Did you see that dip coming? This is what happened.

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I am just telling the story about a little noob exploring the Big Bad Crypto-verse and mak... [more]

1 year ago

Topics: Fear, Inflation, Stocks, ETH, Bitcoin, ...

Howdy Folks,

No, I am not late I just was waiting on the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) Data before I wanted to forecast anything. Now the CPI data was slightly (0.2%) higher than expected.

Stocks dumped, Crypto dumped all because the year-over-year inflation went up slightly more than expected.

This means that people just have no money to buy risky assets.

At the same time, this will push the dollar up, making people even less interested in buying crypto or stocks.

Personally, I kinda expected this to happen and sold what I could sell this morning. Well, I already made a 5% profit on that sale, but it was not only the CPI that worried me. It was also that the ETH merge that is less than 2 days away did nothing for the ETH tokens. Those were frozen, while BTC was running up.

These two things did not sit well with me so I agreed with myself to see what the market looked like at 12CET and then sell my play coins that were over 10% in profit. Not much just about $150, but I am not buying this dip.

Don´t Buy The Dip

So normally I love buying the dip, but there is FUD in the air!

The FED will raise interest rates and as this month's CPI is higher it will make the FED for sure not to lower the rate hike. That hike is coming next week Wednesday and will not have a positive effect.

In addition, that whole ETH merge is going to increase selling pressure. As ETH currently locked with centralized staking services or pools should become available. There also is a slight chance that something goes wrong during the merge, but the biggest issue I see is:

Mainstream Media Does Not Give A F About The Merge

And if the mainstream media does not care, no new money is flowing into the space short-term. So people are selling the news while no new blood is buying this rumor.

Of course, the crypto freakies love this merge, and indeed it might be a fundamental change. But if there is no money coming in then prices do not move.

And if we add the CPI and FED FUD coming in, prices do move but in the downwards direction. So for the next week, I foresee that to be the one and only direction.

Even though today´s dump is an overreaction, with no positive news coming from the FED we will have a high risk of going below 20K within the next week.

On the bright side, we might see a little pump on the day of the merge, and I will sell the fluf out of what I have in profit. Winter might not be coming, but it´s also not going yet.

The Crypto Weather Forecast is my take on the crypto market, sometimes serious, sometimes sarcastic, often with a wink, and Always Honest.