That being said, the incidence of coronavirus may increase anew in the winter. Discussions are also taking place on the possible 'second wave' of infection. But what is the risk in Bangladesh?
The World Health Organization said last September that infections were growing at an alarming rate in various parts of the northern hemisphere before winter. The agency also warned that the epidemic could take a more severe form in the winter.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has also instructed to prepare in advance, expressing fears that the situation may worsen in Bangladesh as well. The health ministry has said it will address the situation with a roadmap following instructions from the head of government.
SM Alamgir, chief scientific officer at the government's Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, IEDCR, however, says the more the risk increases in winter, the less likely it is that tropical Bangladesh will.
Even if the coronavirus does not become more dangerous in winter, health experts say there are several reasons for the increased risk in winter due to the lifestyle of the people of Bangladesh.
According to them, how fragile the situation will be during the change of seasons depends on seasonal diseases, human behavior and government management.
However, since no vaccine or effective drug has yet been developed, the only way to avoid coronavirus in winter, like in summer, is to follow strict hygiene rules.
Although the number of coronavirus laboratories has increased in the country, the number of tests has decreased
The land of winter, the land of summer
The UK's Academy of Medical Sciences has warned in a report that 120,000 people could die in Covid hospitals between September and June if the country's worst winter conditions occur.
The first outbreak of the epidemic killed more than 40,000 people in the UK. Infections and deaths have been declining since last July, but have been on the rise since September.
In many cold countries like the United Kingdom, many experts believe that the second stage of infection has started after the change of seasons.
However, SM Alamgir, chief scientific officer of IEDCR, said that unless the one-year cycle is completed, nothing can be said for sure about the effects of winter and summer on the nature of coronavirus transmission in Bangladesh.
“Now the hypothesis from Europe or America is that winter will actually increase the coronavirus. But the seasons are different in Bangladesh. Winter there means the temperature dropped below 4 to 5 degrees Celsius. 14 to 15 degrees Celsius even in winter in Bangladesh. We call it winter, but it's not that cold. It's better not to talk about temperature now. ”
The climate of most parts of neighboring India is similar to that of Bangladesh. Indian researchers are also worried about winter.
Researchers at IIT-Bhubaneswar and AIIMS said in a study last July considering the temperature, the incidence of coronavirus in India could increase during the monsoon and winter seasons.
India, the world's second-largest infectious disease, has already surpassed 6 lakh patients, killing more than 100,000 people.
And so far 3 lakh 73 thousand people in Bangladesh have been officially reported to have been infected. The death toll has reached about five and a half thousand.
Whatever the risk in winter, there is no alternative to complying with hygiene rules, Alamgir said, adding, "The lower the temperature, the longer the duration of these viruses. We have to keep that in mind. There is nothing to relax or be afraid of when winter comes. We have to be careful. ”
In the midst of the coronavirus epidemic, workers have to leave their homes every day to make a living.
How the risk increases
Former Dean of the Faculty of Medicine, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, Professor. ABM Abdullah says changes in people's lifestyles during the winter may also increase the risk of coronavirus infection.
“Since the doors and windows are closed in winter, the coronavirus actually grows in a closed room. That is why it is said that the risk of coronavirus infection is less if the light and air flow properly. But in closed rooms it leads. That is why there is a fear. ”
And his comment on the risks of Bangladesh: “This infection started in China last winter. Its severity has been seen more in cold countries. It is now on the rise in many temperate countries. All in all, it may increase again in the coming winter. ”
Experts have been emphasizing on regular hand washing since the beginning of the epidemic to stay away from the virus. If people neglect to wash their hands due to the cold during the winter, or if they do not follow the rules of physical distance, the danger can increase, warned the public health expert Dr. Mushtaq Hossain.
He told "People come in more close contact during the winter. In the village, the turn-festival, sociality is more at this time. As a result, people come closer, so people will be more at risk of infection. ”
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Winter is relatively short in Bangladesh, but in it people suffer from various diseases. Fever, cold-cough, respiratory infections, cold diarrhea, diarrhea, conjunctivitis and dermatitis are common winter ailments.
Last winter, from November 1 to February 19 this year, more than 5 lakh 36 thousand people were infected with various cold-related diseases in the country, of which 61 died.
The problem is that some of these symptoms are similar to those of coronavirus. Professor ABM Abdullah thinks that if coronavirus and cold-related diseases grow together, it will be a cause for fear.
The incidence of corona will increase in winter. That’s why we need to be aware from the individual level. So we all should follow the instructions of the government very well. Thank you very much for publishing such a public awareness article about Corona virus:)