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The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Prediction!

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Written by   260
3 months ago

This is a really hard election to predict, but this map is my prediction for the final result of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

The biggest question is whether the early/mail-in voting will significantly change things. My map above is basically based only on the polls and the idea that some states will start to revert back to how they normally vote. However, the early voting could change that significantly. If so it is hard to know who it would benefit most, but I would guess it might benefit Democrats because they are more likely to want to vote early. Traditionally Democratic groups, like younger people and racial minorities, are also known to vote less often than older and white people. Democrats may be able to take advantage of early voting to narrow that gap in turnout.

This is a pretty clear, but not overwhelming, victory for Biden. Based on polls it seems like the Coronavirus response and worsening economy have brought Trump down. Biden is also generally more well-liked than Trump, although Trump might be seen as stronger. Both candidates are dogged by concerns about their age. Based on most polls the debates slightly helped Biden. The issue of the Supreme Court has motivated Democratic turnout after Trump replaced a popular liberal judge, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, with a Conservative. This has given conservatives a majority on the court for probably at least 25 years, but may cost some Republicans their elections.

There are also a number of states here that could go either way. Of the Trump states: Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa could go for Biden without it being too surprising. However, all of those went for Trump by solid margins in 2016, and I think some voters there will go back to how they normally vote. Of the Biden states: Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan could definitely go for Trump. Arizona and North Carolina are normally Republican, but Biden has been polling well in both for weeks. Wisconsin and Michigan are normally Democratic, and Biden leads in polls in both, but Trump surprised everyone by winning them both in 2016. Pennsylvania is more of a stretch, as polls there show Biden up by higher margins.

This election could go either way, and it's unlikely to be a very one-sided result, but I think Biden is definitely the favorite to win. There is also a question about when we will actually find out the results, since the mail-in ballots could take a long time to count. It may be several days until we know the final results. This may lead to an early Republican lead that turns into a Democratic victory as more of those ballots are counted. Hopefully, whatever the result is, it is clear enough that both sides have to accept it without any violence.

My map was made here: https://www.270towin.com/maps/J0vly feel free to make your own map and share it in the comments!


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Written by   260
3 months ago
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Comments

Is there a final result now? For Biden will win.. Only if Trump won't use his money and power to manipulate the results...

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3 months ago

The results probably wont be final for another day or two unfortunately. There are a lot of mail-in ballots left to be counted.

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3 months ago

Trump is leading according to the news I have watched just now.. He even leads in Pennsylvania,

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3 months ago

You think Biden doesn't use his money? Even other countries pay high amounts for the campagnes. Germany did and hoped Hillary Clinton would win. You seem to forget you don't need skills, just money to be president and others dictate what you say.

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3 months ago

Of course i know... All politicians are like that anyway.. Now biden is leading and trump will complain ar Supreme court.. And those people in charge are under his power.. So there is a possibility that he will win again. .as i have said, with the use of MONEY AND POWER everything is possible

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3 months ago

It is more about worldwide they want the same political parties to reign... People like Trump are harder to buy and Biden is the tool to get a female in his place after the 'Hillary' disaster. Media worldwide worked 4 years to break Trump. Strange how they never did this to Obama....

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3 months ago

But if you based it on trump's performance, i guess he won't win.. And many doesn't like him anymore.. Maybe it's time for new one... And if you will compare obama and trump, i guess Obama is better.. That is why he was unbreakable during those times

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3 months ago

If I see the map now Trump win in most states but Biden has more votes. I wonder how that most be. I doubt a Hillary Clinton or Biden would have done it better, neither would have Obama. We know how the Americans responded as he tried to forbidden weapons. I think there's more going on here, just like there was and will be with the elections in Europe. Trump is in the way if it comes to that bigger plan. No American will stay inside to avoid getting infected and many will go for that vaccination no matter the side effects.

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3 months ago

Good one

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3 months ago

Awesome

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3 months ago

Whoever wins, I wish that change will come for the good of the people

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3 months ago

Great article boss

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3 months ago

Great prediction here. Interesting that you think early voting might favour the Democrats - here in the UK, early/postal voting tends to favour the right over the left because the right has an older voter demographic. Having said that, I suppose that students might also make heavy use of postal voting - and they tend to vote left of centre.

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3 months ago

I was thinking about how older voters might vote by mail more, but I think that is balanced out by Trump encouraging his supporters to vote in person. I think that will backfire on him completely. Things come up, people are tired after work, people might be sick, so I think some people who wait until election day to vote (mostly Trump supporters) will decide today not to bother with it. Not a lot of people mind you, but perhaps enough to make a difference, especially since there are a number of very close states.

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3 months ago

That's a very good point. It always seems a little strange to me that US Presidential elections are held in November - when the weather is likely to have turned. I wonder if it suppresses turnout at all? Here in the UK, general elections can fall at any time but they tend to be in the summer/spring (with the most recent one being an exception as it was in December).

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3 months ago

We all hope a great change will come out from it. Anticipating for a better thing. Checked your map and can say its great

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3 months ago

I think also it is really hard.

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User's avatar Ahb
3 months ago

Biden might win but no way he's going to get 306

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3 months ago

Yeah we'll see, but at this point it does look at least closer than I had predicted. I"ll definitely do an article once we have final results.

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3 months ago

Sounds good. But if Biden wins, SJWs will be institutionalized!

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3 months ago

It was amazing. I'm waiting for ur next article.

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3 months ago

Your prediction makes it hard for Trump to win

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3 months ago

Let's hope Biden. Had enough of Trump. 4 years is more than enough. Nice map by the way.

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3 months ago

Yeah, I'm of the same mind. I think the Democrats and Left in general need to leave behind a lot of language policing and political correctness focused politics, which I think helped get Trump elected, and focus more on the issues. Dems could be more effective, but I'm hoping Biden wins.

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3 months ago

Great article

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3 months ago

Thanks

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3 months ago

Awesome writing skills

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3 months ago

Thanks!

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3 months ago