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Leaving without discretion - The likely hodler who has given up most of his BTC
Someone who had more than 793 bitcoins saved since 2012, so for at least 9 years, decided this Monday (12/07) to transfer 740 BTC to a wallet. Maybe you've already read this news, on several websites about cryptocurrencies, but what nobody told you is that this same address also contains BCH, after all those who before August 2017 had Bitcoin received the same amount of coins in BTC and BCH wallets , consequence of the network division (hardfork), and this person spent almost nothing of BCH for almost 5 years, therefore he has been holding ("hodler") BitcoinCash for a long time as well.
Surely the moved BTCs were sold, how can I say that? Now, no one who has been holding bitcoin for so long would move their coins just for moving, because the longer these coins stay in a safer and more private wallet, I won't elaborate on this explanation, but in view of this fact, it would only do this, if he suspected that his wallet might no longer be secure, if maybe he suspected that someone might have had access to his password or something, another explanation would be, if these were lost coins and that only now he was able to redeem, but notice that both situations are not sustainable, as he kept 59 BTC still at this address, which corresponds to more than 1 million dollars, sweep an address and leaving 59 BTC makes no sense. Which leads me to say with 99.9% confidence that it was a sale.
So reflect with me... This guy saw the BTC go up from 6 dollars in 2012 to 20 thousand in 2017 and he didn't sell, he then saw the BTC hit 30k and didn't sell, kept the currency until it doubled in value to 60k and didn't sell. And now that the market is down, he sells 740 BTC, but he doesn't move his BCH, which also literally cost him nothing, as he "magically" received them all in his wallet, if he had sold his BCH he would have earned 370 thousand dollars, and could save some of his "precious" BTC, but he didn't, on the contrary, this person only sold approximately 3 BCH in all that time.
Maybe you've read this far and don't understand what I'm getting at, but I'll give you a hint. Since the pandemic, BTC's dominance has only dropped, it was approximately 70% in December 2019 and today it is at 46%, so this guy is an individual who represents what is happening in the market today. He's selling BTC and buying Altcoins, that's what he's doing, as he must have reasoned that the risks of staying with BTC are greater than not diversifying his portfolio, as he's seeing BTC lagging behind in many ways, like the market, while some defend the BTC as an value reserve, this person understands that the BTC has not evolved, and this disqualifies the sustainability of this argument.
The BTC mining has not returned to normal and this combination of factors must have made this guy afraid, remember, not even the fall of 2018 left him like that! Maybe he has a bad feeling about this low hashrate juncture, after all, weird things are happening. This action by China, which is happening right now with the criticism made against mining companies, who can guarantee that these miners will return? We are seeing a strong and growing rise in ESG standards for the cryptocurrency market.
Competing cryptocurrencies of BTC defending POS-type mining over POW. Lightning Network (LN) and the other DeFi protocols that don't advance BTC, Taproot that neither reduced fees nor significantly improved privacy. The totally spurious and artificial need to collude with El Salvador's politicians and bankers, in order to be a currency adopted by a nation, but which unfortunately will have a forced course, certainly does not have enough power to provoke an uproar in investors to the long term, while the novelties that altcoins such as BCH bring are in full expansion and attracting thousands of investors.
Thus, if before being cautious was having BTC and running away from altcoins, today the scenario is reversal, BTC may even make up most of your portfolio, but the market sentiment is that this tends to change over the years , and apparently the advertising of a bitcoin address made things clearer, allowing us to see one of the first sailors jumping overboard from a possibly adrift boat.