July and August will determine whether the bull cycle continues or will come to an end.
Time and again, friends are asking me whether the bull cycle has already come to an end and that currently, most of us are in the denial stage.
As always, I answer them 'NO."
The dips we witnessed in the market from last May to the present were purely a bitcoin issue related to China and a mass migration of hashrate (and machines for mining) out of the country. Added to this is the issue of the adverse environmental effects brought about by power-hungry mining.
Forced selling and panic from day traders are temporary, but fundamentally nothing has changed and the stock-to-flow model and most bullish indicators are still intact. We may see death crosses, support levels being broken and more resistance levels being created but all of these do not invalidate the stock-to-flow model and most indicators which says that we are still in the bull cycle.
The month of July, particularly starting on the third week until end of August will be crucial for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin manages to shatter all the resistance levels up to 47K which includes a very strong resistance at 43K, then the road back to 60K will be easy. Bitcoin sets the motion and altcoins will just follow, hence, there is no use on flaunting all those bullish patterns of altcoins without correlating with Bitcoin.
However, these are just my opinion. I have been in the crypto space since early 2014 as a hodler and trader but that does not mean that I am infallible. I made and will make a lot of wrong moves and calls too, just like anyone else. Nothing herein may be considered as a financial or investment advice neither a buy or sell signal.
