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This image was posted in Twitter by Raoul Pal. I believe all or at least most of you already knew him.
The image shows #Bitcoin's move last 2013 (blue line) and it's move this year (white line, reason why it is unfinished. On the right side (blue font) is the price of Bitcoin last 2013, and on the left side (white font) are the price targets for this year. This is the chart being relied on by those who believe that Bitcoin will skyrocket to 250K by the end of this year or early next year. Also this is why many believe that this bull cycle is following that of 2013 not 2017.
But I take it with some important modifications. I still believe that the May crash is one that is unnatural, more of manipulation by whales aggravated by FUD made by Elon Musk, China and United States SEC. It is the month in which the move of Bitcoin started to separate and dive significantly than the 2017 move. You may notice the wider space starting May compared to the much narrow space from January to April. Also, you may notice that short period from March to April in which Bitcoin made a separate and higher move than the 2017 move.
The way I seevit, the wider space lower than the 2017 line which Bitcoin made already invalidates the 250K target by end of year or early next year. Unless, there is a catalyst that could propel Bitcoin immediately to 60K then it could go back on track to 250K. We all know that this is more likely not the case. So what's most probable target right now?
I believe it is between 100K to 110K by end of year or early next year. This correspond to the stock-to-flow model made by Plan B. Although the derivation of both are totally different, the at least 100K target is somehow bolstered by each other. In a set of answers where you do not know the right answer, of course, you will rely on the answer backed by majority or plurality, rather than being alone or different.
Let us assume that the May crash did not happen, where could the price be now? It is still not above 80K in my opinion. It could just be a little above 70K or let us say a difference of almost 30K than the current price. The model assumes real FOMO to set in above 125K to propel the end of price to 250K and above. Since, the adjusted price is between 100K to 110K, I do not think this will happen anymore unless the prolonged bull cycle theory become a reality, supported by positive news and hype. At the current landscape this is difficult knowing the number of new players with paper hands.