Lockdown has not reduced the warming?

Although the global lockdown has significantly reduced carbon emissions due to the severity of the coronavirus, it has not had much of an effect on global warming. A new study by scientists has found that the effects will be minimal in the future.

In a research report published in the scientific journal Nature last May, scientists gave the good news of a reduction in carbon emissions. The report notes that the lockdown has reduced global carbon emissions by about 17 percent. Compared to the same period last year, about 16 million tons less carbon was emitted during the days of the lockdown.

However, another study by Nature, published on August 6, 2020, said that although greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution levels were much lower than before, they did not have much of an impact on global warming. Scientists say that the trend of rising temperatures by 2030 could be only 0.01 degrees Celsius. Not that it won't work, but it's much more disappointing than scientists expect.

Scientists hope that if Corona succeeds in greening governments and states in the near future and reducing overuse of fossil fuels, it will not be impossible to stop temperatures from rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius in the middle of this century. Scientists are therefore looking to governments for goodwill and to the best of their ability to keep pace with global warming.

How was the study done?

The study, conducted jointly by scientists from the three countries, is based on dynamics data from Google and Apple Maps. It provides real-time information about travel and work patterns over time. So it is easy to get an idea about emissions. The study analyzed changes in transportation, office and factory work patterns and emissions of 10 different greenhouse gases and air pollutants. 123 countries were included in the data analysis; Together, they are responsible for about 99 percent of fossil fuel emissions. Researchers found that global carbon dioxide emissions fell by more than 25 percent and nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 30 percent in April 2020.

This rate of decline shows that rapid changes in human behavior can make a big difference to emissions in the short term. However, scientists acknowledge that it is impossible to maintain such a lockdown. This will adversely affect the larger interests of the country and the economy. Scientists therefore want to emphasize zero-emissions.

Why the warming has not decreased?

According to the study, in April 2019, the amount of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide and other emissions around the world decreased by 10 to 30 percent. The lowest rate of decline was in April between January and June 2020. But the simultaneous reduction of emissions does not have much effect on reducing the rate of temperature rise. The reason, the researchers say, is that if the amount of one gas decreases, the warming decreases, but if the amount of another gas component that helps to reduce the temperature decreases, the warming increases. As seen in Corona, the emission of these two types of material is decreasing. In this way, the amount of greenhouse gases is slightly reduced, but in fact they are negating each other's effects on global warming. And that's why scientists don't see the possibility of a major downturn in global warming as a whole.

For example, researchers say, nitrogen oxides emitted from vehicles play a role in raising temperatures. When coal is burned again, sulfur dioxide is emitted from it. This sulfur dioxide again helps to create a coating in the atmosphere, which reflects sunlight back into space and helps keep the earth cool. The result is a kind of balance. Now that these two have been reduced in the lockdown, the positive effect of sulfur dioxide is no longer being felt, although there is no additional warming due to nitrogen oxides. As a result, the temperature is not decreasing or decreasing.

What are the researchers saying?

The 14-member research team is led by Professor Pierce Forster of the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom. The research team also included Harit Forster, an A-level examinee from Queen Margaret School in the United Kingdom, daughter of Forster. Among the other 12 members of the research team were nine from the United Kingdom, two from Germany and one from the United States.

Forster said,

"By using the experience and opportunities of this time, we can lead our economy towards a green economy. We can invest in environmentally friendly industries. And it will have a huge impact on our future global climate."

According to him, a 0.3 degree Celsius rise in temperature by 2050 could be avoided if efforts were made to revive the economy, stimulate greenery and reduce fossil fuel investment. People learn to turn around in times of crisis, so this scientist considers this time to be the best time to deal with crises.