Our neighbour died
It was 11 PM. I was browsing on my computer when there was a sudden commotion in the hallway. Probably a bunch of merry-makers on a normal Friday evening, I thought. I ignored.
I minded my own business until the constant heavy stomping and chatter bogged my peace. I pretended to get out of my room to use the loo and investigate. There I saw three guys in white-collared top and black pants uniform. Two were having a a serious discussion. The last guy looked busy filling out a paper he was awkwardly trying to complete while standing.
Something was what's up. I didn't bother asking. Would be cheeky I reckon.
Morning, the next day, we received an email from our house officer. Someone died last night. I didn't recognise the name, I barely knew anybody. I am more acquainted with the faces more than the real names of my neighbours. But I was keen to know.
Lunchtime. I was at the kitchen and as soon as another neighbour entered I promptly asked who died. My neighbour said I knew "abc". Of course, I did. Shame. I didn't know what his real name despite multiple encounters and quick chit chat.
How did he die? And how soon was it known for people to realise he was dead, in his room, alone?
Nobody knew. It's confidential, of course. And the result of the query will not be shared to the dwellers.
But we have a theory.
"ABC" was a big man. Not your generous definition of "big". He is up that scale with a BMI above 40. Young, late 30's. He was constantly busy too. I saw him in three different uniforms. And going to work in the wee ours of a cold morning, late in the afternoon or clocking in a graveyard shift. He was a hustler.
We believe, he died a natural death related to chronic disease i.e. Diabetes. No foul play nor self-harm. But even that, you can't help to ask if he was in pain? Did he fight for his life and tried to ask for help?
Has he got a family? His thick Northern accent cues he is not from London.
I passed by to his room this morning and glanced it's secured using two massive padlocks. And after a day or two we will stop talking about his death and move on with our lives.
Just like that.
Sadly.
RIP "ABC".
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Random Thoughts: Markets, Investment, Crypto #4
Disclaimer: Not investment advice.
The highly anticipated CPI report for the month of May has finally arrived. It recorded 5%, a figure last seen on 2008 and an increase of .8% compared to April. As can be seen on the graph, Energy commodities (fuel and gas) saw major increase in prices on a 12-month period at 54.5%. This is followed by *used cars and trucks* at 29.7%. https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm
In reaction, the US10Y dropped -4.06% on Thursday, although it initially rallied to 1.52 after the report was released.
I searched the word ****transitory factors**** from the FED minutes of the meeting last April as it seems investors are convinced about this narrative for now. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20210428.pdf?ck_subscriber_id=1172887461
Core inflation was expected to ease some later in the year but to ****remain above 2 percent at the end of 2021****, boosted by large *increases in import prices*, a recovery in prices that had been especially affected by the pandemic, and the temporary effects of *supply bottlenecks*. Inflation was then projected to dip slightly **below 2 percent in 2022** as the influence of these ****transitory factors**** diminished, before returning to 2 percent by the end of 2023, supported by sustained tight levels of resource utilisation in labor and product markets.
Here's an article on Investopedia of what performs best on a high inflationary environment. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052913/inflations-impact-stock-returns.asp#:~:text=Value%20stocks%20perform%20better%20in,volatile%20during%20highly%20inflationary%20periods.
**Markets**
QQQ rallied +1.68%, SPY inching higher (to break ATH again?), and IWM price action still above the flag break-out levels.
SLV is still within range (+.35%).
Semiconductors (SMH) has the most interesting chart on thematics. I think every investors now know the story on chip shortages which is expected to persist until 2022.
Here's a weekly chart on various sectors. Healthcare (+2.01%), Finance (-2.37%).
**Crypto**
Crypto will never run-out of interesting news and stories. To start off, South Korea then Thailand ban trading of memecoins and outright useless tokens. This is the regulation I fully support; it is not acceptable that we have scamcoin, cumrocket, more dogcoins trying to replicate Doge's success, etc.
The shutting down of crypto-miners in China continue to escalate as it spread to Yunnan province. On the other hand, El Salvador, the first country to declare Bitcoin as legal tender signals they'll be mining Bitcoin using Geothermal energy. https://decrypt.co/73375/confirmed-china-orders-yunnans-bitcoin-miners-to-cease-operating-by-end-of-june
Glassnode Insights - Bitcoin and Ethereum on-chain transactions fell. I checked my cold wallet and found that if I swap coins/token using the Ethereum network, the fee is now roughly £4-£5 which was as high as £18 last week. De-Fi also showed similar trend. The number of daily Uniswap trade transactions has fallen by 28% since peaking in mid-May suggesting a slowing of demand for tokens.
**Investment**
I surrendered my investment accounts from a Building Society (that shall not be named) this week after I learned that they expose me to 20% Bonds and would not make any changes. I expected to be penalised for the early turn-over but I was surprised to have a drawdown of 19% from this, solely from FEES! I was disappointed about this as I was religiously paying my premium for the last 3 years. On a lighter note, I am out. And I could only live, learn and move on. I have now transferred the funds to equities.
I made 2 trades - CLNE (+30%), SE (+4.5%). I have learned that when secondary and tertiary names begin to randomly pop out to ride on a trend e.g. Meme Trading, that's a good top indicator. As expected, the meme names collapsed this week. While many made hundreds of thousands to even millions, others are sitting on massive losses as well.
**Downtime Read**
The Great Unbundling https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations
**Pod**
Fooled by ‘The Dream’ and Saved by Global Macro · Erik Townsend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wS2i2TY7itI
/End
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Random Thoughts: Markets, Investment, Crypto #3
**Memestonks Rockets to the Moon**
The meme-stonk mania continue to be unabated this week. This time, $AMC dethroned $GME as the meme-stonk god, up >2000% year-to-date return. Its intraday volatility swing was $35, and the beauty of it all, its float is more than 400million shares!
If we may recall, RoaringKitty aka DFV was the OG of Gamestop, who has been posting his investment thesis on the company since 2019. However, it only gained massive traction after the company restructured its board members. Wallstreetbets redditors banded together to take GME to the moon armed with speculative fundamental reasoning but smart enough to know that the company was shorted to oblivion at an astonishing 120% short interest. Therefore, according to them, hodling could potentially trigger a squeeze similar to Volkswagen in 2008. *I was on reddit and discord while all of these were happening. What an experience!* https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty
Despite its collapse, the short interest chatter on r/wallstreetbets never died down. Shilled names on the daily discussions were the top most shorted stocks. GME has always been the number 1 mentioned ticker and retail were unabashed in accumulating the stock.
In hindsight, this triggered a round 2 and lately, a round 3. This time around, AMC took the spotlight. I have friends calling themselves apes and sweared to hodl with their dear lives because according to a random post on Twitter, AMC is going to "100K".
If I wasn't trading, I wouldn't bat my eye on outliers like this, and would conclude that it's stupid. My perspective and mindset changed when an elite trader I look up to reasoned that this kind of event is good stupidity. Traders do not care if $AMC will go to Mars at 500/share, traders will make money to the upside and down. For him, market mania like Gamestop, AMC or Dogecoin are opportunities to make money and shouldn't be dismissed. To add, renowned money managers like Ray Dalio and Stanley Druckenmiller changed their minds on Bitcoin. They now own it. Why? They focus on what's in front of them. When the narrative changes so as their minds. It's just another trade.
**Markets**
I'm on the look-out of stocks that formed good bases on QQQ. Technicals look promising with 10SMA above all the others and 20SMA pointing upwards. If this continues, breakouts will be sustained on Tech stocks. Leaders for now are RBLX, UPST, CELH, and TIGR. DOCU made an episodic pivot on earnings report last Friday.
Silver is still holding the flag which is technically better than Gold. I am currently following SLV and GLD names and was thinking of initiating leveraged position on SLV but am not keen enough to use leverage at this time.
Oil names followed thru this week after it broke-out last week following the OPEC+ news. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-seen-sticking-with-supply-plan-irans-oil-yet-return-2021-06-01/
**Crypto**
There's another round of FUD on Bitcoin which is the death cross (50SMA crosses below 200SMA). I'm excited. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp
**Investment**
I decided to switch all of my S&P 500 Index holdings to Emerging Markets Index. I was lucky enough to make the transfer before EEM make a breakout 1st of June. Immediately, my Long Term account is at an all-time high. However, with the recent Biden executive order, anything can happen next week. Again, I'm embracing the stupidity of the world and focus what's in front of me. If this gives opportunity to trade to the Short side, I'll bite. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/03/us/politics/biden-ban-chinese-firms-trump.html
By end of month, I will divesting my FTSE100 holdings and switch to FTSE250. I'm just waiting for the Q2 dividend pay-out and then I'll make the transfer. I am extremely bullish on Brexit but owning FTSE100 which is heavy on Oil doesn't seem to make sense in the next 20 years.
Reads
Millennials are Running out of Time to Build Wealth https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2021-millennials-are-running-out-of-time/
Pods
Vitalik Buterin: Ethereum 2.0, Lex Fridman Podcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW0QZmtbjvs
Real Vision Finance Daily Briefings and Interviews
Disclaimer: The views expressed on this blog are personal opinions only and should not be construed as financial advice. While all attempts are made to present accurate information, it may not be appropriate for your specific circumstances and information may become outdated over time. Please make sure to do your own due diligence and seek a trusted financial professional before making any financial decisions of your own.
HAGW!
/END.TBP
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I Think Anton Kreil is an a**hole, a troll BUT...
Pre-Kreil
Early 2020, the world was blanketed with an off-putting atmosphere when it was clear that the virus escaped Wuhan and it was on its way to cause suffering to the world. There were lockdowns of massive cities in Asia and everyone in North America and Europe was confused on want to do with the exponentially spreading Corona Virus. And like everyone else in Great Britain, on March 23, 2020, I was glued on youtube watching Boris Johnson live to address the nation to discuss the government's plan to curve the R-naught of the seemingly unstoppable Corona. On his speech, he dropped that the United Kingdom will be put on national lockdown which would last for months. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlJIwTd9fqI
Next day, the market crashed like a *"soufflé under a sledgehammer"*. Absolutely, nothing was spared - equities, commodities, bonds, crypto - everything was slammed! My long term account hit a max drawdown of up to -34% and my value, dividend account, composed of LSE equities was a total wreckage. As a novice market participant, I had moments when I was unsure to even check my account. Bloodbath! 🩸🩸🩸
More than a month into the lockdown, I was intrigued by the idea of a "dead cat bounce" and, K and V-shaped recovery market narratives . Of course, there was really nothing much to do on my day offs other than the awkward social distancing at the Regent's Park of us who were getting our limited daily exercise.
It was almost a daily grind of mindless navigation of the app watching interviews that would interest me until the day I stumbled upon a decade old reality TV BBC show, Million Dollar Traders. I thought it was a great show! So, I watched the whole lot, 1 hour per episode. Whilst the participants were interesting, I decided to search who the manager was to know his credentials. This bloke's name was Anton Kreil. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXno18pOHgo
And voila! He actually had a decent youtube blueprint, a twitter handle, and a website to boot. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcgaoWXUKFl-P3rdNXCuWjg https://twitter.com/AntonKreil https://antonkreil.com/
Okay.
Anton was an ex-Goldman Sachs trader, now a managing director of Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM) which offers courses and bootcamps for retail traders. Truth-be-told, I had copies of his programmes that I parasitically got from the internet. What can I say, I was resourceful! 🕵🏻♂️I watched them all. And I wasn't even trading nor do I know about the complexities of macroeconomics, charting and indicators, and options trading. But I did and enjoyed every moment of it.
Then I started following Anton on Twitter, account was unverified but legit nonetheless. And the more I've read about his tweets, I realised how different he acts on twitter versus, say, during lectures, webinars and interviews. On twitter, he does not hesitate calling people bums, idiot or stupid. He is vocal with his politics and engages in social media petty smackdown. He had beef with other traders and even to one of this former ITPM educators. He doesn't give a sh**!
While that aggressive, chad persona he seem to exude could be discouraging, Anton has a viral video uploaded 5 years ago titled, "10 Secrets to Achieve Financial Success" I found valuable. I watch it multiple times I've lost count; and transcribed it for my reference. In fact, it made so much impact in my life, that I wrote it on my whiteboard for me to be reminded everyday.
Below is the list of the 10 secrets and thoughts about each one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a51wQAOGR4
**10 Secrets to Achieve Financial Success**
**Respect money and be indifferent towards it.**
"What do you think of $20, $100, $1000, $5000? What do you think a $20 thinks of you? It doesn't think. It is a piece of paper with a number written on it. It is a commodity that is used to satisfy ones wants and needs. The problem with of people - all the problems with money exist with them not with money. Money doesn't think of you. The key is to be indifferent. Reduce your emotion to zero.
How can you be respectful and at the same time indifferent? Respect in this context is simply having awareness of what money actually is and being indifferent when you see more and more of it."
This is extremely powerful yet a mentality that is very difficult to tame. We may not react if we see 10pence under our sofa but the emotional impact of seeing and holding £1,000 (for example) is miles different.
I "*gamify*" the way I view money. I respect it because without money I won't have roof over head, nor will I have food to eat. But, I see the balance on my excel as just numbers now. And my task, like a video game, is to add zeros and more zeros. And if I have more of it, so what? It only means, I can afford even more wants and needs; nothing else.
**Rent to own. Define assets and liabilities properly.**
Mortgage is the biggest liability someone takes on their life but for a bank, that is an asset. It is preferable to buy it in cash. To borrow money in order to finance a lifestyle that they can afford right now in cash. An alternative is to rent. Renting can actually be an asset because you have no risk, you can leave anytime and you have total freedom. And freedom is an asset. If you can, buy everything in cash. Rent for 10-15 years, even if the property price goes up doesn't matter. You own it for cash and you have no liability in between. This infrastructure that is built in the West where people borrow money to eventually own assets that have liabilities in between is not designed to benefit you. It is primarily designed to benefit the owners of the infrastructure.
Renting versus owning is wildly debated in the FIRE community. As a FIRE blogger myself, I'm convinced that I am better off renting versus owning my own place. The math makes sense to me and based on my personal circumstances, I refused to be eyeballs deep in debt while curtailing my freedom to move whenever and wherever I want. I must point out that this is not an exclusive world view because not all home ownership is bad. What is bad is getting into a 30% "shared ownership" 30-year mortgage of a 1 to 2-bedroom apartment in Central London for £400,000 only to downgrade your lifestyle because what is left of your bones 30 years in the future to afford the remaining 70%?
I have colleagues who are convinced that ownership is better that renting, who confusingly view such ownership as an asset because they argue that they could sell the house for more in the future to the next sucker. And then what? Move to a small bungalow? Or to a residential accommodation?
My goal is to buy my house in cash. Period.
**Build and own your own infrastructure.**
From zero to owning an asset and having no liabilities during that period. Save and build your asset base. During that period, it is easy for you to get job somewhere. Build your own business. Live well within your means and having no liabilities like mortgages, CC, overdraft facilities, cars. Drop your pride and be prepared to share apartments. In this process, you are building your own pension. Across the US and Europe, the annual national average salary is equivalent to what an average person's pension value is when they retire. When means, everybody downgrades their lifestyle when they retire or rely on their children. In-source your pension infrastructure then insurance (home, health, etc). Become wealthy to create your own insurance. Next, credit report companies - it is absurd that you get scored on your ability to borrow - the higher your score, the more you can borrow. Do the opposite of what everybody tells you to do. It is difficult to begin with but it gets easier overtime. The key is to generate passive income and cashflow. Make money while you sleep and it becomes exponential. It take 20 years to become an overnight success.
I always wanted my own business but was too afraid to even start. This video literally was the final push for me to pull the trigger and just get on with it and open my shop. It's been 9 months since I started that business and now I am on the look-out of opening another one.
**Travel. Get perspective.**
When you travel you get a perspective of other countries' economies, economic infrastructure and society. When you build your own infrastructure, you get freedom. Freedom of time, to work on your own agenda, create your own schedule. Freedom is the most valuable asset you will ever own. Traveling allows you to appreciate that. Be on the road for a year or two and see everything that the world has to offer.
How do you know what you like or enjoy or want until you've seen what's on offer. You don't have all the information. It will also give you the freedom to choose the life that you want and if you know what is out there, you can choose it.
If you don't like where you are and if you build your perfect life already, you can just get on a plane and leave. There is no downside in life because you got what you want already.
Summary: Traveling as early as possible in your life makes you appreciate freedom, working on your own schedule, time and agenda, and also what is possible, what you can possibly own as you find you perfect dream life. Once you understand that, you go to work to get it and you know what's at the end of the road. You know why you are doing it. It brings total clarify.
**Risk is subjective not two dimensional.**
In the real world, risk is subjective to your own personal situation. For example, if you want to quit your job with no risk, you line up another beforehand and you agree to a higher salary with another employer. What if you just quit your job? What is the likelihood of you owing more than $50,000 (for example) in the future? When you calculate your downside vs the upside - your downside is $50,000 which in reality is very small. Your upside is all the money in the world (infinity), even if you have a very small chance of earning infinity, you are still earning more than $50,000. The person that has the $50,000 job to begin with tends to anchor themselves to that number. Then the next step is to take on liabilities that this number can pay for. That is riskier. In that scenario, you feel like you are not taking risk but you are. Because you are taking on lots of liabilities and therefore you can't assess risk objectively. Freedom allows you to look at risk with clarity. You will look at things with very small downside versus the upside. The ideal situation is to assess risk in terms of business where you see huge upside and getting yourself into that situation and repeat it an infinite amount of times so you can become wealthy. Step outside yourself, assess your current situation, then work towards freedom. Assess risk objectively. Position yourself in scenarios all the time where you have very limited downside and business risk but huge upside.
I didn't view risk the way Anton explained it here. The change on my frame of thinking landed me a promotion at work. I also eliminated head hunters who will not cater my own requirements. With this, I was able to filter only the best paying agencies. This year, I will hunt employers that will give me the hours that I want so I could pursue trading uninterrupted because I know these employers exist. For me, this is positioning myself to a situation with limited downside but with huge upside potential.
**Seek out alternative education.**
How to make a success of yourself is not in the curriculum. When you think about teachers, school or University, they will champion the traditional educational system. However, they will always give you debilitating message which is not a requirement to become successful. Your parents are products of traditional educational system and they become protective of you. Because of that they are going to try to make sure that you do the right thing or they think is the right thing i.e. getting a job. Your parents conflict of interest is emotion. Imagine you get a new job or new business, when you go to your parents, they tend to default to an answer "that's too risky." You already know what is good for you. You have to seek out alternative education and seek mentors that do not have a conflict of interest. This begins when you leave University. Say no to your parents in terms of financial and career advice.
If you want financial and career advice, anonymously post your situation on reddit or FIRE blogs. You'll get matter-of-fact, quality, no bullshit comments. If someone opines, it is too risky, someone will argue why it is not. This way, you get different viewpoints and you make the decisions based on essential arguments from people who do not have emotional attachments on you.
I'm a member of a trading discord. This is where I ask other traders novice, advanced and highly profitable ones to challenge my assumptions based on what I see on charts. The more brutal the comments are, the better. This is my alternative education with zero tuition fee.
**Value your time properly.**
The end result of traditional education system - corporate job, monthly salary and probably liabilities. They are working for nothing because at the end of every month, they pay their liabilities and spend what is left. Essentially they are swapping their time for free. The most important business card is your ATM card. These people do not value their time because they don't get anything in return.
This is common sense. Our future is created on what we do today not tomorrow. Elon once said that he works 100hours per week and that Hyperloop is only 2% of his time. How crazy is that!
**Ditch the smartphone.**
I've been the most efficient after ditching my Blackberry. Email functions, messaging system are huge distractions. Totally unsocial. Ditch your smart phone to value your time correctly and get rich. If you understand the financial market, everything that comes on your phone form mainstream media will not make you money. Your job as a trader and portfolio manager is to predict the future. It will massively improve your life. You will become so efficient, your life changes really quick. What's your downside? Test it for a few months.
This is the only point that I do not agree with. I understand where Anton is coming from but my smartphone is my digital wallet. I live cashless for almost 4 years now and I do not want to carry any physical debit or credit card. I also use my phone to listen to podcasts, automate tasks, navigate London, and other useful cool stuff.
**Mainstream media is useless. Don't consume it.**
General and financial news media are both pretty useless. The causality of objectivity on putting yourself to success starts with an understanding that this exist and allowing yourself not to be brainwashed. Have independence of thought and clarity so you see things in an objective manner. Just because it is available doesn't mean it is good for you. For TV they want viewers, for newspapers they want readers for advertising revenue. Online they want clicks. It is designed for you to keep coming back. Only consume what adds value to your own life and objectives. Be very disciplined not to expose yourself to it.
Indeed, media is useless. I'd say, I am no longer cultured. I only consume content that involves the following - crypto-assets, investing and trading. I could care less about anything else.
**Choose role models that suit your objective.**
Mainstream media in the modern age glorifies celebrities end up by default become young peoples' role models. They are disposable commodities. Look for role models who are tangible and suit your objective. Someone with long lasting success and track record on what you want to do. Stick to that principle.
I have read biographies and stories of successful people --- from businessmen, venture capitalists, artists, politicians to celebrities. I only admire the following, Seneca, Marcus Aurelius, Sir Winston Churchill, David Goggins, Steve Jobs and the constantly attacked, Prof Jordan B. Peterson. These people changed my life for the better.
Anton on twitter is a troll. But watch his 10 secrets and I'm pretty sure you'll learn a thing or two.
End.
ⓙ🅾️**Ⓜ️****🅰️**ℓⓢ https://emojipedia.org/circled-m/ https://emojipedia.org/a-button-blood-type/
Random Thoughts: Markets, Investment, Crypto #2
I have been off-sick for over a week now, nursing my lower back injury. Inasmuch as I love my job and my colleagues, I have reached to a point that I would now need physiotherapy, increased pain killer dose, rotational hot and cold compresses, and anti-pain patches; I had no choice but to throw in the white towel and look after myself.
Whilst I'm sitting here comfortably in a near-perfect sitting position, with my electric masseuse grinding and pressing on worse areas, I'm also catching up with my reading and learning about the markets, investments and crypto.
**Markets**
The markets recovered after the the Inflation FUD shake-out the week prior enabling its uptrend intact. There has been follow-up on breakouts and good bounces on previous market leaders that found support on the moving averages.
On the weekly chart, IWM has the best technical set-up, flagging nicely and surfing on the 20SMA. However, it is unclear whether this goes up or down so I'm keeping my eyes peeled on this one. IWM is the iShares Russel 2000 ETF that tracks the investment results of an index composed of small-cap US equities. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239710/ishares-russell-2000-etf
EEM (Emerging Markets) and Europe Markets rallied, the latter, especially the FTSE Developed Europe UCITS ETF (VEUR) hitting an all-time high 🚀. On the other hand, the monthly chart of EEM is perfectly poised for a massive run should it confirm a break-out. I increased my allocation to the Emerging markets starting last month as anticipation but not aggressive enough that it would skew my portfolio should it dip hard towards the moving averages. My investment time-frame for this is decades so I wouldn't sweat. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-developed-europe-ucits-etf-eur-distributing
The Technology sector (1.62%) recovered but Utilities (-1.51%) continue its downtrend. XOP continue its run with a whopping (+52.26%) YTD performance. In retrospect, this was a a very obvious medium term trade idea since the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine announcement in November. This is where inexperience will bite you from behind and miss-out on massive runs like this. We learn and move on.
**Meme Stocks 3.0**
$GME ($222), a Wallstreetbets meme-stonk hall-of-famer started moving again on May 24th which predicated a third run-up, this time, from $174 to $267. Other meme-stocks made massive strides as well like $AMC and $BB. I traded $BB at +20% in 3 trading days. $AMC on the other hand was a squeezer. I was looking at the first supply areas at $35-$36 for a short but I was too afraid to pull the trigger 😂. Could pretty much wipe out my trading account if halts to the upside like $KODK. Not for me. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/chart?p=GME#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOjExLjgyMjkxNjY2NjY2NjY2NiwiZmxpcHBlZCI6ZmFsc2UsInZvbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5Ijp0cnVlLCJhZGoiOnRydWUsImNyb3NzaGFpciI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnRUeXBlIjoibGluZSIsImV4dGVuZGVkIjpmYWxzZSwibWFya2V0U2Vzc2lvbnMiOnt9LCJhZ2dyZWdhdGlvblR5cGUiOiJvaGxjIiwiY2hhcnRTY2FsZSI6ImxpbmVhciIsInN0dWRpZXMiOnsi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiOnsidHlwZSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7ImlkIjoi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJVcCBWb2x1bWUiOiIjMDBiMDYxIiwiRG93biBWb2x1bWUiOiIjZmYzMzNhIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7IndpZHRoRmFjdG9yIjowLjQ1LCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX0sInBhbmVscyI6eyJjaGFydCI6eyJwZXJjZW50IjoxLCJkaXNwbGF5IjoiR01FIiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJpbmRleCI6MCwieUF4aXMiOnsibmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicG9zaXRpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ5YXhpc0xIUyI6W10sInlheGlzUkhTIjpbImNoYXJ0Iiwi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiXX19LCJzZXRTcGFuIjpudWxsLCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdW5kIjp0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwODFmMiIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdWQiOnRydWUsImV2ZW50TWFwIjp7ImNvcnBvcmF0ZSI6eyJkaXZzIjp0cnVlLCJzcGxpdHMiOnRydWV9LCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwicmFuZ2UiOm51bGwsInN5bWJvbHMiOlt7InN5bWJvbCI6IkdNRSIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJHTUUiLCJxdW90ZVR5cGUiOiJFUVVJVFkiLCJleGNoYW5nZVRpbWVab25lIjoiQW1lcmljYS9OZXdfWW9yayJ9LCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkiLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6bnVsbH1dfQ-- https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/
@EricBalchunas tweeted last Friday that for the second day in a row, $AMC was the most traded stock in the world. I was looking at it real-time on IBKR at >500M and that was amazing to watch. From +54% t0 -4% on that insane volume was a different kind of high even as an observer.
Here's the $AMC 3-min chart.
**Crypto FUD Bath - staying familiar**
Glassnode released an insight newsletter last Friday, "Surveying the May 2021 Sell-off" which explained the reasons of the crash and the on-chain indicators and metrics behind the scenes. https://glassnode.com/ https://insights.glassnode.com/surveying-the-may-2021-sell-off/
My takeaways from this newsletter are as follows:
Institutional Demand - Through GBTC metric, demand sank starting late February. A crypto ETF that showed similar pattern is the Canadian Purpose BTC ETF. Outflows intensified starting May 3. https://www.coindesk.com/grayscale-bitcoin-trust-explained
Exchange Dynamics - Large deposits of Bitcoin to exchanges were noted months before the sell-off i.e. illiquid coins (held on institutional custody or wallets migrated back to exchanges as liquid supply). However, this is not trued for all exchanges. Massive deleveraging of derivatives was also noted which created a cascade selling, margin calls and liquidations.
HODLers Behaviour Pattern- "**Old Coins** swell during bear markets as accumulation recommences and wealth transfers from speculators to long term hodlers. **Young Coins** swell during bull markets as holders distribute expensive coins to new, weaker handed speculators."
I found this on reddit and it looks pretty accurate.
De-Fi
Glassnode released a separate newsletter on Decentralised Finance exploring its health and stability amidst broad crypto market selling. https://insights.glassnode.com/defi-uncovered-exploring-the-crash/
Concluding Remarks:
Strong revenue from trading fees and peak volume on DEXs
Healthy lending markets with high collateral, relatively low volatility interest rates, and high utilization among stablecoins
Stablecoins maintaining their peg and continuing to grow in usage
Blue chip resilience vs ETH and ETH's resilience vs BTC
A tweet thread from Raoul Pal, a macroeconomist could give some perspective. https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1397172575810228225
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1397172575810228225
**Downtime Reads 📖**
Cardano and Stellar now tradable at Boerse Stuttgart
One of the largest Swiss banks fears that if it does not offer investments in crypto, it will lose its clients
Trader’s Brain: How To Re-Wire It for the Better
US banks could cut 200,000 jobs over next decade, top analyst says
Bank of America Joins Paxos Network Eyeing Same-Day Stock Trade Settlement
Most Long-Term Profitable Traders are Under Water Most of the Time – (Trading Drawdowns)
An Interview With Chainlink’s Sergey Nazarov
Proposed Legislation in Germany Could Allow $425B to Flow Into Crypto: Report
Deutsche Bank Quietly Plans to Offer Crypto Custody, Prime Brokerage
Bitcoin is officially a new asset class: Goldman Sachs
Ray Dalio: ‘I Have Some Bitcoin’
Dig more coal -- the PCs are coming
Every fifth hedge fund already invests in cryptocurrencies, reports PwC
Chainlink Has the Potential to Disrupt Traditional Finance
What is A Bearish Divergence?
The Week On-Chain (Week 21, 2021)
Stochastics: An Accurate Buy and Sell Indicator
Nothing New Under the Sun
Stanley Druckenmiller: “The greatest investors make large concentrated bets where they have a lot of conviction”
DeFi Uncovered: Navigating the Crash
**Pods 🎧**
How to Exit Your Winning Trades Properly
The Wall St. Jesus Flow Show: May 11th, 2021
Talking To The King of The Degens I Sam Cassatt I Pomp Podcast #555
SotN #46 - The ETH Trade with Su Zhu & Kyle Davies of Three Arrows Capital
The Complete Flow Trader Series: Using Flow With Different Styles of Trading (Episode 1)
Raoul Pal: Holding All Your Money in Crypto | Irresponsibly Long Bitcoin
360% in 19 Months | Google Stock Analysis + IPO Bases | America's Greatest Companies
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Explained | A 10x Return Opportunity?
Risk Management
65 - Crypto, Legacy, and Value | Mark Yusko
Bitcoin Crashed! Who Was Buying And Selling?!
Are Growth Stocks Back in Favor? | RBLX Breaks out Out! | Stock Market Outlook
66 - Crypto’s Existential Threat | MEV Panel: Phil Daian, Georgios Konstanopolus, Charlie Noyes
Kevin O'Leary Buys Bitcoin And Starts Yield Farming | Pomp Podcast #563
FO256: A Digital Assets Conference For Sophisticated Investors
Real Vision Finance Daily Briefing May 29
Enjoy the rest of the weekend!
/END.TBP
Random Thoughts: Markets, Investment, Crypto #1
The S&P 500 at all time high with XLE (Energy) and XOP (Oil and Gas) sectors leading the surge. Leading tech stocks of last year got hammered and are now either hovering on moving averages or completely lost even the 200MA support i.e. ETSY, FSLY, TWLO, DKNG, TWTR, PLTR etc. Pops were being sold off; I guess, institutions aren't keen to buy names with high multiples at the moment. Even AMZN, AMD and FB popped and crapped despite stellar earnings.
Bitcoin is flagging, whilst Ethereum just keeps making all time highs. Will it break 4000 next week? Hold your horses. Doge, a meme coin, ripped thru .70c yesterday but sold off during Saturday Night Lives' air time with Elon, the self-proclaimed Dogefather, awkwardly hosted the show. I had a buy limit order on 20MA at around .40c for a bounce but was not triggered. Nearly but not quite. It would be fun to watch if the dog keeps barking next week or will it finally be put to its cage.
My crypto account has been ripping, and I have also been taking advantage on interest, staking and auto-market making. At current rates, this will outperform my dividend income. I am not trading crypto-assets as of yet as the moves are sorely unpredictable and extremely volatile. But, I am not dismissing this idea, in-fact, I am learning this space as fast as I can as well.
I continue to see improvement on my stocks screening, technical analysis, and ticker recognition, however, I tend to get distracted too easily for the past couple of weeks. I have missed on high Reward/Risk entries costing me 20%-25% upside on these trades like NVAX, BNTX(short), CVNA, X, ALB. The lack of sleep didn't help that much either. The overall sentiment amongst Fintwit traders is that this has been a difficult market to trade at least for the past couple of months - the market is making all time highs but the pops just craps underneath. I have only been trading for less than a year and I am making the dough, so I guess, I am making the right moves.
On the productive side, I have added signals to my arsenal like PCCE and Flow. Although the data for the latter is very difficult to get (available only for Bank of America market insight subscribers). Lastly, I have been adding multiple chart samples on my database. I am only focused Break outs, MACD/MA convergence, Episodic Pivots and Parabolic Shorts/Longs.
Sectors Performance Week-ending 9/5
Major Indices Performance Week-ending 9/5
Ethereum vs Bitcoin
Ethereum is now extended from the 10MA
Dogecoin - was looking at that 20MA. 😂
Downtime Read
I attempted to read the LINK whitepaper 2.0. My head literally hurt. Fortunately, they have visual guides on what they are currently working on, so the illustration made the technicals a tad easier to understand.
Below are the articles I've read this week.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nydig-announces-appointment-of-john-dalby-as-chief-financial-officer-301286384.html
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/may/01/mortgage-prisoners-distressed-and-betrayed-as-mps-reject-interest-cap
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1137122#:~:text=The%20coin%20can%20be%20conveniently,transactions%20using%20QR%20code%20and
https://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-stock-market-crashes-in-history?r=US&IR=T
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/turkish-crypto-exchange-goes-bankrupt-losses-2-billion-usd
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/eu-investment-arm-offers-two-year-notes-in-debut-blockchain-deal
https://decrypt.co/69205/cardano-developer-iohk-strikes-partnership-with-ethiopian-government
Pods
I've watched and rewatched pods this week. Obviously, the contents I devour are market and crypto-related only. If you have any recommendations, let me know.
Bitcoin Maxis versus Ledger & Cobie - UpOnly
Abra: The Future of Crypto Banking (w/ Bill Barhydt and Raoul Pal) - Real Vision Finance
Cardano: The Smart Contract War Heats Up (w/ Ash Bennington & Charles Hoskinson) - Real Vision Finance
Portfolio Construction: Beyond BTC & ETH (w/Jeff Dorman, Joey Krug, Ari Paul, and Raoul Pal) - Real Vision Finance
600% Increase in 9 Months | Pinterest Stock (PINS) | In-Depth Technical Analysis - Richard Moglen
Balaji Srinivasan - Bitcoin and Ethereum, Crypto Oracles, and More - The Tim Ferriss Show
Crypto Billionaire Who Bought $69 Million NFT “Everydays” - Valuetainment
Trading Mindset and Mental Toughness | Interview with Veteran Trader Joe Fahmy - Richard Moglen
The Wall St. Jesus Flow Show: May 4th, 2021 - Sang Lucci
SotN #45 - Chainlink 2.0 with Chainlink God - Bankless
What Is Ethereum? - An Investigation (w/ Raoul Pal, Vitalik Buterin, Joe Lubin, and more) - Real Vision Finance
Sergey Nazarov: Chainlink, Smart Contracts, and Oracle Networks | Lex Fridman Podcast #181
The Stock Market Shakes off Huge Jobs Report Miss | SPX at All Time Highs - Richard Moglen https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/181
Have a great weekend!
/END.TBP
Stonk Chart: Oliver Kell $TSLA Trade 2020
Oliver Kell is the US Investing Champion last year with a juicy return of >900% 🚀🚀🚀. Insane!
I reviewed one of his best trades, $TSLA 🚗.
Oliver's focus is on momentum stocks and his entries and exits are based on the following:
1️⃣ Reversal Extension
2️⃣ Wedge Pop
3️⃣ Base and Break/EMA Crossback
Bought March 19 on 50MA support. Stock showed strength despite market weakness. He sold at 20MA, stating this is were the resistance usually is to the upside.
Bought April 9 on pop (break-out). Sold on earnings.
Bought May 1, EMA crossback. On the chart this is a 20MA support.
Added June 1 - pop.
Ended trade July 13 - fully extended from 10MA.
Bought August 12 after end of base pattern (pop). Exited September 2.
Re-bought September 4, got hit after news that Tesla was not going to be on S&P500.
November 18, bought on episodic event (inclusion to S&P500). Sold November 30.
Bought back December 2 on EMA crossback. Ended trade on January 3, 2021.
What can we learn from his strategy?
✅ Entries on breakout (wedge pop)
✅ Re-entries on MA support (rising)
✅ Sells when extended from 10MA
✅ Follows stock relative strength and story
/END.TBP
The reason why I'm going full retard on crypto. From skeptic to balls-deep.
Raoul Pal's Introduction to the Exponential Age
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tJrla31t8I
GL.
[FinTwit Scoop] 🤯 European Investment Bank to Issue Digital Bonds on Ethereum
****What****?
European Investment Bank will begin using Ethereum to issue two-year digital bonds.
📝 Bloomberg Report https://emojipedia.org/memo/ https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/eu-investment-arm-offers-two-year-notes-in-debut-blockchain-deal
EIB plans to use Ethereum to register €100 million (~$120M) worth of digital notes. Goldman Sachs, Banco Santander, and Société Générale will handle the sale.
🔨 ****Impact**** https://emojipedia.org/hammer/
helps reinforce Ethereum’s value proposition as a “****global settlement layer****.”
If the European Investment Bank and other financial giants are to start issuing payments on Ethereum, mass adoption may be on the horizon.
/END.TBP
[Take-Away Tuesday] Mark Cuban: Present & Future Opportunity of Crypto
Take-away from The Shark's 🦈 interview with UpOnly, April 1, 2021
❓ [Why] deep-dive on Crypto
I got familiar with it [crypto] in 2012 but was never sold on Bitcoin being a currency. Fast forward, when Ethereum and smart contracts start to happen, I started paying attention. Then, De-Fi summer hit (dig in some), and then NFTs (picked up some). Then I started minting NFTs so I can learn. That led me to the royalty standard ➡️ a game changer ➡️ learn more ➡️ solidity and smart contract. From there it's just about the business application and the opportunities, and that's why I really dove in 🤿. Been on it for a while but hardcore 🤘🏼 only for the last 3 - 4 months.
❓ Comment made on Bitcoin in 2013 re: Doubt on Bitcoin as a currency
I never saw (Bitcoin) as a currency. I saw it as a store of value, digital gold. Just a supply and demand issue. It was just a question of when it started becoming more commonplace for people to buy it ➡️ significant increase in price. Lost money when ICO ballooned and learned 📖 some there. But it really wasn't until summer when smart contracts started to evolve and become more available.
Bitcoin is great as a platform. It is accepted now... it is going to replace gold in the portfolios in a lot of people. Hopefully, that will push the price 🆙 as long as the whales 🐳 will continue to huddle.
❓ Realistic timeline for gold to be replaced by Bitcoin
It will be gradual. You are starting to see these ETFs pop up and ways for people to buy it. It is too difficult still to get money into a wallet 👛 just to buy Bitcoin. Until that's simple, people will buy it thru traditional means [like] brokers, Robinhood, Coinbase (to a lesser extent). As there are more opportunity to buy from where the people have their savings or retirements with, that's when you see a chip ⛏️ away at gold. Younger generation are going to trust Bitcoin.
❓ How far can NFTs go
The whole collective thing is just proof of concept for smart contracts. The real money comes from business applications. Example: a [company] has an insurance application that always checks out an oracle for the national weather service for temperature and precipitation. For the Mavericks, we had a weather where it was <0 and a few inches in snow ❄️, and everything closed. I could have bought an insurance on a smart contract that said, if a temp in Dallas goes <0 and we get >2in of precipitation then how much does it cost that you pay me this amount. That's completely different from traditional insurance because it is all driven by a smart contract. It just naturally checks every 30mins the national weather service and if it clicks, it just pay right to my wallet. That's the type of application you are going to see more of...[Health Insurance] bunch of validators on an anonymous basis, looked at the claim and authorise or didn't authorise and if you got 80% of the people authorising it then your claim is approved...
The biggest and coolest stuff is gonna happen in business 👔and entertainment 🎶 rather than arts and collectibles.
❓ Missing infrastructure in crypto now
(1) There is not an efficient connectivity on exchanges. You get a lot of variability. You get liquidity in one place, liquidity is gone, you bounce to another. People try to game the system in a lot of respects and you get rug pulled 🥺. That shouldn't happen if all the DEXs were connected together. (2) Simplifying user interface. Wallets are not easy. And the fact that you need a wallet doesn't make it easy.
We have to build up on simplicity and trust issues in order for this (crypto) to become mainstream.
❓ Gas ⛽ fees pricing retail out
It is not an infrastructure issue. That's more POW vs POS, or any other of the options. It's like the early days of the internet where bandwidth was the biggest impediment 🚧. It was crazy but we knew that at some point bandwidth would open up. Transactions per sec (tps) = bandwidth.
❓ Rationally think long term when everything is frothy 🎈
Remember why you're doing what you're doing. [Bitcoin] The uncertainty of Bitcoin comes down to what the whales 🐳 do because there's so much Bitcoin concentrated in so few wallets at the top - that's a risk factor 😞. And we don't know how much of that is lost and held. But what you need to know is what is the utility. And Bitcoin now has become a platform more than anything else. Ethereum is a better platform but Bitcoin is an SOV platform.
❓ Regulation
The biggest challenge for regulators on [DeFi] is going to be fraud...There's going to be some people who lose money as more newbies come in thinking they're going to get that 30% APY all day everyday. And they don't understand liquidity providers and you see situation where tokens bring in liquidity and it lasts a week or 2 weeks because they buy that liquidity. I think they [regulators] will deal with securitisation and fraud first...Regulation can add trust to it.
❓ Banking System feeling the heat from FinTech or Crypto
I think FinTech will feel the heat first and then banking 🏦. FinTech is taking out chunks from the banking system because they're too slow to do what is obvious. Crypto will do the same thing with FinTech. At its base, DeFi allows anybody to be their own personal banker particularly with over-collateralisation. You are allowed to do almost anything in seconds and you just make your choices and live with the results. If that's get built up and simplified, just like FinTech simplified banking applications; FinTech is going to be the first to get the hit.
❓ "ETH killers" 🔪
I think Eth will figure it out for sure but there's specific value propositions for each of those blockchains (DOT, SOL, etc)...There's going to be a lot of losers. I think Ethereum is good because there are so many developers, and they know what the problem is. The only issue is trying to overcome from POW to POS and what comes with that.
❓ Advice on young people with conviction [on a monetary perspective] 💎🤲
You have to be exceedingly handsome like I am. 😂😂😂 First, you got to figure out what's your definition of success. No matter what age you are, find something you are good at...bust your ass harder 💪 than anybody to be great at it. It becomes easier to monetise, you get fired up and you make things happen. The thing about crypto right now is that it is changing 100miles/hr every second, every day...That's an opportunity for everybody. If you outwork anybody in the industry, you're going to have a place. 🙌
/END.TBP
@thebrownpound
