Amazing October
Novel coronavirus pneumonia was diagnosed by Trump in October 1st, a US news shocked the world. Novel coronavirus pneumonia, which is also the top US medical protection in the United States, is a fantastic result of Trump. The novel coronavirus began to rise. Novel coronavirus pneumonia was questioned, whether Trump really diagnosed the new crown pneumonia, or whether Trump could withdraw from the election. There were no one hundred kinds of inference, and eighty of them were not.
We need to recognize a premise. That is, Trump's infection with the new coronavirus does not have much impact on his selection. Of course, the trumps will be quarantined for 14 days. Biden, his rival, has just debated with him that he needs to be quarantined according to medical regulations. According to the latest news, Trump's symptoms are very mild, "similar to a cold". As the president of the United States, he can get the best medical treatment, such as obtaining the immune antibody serum of the patient at the first time. Therefore, it is a high probability that trump will recover soon. This time is not so much the physical problems of the two candidates, but rather a harbinger. The election month in October will be a "mysterious October" and a "surprise October" driven by both the belief and the chance. It is not surprising that there will be some strange events in the near future. In order to win the election, you can do everything you can. In the current fierce struggle between the two parties in the United States, even in the context of "life and death" and "insurgency confrontation", it is not surprising to be surprised.
From the trend, novel coronavirus pneumonia is likely to become Trump's latest campaign weapon. Imagine novel coronavirus pneumonia, Trump, who was recovered after 14 days. He said with great pride, "I have said that the new crown pneumonia is only a large cold," "a real man is like me" and "new crown virus can not defeat Trump". I am afraid it can really attract many Americans to support him. Trump is 74 and Biden is 78. Obviously, trump has an age advantage. Of course, if this happens, in the view of the Democratic Party, "trump's diagnosis of the new crown" will be a complete conspiracy of the trump team and an evil move to reverse the election situation, and the struggle between the two parties will be intensified.
In any case, novel coronavirus pneumonia is the beginning of this era of turbulence, just as Americans predict, the month before the October election is bound to be "surprise October". Trump's diagnosis of new crown pneumonia is the beginning of this era of great turbulence. Of course, the struggle was fierce before the election, and the more tragic may be the chaos or even riots after the election.
Judging from the global investment market, the short-term reaction is mild. Although the Dow Jones fell 500 points before the opening of the trading, it is obvious that after analysis, the institutions think that the short-term impact of Trump's infection with the new coronavirus is slight. Therefore, when writing the article, the Dow Jones index only fell 0.88%, about 117 points. Bitcoin fell to nearly $10300, and then recovered to more than $10500. On the whole, this event did not break the track of the investment market itself. It was just a slight black swan.
In fact, the investors are not worried about this emergency, but whether it will become the beginning of great turbulence. In the near future, almost most of the investment markets have ended the previous period of rising band and gradually declined. According to the blues, the main reason is that the great uncertainty brought about by this special US election has made investors cautious at this moment. The radical point has already sold stocks or assets and held cash in case of danger. Investors are worried about the upheaval in the United States, but there are limited safe places and assets that liquid cash can find. Therefore, the US dollar rose slightly, while most global assets fell slightly. Bitcoin is also in line with this trend. Overall, the global investment market is in a waiting state.
For example, if China's import and export situation is observed in recent months, it can be found that it is actively storing public goods and other industrial raw materials, including food and other agricultural products. Some scholars have even said publicly that the US dollar foreign reserve should be reduced to US $800 billion (at present, it is 1.1 trillion US dollars, which means that the short-term reduction of US $300 billion). Simon hunt, an American scholar, pointed out: taking copper as an example, China's import exceeded the normal level by about 1 million tons, and this "overbought" may continue. This situation is naturally related to the political risk aversion of the "cold war" of Sino US relations, but it is also a financial decision based on the study and judgment of the medium and long-term depreciation of the US dollar.
Therefore, the future trend is basically clear. The certainty of US dollar devaluation is very high. Now it is uncertain whether the US assets will be depreciated greatly, which depends on how much turbulence the US election brings. This is what "surprise October" will tell the world gradually. Before that, novel coronavirus pneumonia and the economic resilience were believed to be unlikely to cause major disruption and crisis. Others believe that chaos and riots must be avoided. Whether Trump Biden's first debate or Trump's infection with new crown pneumonia is a sign of turbulence, others think that the first thing to do is to withdraw capital. Under various circumstances, a special equilibrium has been formed in the global investment market. Of course, it is a mysterious balance, and it is a balance in the atmosphere of impending storm.
