HODL is not the way

As markets push higher, I feel it's time to utter the forbidden words before it's too late. There will be a point in time when bitcoin reaches a new ATH, and when it does - history will repeat itself. If you are here right now make sure you stand on the right side of it.

In my experience, the HODL sentiment is pushed onto new retail investors, by other new retail investors. There is a reason HODL is a meme on reddit, and not a strategy at Blackrock. The reality of the situation is that as BTC reaches a new ATH, the smart money will start to slowly dump their bags on the poor souls who just jumped the bandwagon, but doesn't know the next station is the final stop.

Not adhering to HODL doesn't mean you don't believe in the long term value of BTC, quite the contrary. All it means, is that your are objective enough to realize crypto is characterized by an extremely cyclical nature in this emerging stage of its lifecycle. Therefore, selling at least some of your BTC is not a goodbye, it's simply a see-you-in-a-bit.

So whatever you do, don't ride your profits all the way up, just to ride them all the way back down again. Literally any profit-taking strategy is better than HODL when things are obviously getting way out of hand. And if you don't believe it's possible to spot a bubble, charts like this beg to differ. Heck you, could even use the "if-your-nana-asks" theory to know when to run for the hills.

I have a DCA-exit strategy using that chart (AlphaSquared Risk model) which worked well last time, and if you haven't already - a $37.000 BTC is your cue to start preparing.

This post will stir controversy now, and at the point of Bitcoin's new ATH, it'll be considered blasphemy. So make of it what you will, but I've been around since 2016, and this story repeats itself like a broken record.