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BTCUSD Short – Potential 30-35% Drop Towards Long Term 61.80% Fibonacci

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Avatar for rafaelken1989
Written by   43
3 weeks ago

DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor certified analyst and definitely not a pro trader. All contents discussed on this blogpost are solely my own personal views and for Trading education/entertainment purposes only. Crypto/Cryptocurrency Trading is extremely risky where losses can exceed deposits. Enter with discretion. Do your own research and due diligence. The basis of this trading analysis is purely technical in nature.

Happy Tuesday all.

Today I decided to create a 3-part trade plans for the top cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple XRP.

As a head start, let us discuss  first and foremost Bitcoin as the overall crypto leader coin.

It has been a 24-week period of consolidation after BTCUSD printed its last all time high at almost $65,000.

Then we had 2021 yearly low last June at $28,600 then made a bullish run towards September hitting a fresh 4-week high.

The weekly time frame clearly shows 2 monster resistances starting with $53,000 and $57,000. These 2 are the main hurdles to bring back the crypto leader to play around its previous ATH circa.

What I worried now is this, BTCUSD’s last two weekly candles have finally touched the Ichimoku cloud signaling for more bearish momentums to come! In fact Bitcoin is still bullish in general and the last touch on the cloud occurred 85 weeks ago! So from this I can see that there would be a definite volatility in the crypto markets. Take note that Bitcoin’s current dominance index is still a threat towards alts.

Let’s continue, the weekly 50 SMA is even strategically placed right in the heart of the cloud and I speculate that $36,000-$39,000 can support and going to create dead cat bounces and when these happen, they will eventually turn the current price right now at the time of writing this article into a resistance which thankfully acting as support for now at least. That is the long term 38.20% Fibonacci in conjunction to Bitcoin’s last major dip on March 2020 at the start of global pandemic lead to financial meltdowns across all markets.

So without further ado, my trade plan for BTCUSD is to short the $41,000 price mark which I still give room for the bulls to protect this crucial 38.20% Fib. Lower timeframes especially 4-hour chart can have nasty max SFP high signal or stop loss triggers.

I will set a strict stop loss on the Ichimoku Kijun Line $45,000 which I suspect a quick profit exit for those trying to make long positions but I am still bearish bias for Bitcoin’s price action.

My short take profit exit will be near the Bitcoin’s 2021 yearly low but I adjust to $29,000 which is also strategically placed near the long term 61.80% Fib.

This trading plan has exactly risk:reward score of 3.

Good luck to me.

I hope you have learned something from my first crypto TA. Next will be Ethereum and XRP.

Enjoy the rest of the day!

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Avatar for rafaelken1989
Written by   43
3 weeks ago
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