What is happening now with Bitcoin?
Btw, it's not too late to start using BCH!
I think there's been enough time for us to understand what's happening with the BTC and consequently with the crypto market. Naturally, after the BTC hits its all-time high above 60k it is natural that the market loses momentum with investors' profit-taking characterizing the so-called market correction, where the price drops to near support.
But "coincidentally" there were simultaneous events that worsened this fall to the point of putting the market with one foot in the Bear Market!
A change that I don't remember happening so quickly.
THE PROBLEMS
There were the Twitters of Elon Musk, and then the threats from China, which have now been confirmed, and to make matters worse, prices fell so much that they formed the dreaded Cross of Death (meeting the moving averages of the 50 days with that of the 200 days).
A perfect combination to have the fall we had, but luckily it didn't change the overall picture at all.
If not for these events, the BTC would be rising a lot towards 100k by the end of the year, taking the market with it, including the BCH, which could go to values close to 3k.
WHERE ARE WE GOING
We cannot forget that the entire situation so far is favorable to these impressive goals. Interest rates in the world remain low; the high monetary base in all countries; increasing vaccination, savings are already returning to normal; large institutions buying cryptocurrencies; countries acquiring cryptocurrencies; new investors keep coming into the market, and new services using cryptocurrencies keep coming, like; the DeFi protocols; the NFTs; and the well-known tokenization, which is constantly reinventing and is now at the service of football teams and other sports entities.
COMPLEX PROBLEMS!
It's hard to imagine that with such a positive backdrop, the market could still have been shaken by Elon's twitter and China's mining ban. The point is that we are not seeing the impact of this on the market now, as the market has already priced these events, but the market is bearish in face of its biggest villain, which is uncertainty.
The problem is that the market does not know what will happen to the coins that are held by the miners, no matter how much speculation, no one really knows.
See how complex it is; With such a positive scenario, miners were accumulating many, many more currencies, but now with low prices the cost of mining is more expensive to pay in BTC, but they have plenty of cash, the biggest problem is that with the ban in China the mining companies will have to move to other places, with much more expensive energy, after all, they weren't in China to admire the great wall because there the energy is subsidized and the machines are more accessible. When moving to other places, they will have costs that are very difficult to be calculated, after all, whoever has never done a home renovation where the values were higher than expected, should cast the first stone. So, it is difficult to know how many Bitcoins will be dumped in the market to cover these costs and, given this uncertainty, the market tends to react as we are seeing.
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?
In my opinion, the eviction will not be that big, as there are many contacts and insurance that the miners do, but I'm not so sure about that, and I'm just a single individual in the market, what do the others think? Nobody knows, some have more privileged information than others, this is how the market works, the prices of the more optimistic and the much less optimistic are released, it's all speculation, and it works as an arm wrestling, imagine this dispute like the support and resistance lines, so who will win? If the price rises above 36 and after 40, the agent returns to the Bull Market and we return towards 100k, but if it falls below 30 and after 28 then we will definitely enter the Bear Market, in which we can have a loss of up to 50% again! For now, nothing has been defined yet, and we can only wait.
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