How long will this Bear Market last?

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Avatar for nomadghada
2 years ago

In CoinBureau's latest video Guy talks the current bear market will last. Here are some of my thoughts on the topic.

Like Guy said 'This is not financial advise' and by that I mean not his video nor my article.

This article is not a summary of the video but my thought on the same and I suggest you watch the video before reading this article.

Also, it is just speculation as no one can predict the future.

Are we in a Bear Market?

One of the question Guy tackles is 'are we in a Bear Market?' and while there is no clear consensus about it, however with the falling market and the destruction of LUNA can be considered to be an indicator of the bear market.

Correlation with Stock market

The stock market has a direct correlation with the Crypto market, meaning when Stock market goes down the Crypto market also goes down.

This is well explained by Guy as a relationship coming from thee large institutional investors involvement in the Crypto space.

And the stock market has been falling, with the inflation rising and the interest rate in the US also rising to combat it has resulted in the fall in the Crypto market.

De-coupling with the Stock market

If the Crypto market is decoupled from the stock market then this type of falls can be avoided. Here Guy makes a valid that this is an very unlikely scenario as the market are interlinked for various reason.

Furthermore, in my view even if the markets can be decoupled I think it shouldn't be has this type of isolation could hamper with the growth of Crypto.

However, in my view while Guy present this situation as an yes or no situation I have a different take on it. I feel that the correlation of the market should be understood in degrees of how much they are correlated instead of 0 or 1.

I feel that as the Crypto market will mature its correlation with the Stock market will come down a few degrees. Similar to how any other market like commodity or real estate is correlated with the Stock market.

Bitcoin Halving

Halving events of 4 year intervals are taken has a market indicator for movement of bulls and bears, however while this is all has been true in the past there is a possibility that market could be moving away from that trend.

Again this is all speculation with no 100% prediction.

So how long will it be?

After watching this video it is reasonable to assume that while there might be a few up trends in the coming time, it might take 1 - 2 years for actual bulls to launch to the moon.

Now again there is no 100% prediction but it could be a general estimates presented by Guy.

The 3x movement

So in this video Guy is speaking from the BTC prospected and with some data points assumes that next up trend in Crypto could lead BTC to 3x gains.

Now this is what he assumes from the BTC point of view but taking into the account the BitcoinCash and its movement that could easily correlate to a 10x - 30x gain assuming the price will reach previous years high price or the All-Time-High

HODL Mode activated

It is best to assume that there could be a stretch of a year or 2 for the markets to recover and therefore it is best to HODL on to your coins for the time being.

Using your coins

In terms of BitcoinCash one of the best things that make is unique is its use case as the digital peer-to-peer medium of exchange and the popularity and adoption it is gaining across the world.

Therefore, if you are Hodling your coins and need some cash then instead of selling them for fiat it is better to use it directly peer-to-peer (assuming there are merchants near you).

There are also ways to spend it directly online on my platforms like Travala and many of the freelancer are accepting Crypto as payment (including me)

So if you are looking to hire a freelancer offer to pay in BitcoinCash and if you are a freelancer then ask for payment in BitcoinCash.

It is the best way to participate in the BitcoinCash economy and spread its adoption which will ultimately help it when the Bull market actually comes around.

Recently I have came across a few designing opportunities on Twitter and Reddit where the person was offering to paying in BitcoinCash, this is the kind of economy we need around BitcoinCash and it helps both the parties.

The person who is hiring the freelancer can easily buy BitcoinCash with fiat currency and pay the freelancer for less cost.

And the freelancer can get BitcoinCash for spending at various merchants and online platforms.

By-the-way if you are looking for graphic design work message me in the comments below and maybe I can offer you a good price in BCH terms.

Happy HODLing everyone.

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Avatar for nomadghada
2 years ago

Comments

I will hold as long as no problem arises financially. I lose almost half of my portfolio but I do hope the market will recover soon.

$ 0.03
2 years ago

It might take some time but let's hope for the best.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

I think minimum it will last for 6 months.

$ 0.01
2 years ago

Might be longer, but let's see

$ 0.00
2 years ago