It has been quite the year for bitcoin. It has been reaching new heights ever since December 2020! Its price currently sits comfortably at a range of $50k(41k Euro)-$55k(45k Euro). People have watched its price attentively as it uptrends, pauses, and continues to uptrend. However, an important figure that is the key behind bitcoin's success is its market cap. Bitcoin's market cap doesn't get as much attention as its price, but it is even more important. Needless to say, the market cap follows the price. As bitcoin's price skyrockets, so does its market cap. In January, Bitcoin's market cap was sitting at $500-$700 billion. However, as Bitcoin recently broke $50,000, it didn't take long for the market cap to set records of its own. At 3:44-3:59pm (UTC) February 19, 2021 Bitcoin's market cap broke $1 Trillion (824.475 Billion Euros) for the first time in its history.
As many already know, this rapid Bitcoin growth is the cause of its halving in May 2020. The halvings have been known to boost the coin's price and market cap tremendously. It did this in late 2017 and early 2018 due to its halving in July 2016. In 2016 at the time of its halving, bitcoin was sitting at $650(535 Euro)-$680(560 euro) dollars. It took 9 months (until April 2017) for Bitcoin to start rapidly rising and 9 more months (until January 2018) for it to peak at $17k (14k Euro). Halving and peak were 18 months apart. In addition, there was a ~250% spike from the price at halving to the price at peak. By February 2018, Bitcoin was on a major downtrend as those who had made profits from the spike were eager to sell.
It is almost the same as what is happening now. In May 2020 at the time of its halving, bitcoin was sitting at around $8k(6.5k Euros). It took 5 months (until October 2020) for Bitcoin to start rapidly rising and here we are 4 months after, at what is somewhere near Bitcoin's peak. From May 2020 until now, Bitcoin has spiked ~520%. In the past, we can see that the time between the halving and rising is almost the same as the time between the rising and peaking. It only took a month from peaking to dropping. So we can infer that Bitcoin will rise and pause for about 1-2 more months. Then we can expect a massive drop as buyers reap their profits.
Things to note: This time around, it took almost half the time it did 4 years ago to rise and peak. The peak is also more than 3 times what it was last time. This is evidence of Bitcoin’s growth. Last time, Bitcoin dropped about 60%(to $7.2k) from its original from its peak after a month (in February 2018). After 12 months (in December 2018, it had dropped a full 80% (to $3.5k) and found a stable sideways trend for 5 months (until April 2019). After that, it spiked 170% (to $11,000) over 2 months which was followed by a series of extended up and down trends until October 2020, the beginning of this halving spike. I find it unlikely that we will experience such a drastic drop again, given that Bitcoin has improved its numbers. However, 30%-40% drop is on the books.
Whether you HODL or sell your coins is up to you. Fear not, Bitcoin may drop, but it has proven to be able to get right back up and reach records never seen before. This new record is good news for bitcoin and the altcoins that seem to mirror its movement because it is only a sneak-peek of things to come. Whether crypto will takeover the fiat currencies and bitcoin (or another altcoin) will take over all monetary transactions, we don't know. But we will soon see with our own eyes, what the future holds for us.
Until then, stay safe, stay smart, and I'll see you there.
