Hi fox hope you are well. Chainlink is one of the coins that I love to trade because this coin always gives very good trading opportunities and forms different harmonic and chart patterns and have very good volatility which makes it favorite among the traders community and especially for me.
Bullish Move Upto 211%:
On weekly chart after forming a double bottom the Link has produced more than 211% and this rally was started since December 2019 up to the current month even though the coin has formed a double bottom and everyone knows that after the double bottom pattern there are strong chances that the link can make higher than the previous high but there are some signals appeared showing that this asset can have a pull back.
A Strong Resistance Is Found:
As we can see that Link has found a strong resistance at $4.58. In June 2019 the Chainlink reached at this level but could not breakout this resistance and moved down then after formation of double bottom currently it has again reached at this level and on weekly chart we can see that the priceline has hit three times at this level but even after three attempts the price action of Link is not able to break out this resistance level. Now we have four touches on weekly chart at this level in total from June 2019 up till now.
A Parallel Channel:
On long term weekly chart the Chainlink has formed a parallel channel with the support at $1.54 and the resistance at $4.58. If we place the volume profile on the complete priceline moving between this channel then we can observe that the trader’s interest is very low above $3.22 and also very low at the support of the channel. And the POC of volume profile is at $2.88 which is a positive sign because if the price action drops down from here then we have a support level $2.88 this is the resistance which price action faced to cross up from Oct 2019 to Jan 2020 and also the POC of this volume profile at the same level. And if we place the Fibonacci retracement tool on the complete price action of this channel then it can be easily seen that the POC of the volume profile is at the golden ratio of 0.618 Fibonacci level, this retracement level is favorite for traders because they expect a bullish reversal from this level. And POC of volume profile works like centre of gravity and always calls the price action towards itself like if we see the drop of Chainlink from June 2019 up to September 2019 then we can observe that the priceline moved up towards POC of volume profile and moved down again and then moved up and broke out the POC level of volume profile. This happened because the POC of volume profile pulls the price line towards itself and at the same time it also works as a resistance or support therefore if there will be any drop happened this time then we can expect that the POC of this volume profile will work as a strong support. This is the reason why I am not expecting that in case of any drop the priceaction will hit the support of the parallel channel at $1.54.
Big Bearish BAT Pattern Has Been Formed:
On the same long term weekly chart it can be easily examined that Chainlink has formed a complete bearish BAT pattern. The initial leg was started on 24th of June when first time the price action found the resistance at $4.58. Then price action of chainlink started moving down and completed the initial X to A leg on 23rd September 2019 then from this level the price action retraced up to 0.50 Fibonacci level and after completing A to B leg it is projected between 0.382 to 0.886 Fibonacci projection of A to B leg. And now we can see that the final leg which is C to D leg is retraced between 0.786 up to 0. 886 Fibonacci level even though priceline has hit the spikes beyond the resistance level of 4.58 dollars but so far no candlestick has been closed above the potential pullback zone of this bearish BAT` pattern.
A Small Bearish BAT Pattern On 12 Hour Chart:
Now I am taking you to the 12 hour short term time period chart and here the price action of Chainlink has formed another bearish BAT pattern within the BAT pattern of weekly chart. And after completing this pattern the priceline is entered in the potential reversal zone and from this point we can expect first pullback. But the pull back which will be started on this chart will take little bit long time to be reflected on the long term weekly chart.
How We Can Confirm The Pull Back On Long Term Chart:
Now the question is that how we can confirm that the bearish move is getting started on long term weekly chart. For that there are several indicators we can use to check the bearish pullback. And you can use your own set of indicators to determine this. At this point the indicators I am using to confirm the drop are three. First the relative strength index (RSI). 2ND indicator is Stochastic and 3rd indicator is moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Even though all indicators are strong bullish so far but once the indicators will be started turning bearish and we will find the price action in the potential reversal zone of this bearish BAT pattern then the drop can be confirmed. At this time the RSI is already in bought zone the stochastic is in bull cross and MACD is strong bullish, now here we can see two things if the stochastic will give us bear cross and moving average convergence divergence will be turned bearish then these two signals can be used as initial indicators to confirm the bearish move.
Should I Buy If The Drop Is Expected?
If you are already enjoying the bullish ride of Chainlink then you can follow the above guidelines to take exit in case of drop. But if you are a new trader who wants to buy the chainlink then I would suggest you a bit aggressive strategy to buy. As we have seen above that the priceline has found a strong resistance at $4.58 since June 2019 therefore first we need to observe and wait that the price action should break out this resistance level and after breaking out from this resistance level we can buy enjoy the next bullish rally.
Further I will post more updates on Chainlink with the developments.