How much could be the risk of investing in Bitcoin in 2020?

Pretty small, there is really only a real risk to buy Bitcoin in the first year after it has gone up by 10,000%.

Let’s look at the previous behaviour of Bitcoin.

1. 2014: 80% loss from $1,000 to $200 in the year after the 10,000% gain .

2. 2015: 100% gain from $200 to $400 in the 2nd year after the 10,000% gain

3. 2016: 100% gain from $400 to $800 in the 3rd year after the 10,000% gain

4. 2017: 2,500% gain from $800 to $20,000 in the 4th year after the 10,000% gain

5. 2018: 80% loss from $20,000 to $3,000 in the year after the 10,000% gain.

6. 2019: 100% gain from $3,000 to $6,000 in the 2nd year after the 10,000% gain.

7. 2020: 100% gain from $6,000 to $12,000 in the 3rd year after the 10,000% gain.

8. 2020: 2,500% gain from $12,000 to $300,000 in the 4th year after the 10,000% gain.

It’s always a very, very similar cycle.

This shows that the risk is always the highest directly after the 10,000% gain (duh), but every year after that Bitcoin shows constant gains.

This gives us the following risks/upsides after the 10,000% gain

1. 1st year 80% loss from $20,000 to $3,000

2. 2nd year 100% gain from $3,000 to $6,000

3. 3rd year 100% gain from $6,000 to $12,000

4. 4th year 2,500% gain from $12,000 to $300,000.

We are now 2.2 years after the 10,000% gain and 0.2 years into the 3rd year.

However, since the market is more mature a 2,500% gain is less likely, but rather a 1,500% gain.