All this is based on an analysis I've made of the previous Halvings here: “What Can You Expect for Bitcoin Price the Days Following Its Third Halving?”
The first thing that gives me confidence is to see the reaction of the price of Bitcoin after the two previous Halving:
Halving in 2012: Bitcoin price finally reached $1,147 on December 4, 2013, a little more than a year after its first Halving, which represents a pharaonic increase of +9,150%:
Halving in 2016: On December 17, 2017, Bitcoin reaches a historical price of $19,086. This gives an increase of +2.836% compared to the Bitcoin price on the second Halving day. 18 months to reach the top of the Bull Market.
The bulk of the bull market would take place during the year 2021 with a possible high reached at the end of the year.
Looking back at previous Halving events, we notice that during the first Halving, the very strong bull market finally allowed a 9,150% increase in the price of Bitcoin. The second Halving allowed the price of Bitcoin to rise by 2,836%. There is no indication that there is a correlation between these two figures.
However, it is likely that the relative increase in Bitcoin price will be smaller this time around.
Between the first two Halvings, the relative increase dropped by 69%. Such a decrease between the second and third halving would give hope for an 879% increase in Bitcoin price by the end of the very strong bull market that will follow the May 12, 2020 event.
With a Bitcoin price around $9,000 on this Halving day, we could very well hope to see Bitcoin reach $90K at the peak of this bull market.
As you can see, Bitcoiners hoping for a Bitcoin price around $100K by the end of the very strong bull market that will take place after this third Halving are far from being utopians. The possibilities are real.
Furthermore, it can be noted that the bull market high was reached 12 months after the first Halving. The second Halving took 18 months. For this third Halving, it is therefore not unimaginable to think that it could be part of a 24-month period.
This could mean that the peak of the bull market would be reached later than by the end of 2021, may be in May 2022.
This future bull market for Bitcoin will be intensified by the responses of governments and central banks to the economic crisis we are going through[2].
All the money that was printing in trillions of dollars now is reinforcing the essential side of Bitcoin.
More and more people will adopt it in the coming months and years as a hedge against high monetary inflation.
All of this gives me extreme confidence that Bitcoin should see its price exceed $25K in 2021.
Thanks for sharing this article man.