Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Here's why
Lately I have noticed that almost everybody sharing and discussing cryptocurrency-oriented content on the internet is talking about the ongoing ''bull run'', and how we are currently in a bull market and so on. Now, please don't take me wrong, I do enjoy witnessing rallies and seeing green signs all over my screen, and I am probably more bullish on crypto than everyone else, which is the very reason I decided to share some thoughts in regard to this in today's post.
In the image above you can see the total crypto market capitalization during the bull cycle of 2017, which started in August 2017 with a total market capitalization of $90 billion and hit the highest point in January 2018 with a total market capitalization of $833 billion, marking a total increase of more than 800% over a period of approximately 6 months. Those were good times and no one can argue with that. That was indeed a bull run.
Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Not the same
In the image above you can see the total market capitalization during the ongoing rally, which in my humble opinion has been falsely interpreted as a bull run. The greenery returned after a very long time during November 2020 when the total market capitalization was somewhere around the $400 billion mark, leading the market to hit an all time high of $1.09 trillion on January 8, 2021. That's roughly an increase of 172%. That's not what bull runs are meant to be.
In my humble point of view, and taking into consideration a series of technical and social factors, the next bull run will make the chart look like a flat line up until that point. Such factors are the declining total supply after every halving event, the ever-growing demand due to the increasing number of individuals and institutions getting interested and looking to invest in the cryptocurrency industry, and the global tendency to eliminate the use of physical money exhibited by the majoriry of western governments.
I've expressed my concerns in regard to the complete elimination of the use of physical money many times, but I'm afraid it is inevitable. Thus, it makes sense to me that the people will seek refuge in the cryptocurrency ecosystem the moment the governments decide to take away their cash and hand the bankers total control over their lives. Bearish for liberty, but bullish for crypto, and this specific part of the global political agenda can take the cryptocurrency ecosystem to the next level in terms of market capitalization on its own.
Now let's have a closer look at how some of our favourite cryptocurrencies performed back in 2017 and how they are reacting to the ongoing rally:
Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Great
In the chart above you can see BTC taking off from the $2.8k mark on August 2017 and hitting the $19k mark in December 2017, sending shockwaves across the entire global market and showing a dramatic increase of approximately 578% over a period of less than six months. Yes, that was a bull run, and particularly one that made many people rich and happy, and the entire cryptocurrency industry a bit more famous.
Now let's see what the charts have to say about the reaction of BTC to the ongoing rally:
Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Still good, but...
As you can see in the chart above, BTC took off from somewhere around the $15k mark in November 2020 and reached a new All Time High approximately a month later somewhere around the $41k mark. And yes, I agree, that's great and made everyone involved in the cryptocurrency industry happy, but we have to face the truth: that's an increase of barely 173%, and even though it is much appreciated, it is far from what you can expect during a bull cycle.
In my humble opinion, BTC is just warming up for the next bull cycle that hasn't arrived yet. Now let's have a look at our favourite Bitcoin Cash, shall we?
Let's see what the charts have to say about the reaction of Bitcoin Cash to the 2017 bull market:
Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Great
As you can see in the chart above, our favourite Bitcoin Cash took off from the $600 mark in August 2017 and hit the $4.15k mark in December 20, 2017. If you do the math you will realize that we are talking about an increase of approximately 591%. That's what I call bull run numbers. That's the sort of growth I am expecting BCH to display during the next bull cycle.
Now let's see what the charts have to say about the reaction of Bitcoin Cash to the ongoing rally:
Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Not what you'd expect
As you can see in the image above, in early November 2020 Bitcoin Cash was sitting around the $250 mark, until almost a month later it hit the $600 mark, showing a total increase of 140% in a period of five weeks or less. Again, don't take me wrong, these are gains I'd happily take any day, but let's make it absolutely clear that this is no sign of a bull market. Just a warm up as far as I'm concerned.
In my humble opinion, BCH is also just warming up for the next bull cycle that hasn't arrived yet. Now let's have a look at what the ETH charts have to say, shall we?
Let's take a look at the ETH charts regarding the 2017 bull market:
Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Amazing
Looking at the chart above, you can get a taste of the good ol' times. As you can see, ETH took off from somewhere around the $210 mark in early August 2017 and landed somewhere around the $1391 mark in early January 2018, showing a total increase of approximately 562%, which was exactly what we were expecting from a bull cycle back in the day. That's the sort of growth I'd like to see before I say anything about a bull market.
Now let's see what the charts have to say about the reaction of Ethereum to the ongoing rally:
Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Not that bad
In the chart above you can see that Ethereum was sitting somewhere around the $430 mark in early November 2020 and peaked somewhere around the $1420 mark in January 18. Showing total growth of approximately 230%, ETH is probably the only altcoin performing as if we're in the middle of a mini ''bull run'', because again, those are rookie numbers and we shouldn't be talking about a bull run at the moment anyway. But then again, this is just my personal take on the issue.
Let's see what the charts have to say about the reaction of Litecoin to the 2017 bull market:
Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Great
By having a closer look at the chart above you can see that LTC took off from somewhere around the $55 mark in early August 2017 and landed somewhere around the $375 mark in late December 2017, exhibiting a total increase of approximately 581% and making many LTC holders happy. That's the sort of gains you have to have if we are to talk about bull cycles. The ongoing rally is just a warm up, but as I have said before, this is just me.
Now let's see what the charts have to say about the reaction of Litecoin to the ongoing rally:
Image Source: coinmarketcap.com
Not great, not terrible
As you can see in the chart above, Litecoin was sitting somewhere around the $70 mark in early November 2020 and hit the $171 mark on January 9, showing total growth of less than 145%. Now some of you may think that such gains are extremely good, especially for such a short time interval, and I would certainly agree with that. What I do no agree with is the bull cycle label we have given to this ongoing mini rally. It's good and we all love it, but it's not a bull run.
In for the long haul
If you have been reading my blogs then you already know that I am a firm believer in the cryptoverse. I think this revolutionary technology is here to stay, and peer to peer transaction systems are our only powerful weapon to defend liberty with as we are heading towards a fully digitized future. I am not a doubter, and I truly feel sorry for the ignorant folks who keep calling the cryptosphere a bubble, when it is currently breaking one record after another 12 years after its inception.
Actually this is a FOMO post as you can understand; I'm only implying that the recent price surges are just a warm up, and if anyone of you is thinking that it's too late to get involved and invest, then I would like you to reconsider. Of cource, this is by no means financial advice, and you should never take my word for your investment decisions, but it surely is what I say to people in my family environment that I care about. Make what you wish of my publications, but always look things up yourself before deciding how to manage your hard-earned funds.
The future looks bright
But don't say I didn't warn you. The cryptocurrency industry is only getting started, and it's not that hard to figure it out especially considering how the vast majority of internet users do not know a thing about the blockchain technology and have barely ever heard of the word Bitcoin. Yes, it's still too early, and we are all the crazy ones. The ones who could see ahead and arrived here first. The ones who are in to make millions off this internet money thingy we so much love.
Thank you for taking the time to read this far. I hope you learned something new today. Fill your bags and hold your crypto. Your future self will be grateful for your commitment and belief.
I appreciate your attention,
@lordneroo
