On May 31, 2021, just after the Splinterlands season ended, I bought 110 packs of Untamed cards from the Shop on the Splinterlands website and used 200000 DEC tokens for the purchase.
In this post I will explain the reason for my purchase, which is closely related to the estimated value of a pack of Untamed cards.
In fact, a pack of Untamed cards has an estimated value which is not a certain value but a value that becomes more and more accurate as the number of packs purchased increases (starting from 500 packs of cards and going up in number).
To find out the estimated value of a pack of Untamed cards you can consult: :
- the https://peakmonsters.com/packs site (packs section)
- the website https://www.splintercards.com/tool-packvalue.html (tools section)
The highest estimated value is obtained by using 5 Alchemical potions and 5 Legendary potions per pack of Untamed cards.
On 31 May, the estimated value of a pack of Untamed cards was $2.32 (using market prices and using both potions).
I compared the estimated value with the price of the Untamed card packs considering the different purchase options:
- purchase via the Splinterlands website (using DEC credits and tokens)
- Purchase via HiveEngine/LeoDex/TribalDex
Based on HIVE and DEC token values as of May 31, 2021, the lowest cost of a pack of Untamed cards was found to be the cost of purchasing 500 packs of cards in bulk from the Splinterlands Shop: $1.58 per pack
To get this price you needed to have 1 million DEC tokens to invest and I only had 200000 DEC tokens.
So I checked the cost of buying 100 packs of Untamed cards in bulk from the Splinterlands website and found the second best price: $1.65 per pack.
I calculated the difference between Estimated Value and Purchase Cost and got a very positive result: +0.66755$.
As you can see from the following image, each pack of Untamed cards has an estimated value that is higher than the purchase cost (in case you don't have to buy potions).
In case you don't have potions available the difference is still positive but not enough to justify a purchase according to my strategy of buying Untamed or Dice packs.
In fact the card pack buying strategy I decided to follow is the following:
I buy a pack of cards only if the difference between the estimated value and the purchase cost is more than 0.4$.
This explains the reason for my purchase: 100 packs of Untamed cards (+10 bonus).
After the purchase I opened 47 packs of Untamed cards.
Based on the estimated value of $2.32 per pack of cards there are three possible scenarios:
- Lucky scenario: The total value of the cards inside the packs is higher than the $109.4 value corresponding to the following multiplication: ($2.32 * 47 packs).
- Estimated scenario (highly unlikely): the total value of the cards coincides with the total estimated value which is $109.4.
- Unfortunate scenario: the total value of the cards inside the packs is less than the value of $109.4.
Based on the purchase cost, I make a profit if the cards in the card packs have a total value of more than $77.66515 ($1.65245 * 47).
Inside the card packs I found 235 cards.
The highest value card I found was the Scarred Llama Mage summoner card: value of about $28.
The 47 packs of cards I opened cost me $77.66515 and the total value of the cards I found inside the packs was $80.5.
I wasn't very lucky and in fact I fell into the unlucky scenario but I still had a profit even if it was small: +2.83$.
47 packs of cards are few to hope to get a real value of the cards found close to the estimated value and therefore luck always plays a key role.
I have not been lucky in opening packs, but I think my buying strategy is correct in the medium to long term and I will continue to follow it.
I only opened 47 packs of cards because I used up all the potions I got from the rewards of the daily quests and the seasonal quests.
Now I have 63 Untamed packs to open but I'm not in a hurry and I won't be buying potions from the Shop section of the Splinterlands website.
I will open a new pack of cards every time I collect 5 alchemical potions and 5 legendary potions from completing the Splinterlands daily quests.
In July there will be the airdrop of the new SPS tokens that Splinterlands will award to its players on a daily basis for over a year based on the points shown in the table in the image below.
In order to get more points for future airdrops I will sell all the cards I don't use in battle because the conversion value of most Splinterlands cards into DEC (Collection Power) is less than the amount of DEC you can get from selling the cards.
Selling cards that are useful in battle is counterproductive because the SPS tokens will be awarded not only in the airdrop, which will last about a year, but also as prizes in tournaments and battles.
I hope you liked this post and I thank you for taking the time to read it :)
Not a Splinterlands player?
If you are not a Splinterlands player, you are missing out on a unique opportunity to have fun while earning cards and DEC.
If you decide to register, you can do so from this link:
https://splinterlands.com?ref=libertycrypto27
Of course if you'd like to use my refferal link... :)
If you use a refferal link when registering for Splinterlands you have the following advantage:
Splinterlands is a great game but it has also proven to be a good investment (at least so far) and if you regularly participate in the weekly contests organized by the @splinterlands account you will recoup the cost of registration in a few weeks.
Any game that allows you to buy cards and tokens is never just a game, it is also an investment.
I am not a financial advisor and my advice is not financial advice, it is just my personal opinion based on my experience.
If you decide to invest in the Splinterlands game you do so at your own choice and risk.
Unless otherwise indicated, the images in this post are screenshots taken from the sites:
Images containing calculations and formulas are my property.
The font used in my images or images edited by me is Open Source
