The "Bottleneck Effect" and My New End-of-season Strategy

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Avatar for libertycrypto27
2 years ago

Cover Image: Logo and Card images owned by Splinterlands - Edit by @libertycrypto27- Font used is Open Source

In the Splinterlands game there are daily missions and seasons that last 15 days.

At the end of each season each player receives a number of chests as a reward.

Each chest can contain a reward between:

- a certain amount of DEC tokens (the game's native tokens)

- a card (NFT)

- a potion (useful when opening a pack of cards)

Whoever finishes in the Champion I league receives 150 chests, whoever finishes in the Champion II league receives 120 chests... and it goes on from league to league until you reach the Bronze league, which entitles you to 7 chests.

In less than three days another season of Splinterlands will end and today I wanted to share my new end of season strategy.

I wrote new strategy because I have decided to change the strategy I have followed in previous seasons.

The reason for this change is the analysis of the results I have achieved in the past seasons and in particular the analysis of the results of the last two seasons of Splinterlands.

I have long followed the following strategy for the end of the Splinterlands season:

- I rent cards that are useful in battle from the market at https://peakmonsters.com/

- I rent the cards on the last day before the end of the Splinterlands season.

- I choose rental contracts with a Termination Escrow equal to 0 so that I can terminate contracts lasting more than one day without having to pay penalties.

- I set a rental budget that is directly proportional to the market value of the Splinterlands cards: if the cards have increased in value, I increase the rental budget and vice versa, in the opposite situation, I decrease it.

This strategy has given me so far non-linear but fluctuating results.

In fact, in the season relative to the period 1-15 April:

- I rented 30 cards from the Peakmonsters market.

- I spent $0.78 as total rental cost

- finished the season in League Champion II.

- received 120 chests as a reward

in the season relative to the period 16-30 April:

- I rented 41 cards from the Peakmonsters market

- I spent $1.38 as total rental cost

- finished the season in Diamond League I.

- received 60 chests as a reward

In the two following lists you can see the cards I rented on the last day of the last two finished seasons.

Season 1-15 April

- Parasitic Growth, Untamed, Level 10

- Wood Nymph, Reward, Level 8

- Flesh Golem, Beta, Level 9

- Kobold Miner, Beta, Level 9

- Grumpy Dwarf, Beta, Level 8

- Cerberus, Alpha, Level 7

- Electric Eels, Promo, Level 8

- Javelin Thrower, Reward, Level 7

- Manticore, Reward, Level 5

- Fire Demon, Beta, Level 6

- Daria Dragonscale, Reward, Level 6

- Mother Khala, Untamed, Level 8

- Zintar Mortalis, Beta, Level 8

- Lyanna Natura, Beta, Level 7

- Alric Stormbringer, Beta, Level 7

- Delwyn Dragonscale, Promo, Level 10

- Angel of Light, Alpha, Level 4

- Lord Arianthus, Reward, Level 3

- Red Dragon, Promo, Level 4

- Sacred Unicorn, Reward, Level 3

- Elemental Phoenix, Beta, Level 3

- Cornealus, Untamed, Level 3

- Magnor, Untamed, Level 4

- The Vigilator, Untamed, Level 4

- The Kraken, Reward, Level 4

- Camila Sungazer, Untamed, Level 4

- Robo-Dragon Knight, Reward, Level 1

- Diamond Dragon, Untamed, Level 4

- High Priest Darius, Untamed, Level 1

- Gloridax Magus, Untamed, Level 3

Season 16-30 April

- Valnamor, Beta, Level 3

- Camila Sungazer, Untamed, Level 4

- Mimosa Nightshade, Untamed, Level 4

- Delwyn Dragonscale, Promo, Level 10

- Wizard of Eastwood, Untamed, Level 8

- Daria Dragonscale, Reward, Level 5

- Malric Inferno, Beta, Level 8

- The Peakrider, Beta, Level 4

- Zintar Mortalis, Beta, Level 8

- Gloridax Magus, Untamed, Level 3

- High Priest Darius, Untamed, Level 4

- Diamond Dragon, Untamed, Level 4

- Sacred Unicorn, Reward, Level 4

- Lightning Dragon, Beta, Level 4

- Cornealus, Untamed, Level 3

- Elemental Phoenix, Beta, Level 2

- Corrupted Pegasus, Promo, Level 4

- Lord Arianthus, Reward, Level 3

- Hydra, Beta, Level 1

- Gold Dragon, Alpha, Level 4

- Angel of Light, Alpha, Level 4

- Red Dragon, Promo, Level 4

- Elemental Phoenix, Alpha, Level 4

- Spirit of the Forest, Alpha, Level 3

- Ice Pixie, Untamed, Level 4

- Spineback Wolf, Alpha, Level 10

- Wood Nymph, Reward, Level 10

- Flesh Golem, Beta, Level 10

- Kobold Miner, Beta, Level 9

- Grumpy Dwarf, Beta, Gold, Level 6

- Cerberus, Alpha, Level 7

- Javelin Thrower, Reward, Level 7

- Manticore, Reward, Level 5

- Fire Demon, Beta, Level 6

- Fineas Rage, Reward, Level 8

- Wave Runner, Reward, Level 10

- Sea Monster, Reward, Level 9

- Electric Eels, Promo, Level 8

- Electric Eels, Promo, Level 8

- Water Elemental, Beta, Level 8

- Spineback Turtle, Beta, Level 10

The season in which I rented the most cards and spent almost twice as much on rental I achieved the worst result.

In the two seasons the basic strategy was the same except for one thing: the playing time.

In the season in which I reached the Champion II league I started my run to the Champion league as soon as I started on the last available day and reached the Champion II league 4-5 hours before the end of the season.

In the season in which I reached the Diamond I league I started playing a few hours before the end of the season.

The Bottle Neck Effect

The failure of my last season was most probably caused by the "Bottle Neck" effect.

In order to move up from league to league, a higher and higher rating score is required.

When a player wins a battle against another player, his rating score will increase, depending on the difference in the ratings of the two opponents.

The larger the rating of the defeated opponent is compared to the winning player in a battle, the higher the rating score of the player who wins the battle.

Vice versa a battle lost against a player who has a much lower rating causes the losing player to lose many points.

Each league has a seasonal ranking that rewards the best players with a certain number of Untamed card packs based on their rating score.

On the last day of the season, those who have a high rating and are among the rewarded positions stop playing in order not to compromise their position in the ranking.

In fact in the last hours before the end of the last season when I was approaching a rating score close to 3700 points (threshold for access to the Champion III league) I met many players with a rating score lower than mine and few players with a rating score higher than mine.

A lost battle would cost me -30/-40 rating points less while a win would earn me +10 or +20 rating points.

A defeat would cancel out the rating points gained from two to three victories.

Here's the bottleneck effect: near the end of the Splinterlands season moving up from the Diamond I league to the Champion III league becomes a very difficult mission to complete because it creates a kind of cap or bottleneck that is difficult to overcome.

My new end-of-season strategy

For the above reasons I will change my strategy in this season finale:

- I will no longer rent useful battle cards (especially legendary cards) on the last day of the season but already on the penultimate day of the season.

- I will start battles as soon as the penultimate day of the season begins

- I will raise the maximum budget for card rentals from $1.5 in the previous season to $2. Since I will keep the rented cards for one more day I will spend a maximum of $1 per day on card rental.

Can I at least reach the Champion III league?

My starting point is the Gold I league.

At the time of writing this post, I have a rating score of 2665 points and a power score of 206280 points.

Going from the Gold I league to the Champion III league in less than two days will not be an easy goal to achieve but I am very confident because having two days at my disposal will give me more calm and tranquility and as the famous saying goes: "calm is the virtue of the strong". :)

Splinterlands is my favourite blockchain-based game and the strategy I will adopt in this season finale will be a further test in the search for my optimal end-of-season strategy.

If you like, follow me to find out if my end-of-season strategy choice will have the desired effect or if it will turn out to be completely wrong!

What is your strategy for the end of the season of Splinterlands?

Tell me in a comment below this post and I will read your comment with great pleasure.

I hope you liked this post and I thank you for taking the time to read it :)

Not a Splinterlands player?

If you are not a Splinterlands player, you are missing out on a unique opportunity to have fun while earning cards and DEC.

If you decide to register, you can do so from this link:

https://splinterlands.com?ref=libertycrypto27

Of course if you'd like to use my refferal link... :)

If you use a refferal link when registering for Splinterlands you have the following advantage:

Splinterlands is a great game but it has also proven to be a good investment (at least so far) and if you regularly participate in the weekly contests organized by the @splinterlands account ( on Hive blockchain) you will recoup the cost of registration in a few weeks.

Any game that allows you to buy cards and tokens is never just a game, it is also an investment.

I am not a financial advisor and my advice is not financial advice, it is just my personal opinion based on my experience.

If you decide to invest in the Splinterlands game you do so at your own choice and risk.

Unless otherwise indicated, the images in this post are screenshots taken from the sites:

https://splinterlands.com/

The font used in my images or images edited by me is Open Source

Follow me also on:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/libertycrypto27

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2 years ago

Comments

Nice to hear about your strategies! I can see what you mean with the bottleneck effect. Going for a ramp up in the last few days might be best as you say. Thanks for sharing.

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