Stick a Fork

June is a pretty exciting month on Hive - because Hardfork 26 is coming! Something to look forward to and hopefully, it will run smoothly and there will be a few more scalability and performance upgrades, as well as making it easier for devs to build upon. Sure, the markets might be in a bit of a slump, but it is during the bears that the bulls are made.

Speaking of, I have just crossed over the 200K threshold for in-game Splintershards (SPS) and am looking forward to continuing the growth for the next seven weeks or so. I have also got myself a node license, so I should be able to earn a little more on that come August also and, if things work out, I might even grab a second license in the future from the first Tranche - but that depends on several factors - including if there are any left when I am ready to buy.

A friend messaged me today saying how he has heard form all his crypto sources (Youtube and Twitter) that we are back on the 3 year halving schedule, so no ATH for awhile. That might be the case, but I see it as an opportunity personally, but it can be pretty depressing for those who think that numbers can only go up. For me and I am guessing many others, even if the numbers did keep going up, I feel I don't have enough volume to be comfortable, so it is useful to have an opportunity to buy and collect some more over the next couple years.

For example, in a hypothetical scenario, curation will add about 30% over the next three years alone, which would be about 70,000 HP. If the bull returns and we see the price return to where it was at the last ATH, that is around about 300K dollars worth. That doesn't sound too bad for three years of playing around on Hive, does it?

However, there is no guarantees in any of this, so I have to act on the belief that this is where we are heading in the future and hope that my beliefs are close to right. But, I know that there will be many who will roll the dice and try to take the short path to wealth or, get depressed at sell at the bottom - whatever that bottom might be. The thing is though, unless you are buying and holding that bottom, when the top comes, what is the point?

When it comes to earning on the platform, in the next three years there will be about 75 million Hive generated in all the various rewards and once spread out across the community earners, that doesn't end up being that much for most people. While not advice, I would consider buying some small amounts along the way, once you are comfortable with the price, whatever that means for you. But, it is the same for all tokens - if you believe that the future price is going to be higher than the current price, it has to be considered, doesn't it?

As I was saying the other day, while everyone is looking to pick the bottom, what might be better to consider is what you think the top might where you would consider selling. If you think it will get there, what are you willing to buy that price for? It is the cost of investment.

I am not good at predicting prices up or down, so I just buy bits and pieces when I can and hope that one day I will be willing to sell some of it or, use some of it in my daily life. I am not very good at doing this whole crypto thing in terms of selling and using, unlike some.

While three years sounds like a long time, it isn't but I still feel that it isn't going to be three years before we start seeing more upward mobility and, I don't think we are going to see that extreme bottom that many are predicting - but again, this is not my area - it could just be my hopes. Me reasoning for this is not very scientific, it is just that there are more people who have bought at a much higher price than today who are not only not going to sell, but will also be interested in buying significantly lower. If you bought at 50K, 20K is cheap and for the same investment, you can over triple your holdings. And, for those who have been selling into the bear market, they are going to likely start picking up their volume again, before they miss they opening.

Let's see though.

I didn't sell much, but I am hoping that I can keep my jobs going for the next few years and buy some of this low and sideways action, putting what I get to work somewhere in the meantime. A few percent a year for a few years, adds up significantly come the bull markets, unlike getting the same few percent on fiat. People tend to forget this.

You earn 30 percent over three years on fiat assets and you have 30% more value - but if you earn 30 percent more of an appreciating asset in three years and all of the holdings get factored. So, a hundred dollars worth of a token that earns 30% more of that token and then triples in value, will be worth 390 dollars, almost a 400% gain. This is like earning stock options in a startup when those stocks aren't worth much, but the company then goes on to do well.

Too many variables to know what is going to happen for sure though - so rather than worry too much, while the markets do what they do, I will do what I do and keep on being active in the things I am interested in :)

Afterall, it is just a hobby.