NFT's Bubble

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Avatar for juanmolina
3 years ago

Currently, anyone can go to a web portal and trade NFT's - they can buy, sell, and even create them.

Anyone can place their "Art" on one of these specialized web portals, categorize it as collectible, and price it in ETH.

Sites like:

https://nftshowroom.com/

https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks

They offer images whose prices exceed thousands of dollars.

Image Source


In my opinion, this market is currently overvalued, and as has happened in the history of cryptocurrency markets since the creation of the blockchain, an imminent decline is approaching that will cause 100% of the people who are currently investing in it. NFTS market, you will lose money.


We are experiencing a big NTFS Bubble

In any market when the price is higher than any historical peak, people will always find a reason to sell.

If added to this there is a trigger, some notorious fact that can shock the market, it will always be the weaker hands who will take the initiative, thus causing many people to make a profit by selling before the price begins to fall.

Today, although BTC is above 50K usd, it is still strong in terms of confidence, that is, the holding company continues to grow, investors continue to buy BTC and enthusiastic specialist analysts assume a new ceiling of 100K $ e even 200K $.

In the same way we always hear rumors and news that are intended to try to bring down this market. This does not mean that the market will reach zero, but we could be talking about a new strong decline in price, as has happened in the past.


We could take the historical behavior of BTC as an example.

f we look at the inflection points that I have indicated in the red circles, we can find out that these price falls were preceded by events that convulsed the market:

  • 2011: A user loses more than $ 500,000 in BTC at the hands of hackers and the MyBitcoin billfold disappears from the web.

  • 2013 early 2014: Monte.Gox exchange loses $ 460M in BTC and had to declare bankruptcy due to being hacked.

  • 2017-2018: In this third run, we had the BITCONNECT Ponzi scheme scam and the launch of ICOs (Initial Coin Offer) where most of the projects turned out to be fake.

These phenomena do not dictate an infallible behavior of the market, but at the time they had a great effect on the mentality of the people that motivated them to sell and thus the prices fell.


Overpriced NFT's

People who have acquired these NFTs are currently running a great risk of losing their money since the levels in which the market for Non-Fungible Tokens is located does not correspond to the true real value or utility of use that they have or may have. NFT's.

The greatest risk is that these Tokens are not liquid assets, of which the holders can dispose of or trade quickly, this will cause prices to plummet in the next and imminent fall of this market, since there will be people wanting to sell quickly and buyers who will wait for prices to drop further before bidding.

This does not happen with cryptocurrencies or crypto assets such as BTC, BCH, ETC, CARDANO and others, since they are liquid assets, fully fungible and interchangeable, which allows rapid commercialization. That is, holders should only go to an exchange of their choice, click and sell their cryptos, perhaps to obtain stable coins such as Tether and thus protect their capital.

On the other hand, to commercialize some NTF's it is necessary that there be a buyer who is interested in acquiring that specific Token, which could take a long time and lend itself to speculation and market manipulation, while the precious token is devalued.


Conclusion

The NFT's are market elements that it is important to understand before acquiring them. They are currently on their best run since their launch, I think it still has a lot of future, but like any other crypto market like BTC, BCH or ETH, they will not be able to escape a strong pullback eventually.


Disclaimer:

These have been my personal appraisals about the future of the NFT's. Please do not take this as financial advice. You alone are responsible for your crypto assets.


@juanmolina

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Avatar for juanmolina
3 years ago

Comments

It is very difficult for me to understand some fashionable concepts such as NFT's, among many other things, however, common sense told me this that you just wrote. Every market has ups and downs and the price at some point will have to reach the correct level. In my case, I would not know what to do with a Non-Fungible Token, so it does not make sense for me to acquire it, however, I must admit that I need to learn a lot from all this.

$ 0.00
3 years ago

I think we have very similar criteria since I don't see the true utility of NFTs either. On the other hand, I think that perhaps there may be an opportunity in this market, we would have to educate ourselves much more about it.

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3 years ago