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Time to Become Bullish about Bitcoin Again

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Avatar for johnwege
Written by   313
2 months ago

If you are reading this, congratulations.  You have survived one of bitcoin and crypto's most turbulent periods of price action.  A period where all expectations and what we thought we knew, were all shattered.  Going forward, the only truth that we can all admit is that the future is full of many possibilities, and none of us knows what will happen for sure.

Some of those expectations that we all had was that the bull market would act and perform like all past cycles before it.  That the bitcoin halving would take place, and approximately six month after that the bull market would commence.  Bitcoin would definitely reach a price point of several hundreds of thousands of dollars, ethereum would reach at least ten thousand dollars as well.  And as cycles always go, towards the end prices would go parabolic and there would be a blow off the top moment.  A moment that would signal to everyone that the bull market had officially come to an end. But we never had that moment, and this lead to endless debates online and amongst analysts about if were were in-fact in a bear cycle or a bull cycle.  Regardless, even if were in a bear cycle.  Surely the price of Bitcoin would never dip below $20,000.  Dipping below the previous all-time high set during the previous cycle. Something that had never happened in the history of Bitcoin.  But this golden goose would also be broken as well.

There were several reasons and arguably many black swan events that all happened around the same time period that would be the catalysts to make this happen.  Bitcoin had to content with an endless amount of FUD, unlike anything it has had to fight against before.  If we go back last May when things first became bearish for bitcoin, let's review everything it has had to go up against.  The first FUD that turned things bearish was when Elon Must and Tesla first sold a portion of their bitcoin.  But the real attack here was when Must detailed his doubts about bitcoin's environmental issues, namely ESG.  With Must being so influential, there was the first catalyst that would spawn debate after debate about how bitcoin was horrible for the world.  Soon after, China would ban bitcoin and mining within its country, which led to a huge exodus of mining power leaving the country.  A move that temporary had a huge affect on the mining hash rate and sent shockwaves of doubt across the industry.  As bitcoin always does, it would recover from these and begin to march its way back upwards, only to face even more FUD thrown its way.  The next target was US regulations.  The US was finally going to regulate the crypto industry and this also sent shockwaves across the industry.  After that, inflation began to set in.  The government began raising interest rates, which would make the market go risk off.  Soon after, new covid panic set in, which would cause further fear in financial markets.  But once again, bitcoin lived to see another day and began to recover.  But then Russia would invade the Ukraine, the US would continue to raise rates further.  The UST/Luna coins would essentially go to zero, and there would be large fallout with many companies such as 3AC, Celsius, Voyager and more becoming insolvent.  And finally, the world had been waiting to hear whether the US had in-fact entered a recession. 

This brings us to present day.  Bitcoin and crypto have dealt with all of those things, and many more that I didn't even mention, yet bitcoin is still hovering around a price point of $24k.  A remarkable feat, if you ask me.  For the first time in over 18 months, it appears that things might be turning bullish again.  While admittedly a lot hangs on new macro developments, but it is looking like we might have finally turned the corner and the worst of it may be finished.  Back to crypto, the largest recent downturn has been due to the collapse and insolvency of some of the biggest companies in crypto.  It appears that those situations are also coming to an end, or at the very least, the selling has come to an end.  

To put it frankly, we have run out of sellers.  Everyone who wanted to sell, could sell, or didn't have complete conviction have probably already sold out of their crypto positions.  Leaving only those with great conviction left.  While this cycle has been unlike any other that I've experienced before, but this is still the same thing that happens at the end of any bear cycle.  When you finally run out of sellers, that is when the price will finally begin to go up.

And so if you are reading this, this means that there is a good chance that you have survived the worst part of the bear market and we have reached the bottom. The next question is what did you do during this period to take advantage and set yourself up for success in the future.

While most people FOMO in and buy during the bullish times.  The truth is that portfolio's are built during the scariest of times, when the market is panicking.  During the covid March crash of 2020, people were able to get bitcoin at $3,200, Ethereum at $80, Cardano at $0.01 and the list goes on.

While the numbers are much higher now, I would argue that the last two months were just as great of an opportunity.  Bitcoin could have been had for $17k, ethereum for $900, and the list goes on.  During this time, were you able to take advantage and build up your portfolio? Where you afraid, and instead decided to wait and see what was going to happen? This is why dollar cost averaging is so crucially important.  Each time you get paid, always buy no matter the price.  This will help you to catch dips but also take the stress out of buying for many people.  No longer will you need to worry about trying to get the best price.  With that said, as great as dollar cost averaging is, it is important to keep cash on the side as well.  Having strong conviction is great, but it doesn't do any good if you aren't able to take advantage of the great opportunities out there.  Once you have been investing in the crypto markets for quite some time.  You will begin to see just how volatile the market really is.  While it might not feel like it in the moment, if you keep money on the side, eventually great dips and opportunities will come your way.  You just need to be ready to take advantage of them.

And so it finally appears that the market will turn bullish again.  While I'm not predicting new all-time high prices by the end of the year. I am however predicting that we will see many of our favorite coins begin to recover.  The Ethereum merge is still on the horizon, and I believe that this will be a further catalyst that helps to move the market upwards.

How about you? Have you been buying during the last few months, or have you been taking the wait and see approach?

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As always, thank you for reading!

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Written by   313
2 months ago
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Comments

My guess is it will hit around $30 this time. But let's see. As you said, it may not be a good time for new investors but those who are holding can gain more.

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2 months ago

I guess this is now the best time to hold before selling? We are almost in half of the previous 300$BCH and BTC. Do you think it will go up again by next month?

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2 months ago