Bitcoin's Future Price Catalysts

The Bitcoin market has been in a downturn for nearly a year and a half now.  The only exception was October of 2021 when we would see a brief momentum rally that led to new all-time high prices.  But, it was short-lived and has been in the red since then.  The excitement has been sucked out of the industry, and most would now admit that we have been in a bear market.  For many, the last several months have not been a fun time to be investing in this market.  If they were able to survive and still hold onto their coins.  That would be considered a "win" in this market.  It has been one black swan event happening after another.  When prices begin to feel like they have reached the bottom, that is when the next round of FUD is delivered.  Such as macro events happening worldwide, Luna/UST imploding, Celsius and 3AC becoming insolvent, and the domino effect that would result from that.  Even with all of those negative things happening, people still want to feel optimistic about this market. They have begun looking out on the horizon on what could be the next catalyst for bitcoin to send its price higher.  

During the last bull cycle, several factors sent BTC's price soaring upwards.  Bitcoin was fresh off of the BTC halving, governments began printing money during the covid outbreak and gave out stimuli to people, the GBTC arbitrage, and companies like Microstrategy and Tesla began putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets.  When markets are in a downturn, we also see these exciting development disappear.  However, Bitcoin does move in cycles and exciting days will soon be upon here again.  

Which leads us to the question of what will be the things on Bitcoin's horizon that sends prices to the levels that we have all been dreaming of?

A key thing to note is that it's likely that one individual event won't be solely responsible for BTC's price going parabolic. Instead, they will work together in collaboration to eventually move Bitcoin upward.

1) The Ethereum Merge

The soonest event that could send the price of Bitcoin upward is oddly enough a different cryptocurrency, Ethereum. The long-awaited Ethereum merge into becoming a proof-of-stake chain is only a few weeks away.  The development of this upgrade has been so heavily delayed that it has become legendary.  But, the fact is that this upgrade will send shockwaves throughout the market.  It may not be on day 1 of the upgrade, or even a few weeks later.  But it will eventually be felt.  Ethereum will be seeing its issuance rate cut by nearly 90% and actually could become a deflationary blockchain.  Bitcoin and Ethereum are the only two assets in crypto that have the power to move the entire market.  Recently, Ethereum's market pull has been increasing as well.  What this all means is that Ethereum's price is going to go up, and it will bring Bitcoin up along with it.  If the market was still in bull season or even just a season of market peace.  It would be possible to see ETH's price double, and maybe even BTC going up by 50%.  Unfortunately, the macro market has everyone shaken up, and it is unknown how well the ETH merge will be able to move the crypto market while other financial markets are collapsing.

2) The Market and World Settling Down

Even though many of us wouldn't want to admit it, the largest factor in Bitcoin's price in the short term has nothing to do with Bitcoin itself. Instead, it is the outside world and macro situation. During the last year or more, this is the key factor that cut bitcoin's upwards movement short.  Effectively ending the bull market and sending the price of BTC lower than many of us thought we would ever see again.  First, there were the fears of new covid strains, then fears of inflation that would lead to real inflation.  Then came the Russia/Ukraine war, which compounded everything.  It's probably safe to say that all of these things will not last forever.  Especially with inflation, we may begin to see better reports coming out. When that happens we will begin to see all financial assets, including Bitcoin, to see their prices recover.  If all of those macro problems were to magically be improved that would send the market into a euphoric movement upwards.

3) The Infamous US Bitcoin Spot ETF

The American Bitcoin spot ETF has been rumored for years now.  You could argue its mythical level is on the same scale as Ethereum's merge.  Often rumored, but never happening.  Well, the Ethereum merge is going to happen, and maybe that can give us hope for the spot ETF happening as well.  While there are many other Bitcoin Spot ETF's around the world.  The fact is that the US financial market is still the largest in the world, and also has the greatest influence as well.  Meaning that there is enough money in this market alone, that this announcement would instantly send BTC's price soaring.  But, I would argue the most important factor is the influence it would bring.  Like it or not, many countries look to what the US is doing and also follow suit.  Meaning that if the US would approve a Spot Bitcoin ETF, it would send a domino effect across the world.  Soon after, nearly every country would also be offering spot ETFs as well.  We can only imagine what that would do to the price of Bitcoin.  This is all a moot point if the ETF is never approved.  After all, after so many rejections, why should we expect it to ever be approved?  The reason for this is simple.  The SEC has recently been receiving much more intense scrutiny about them not approving a Bitcoin ETF, and also not regulating the crypto market.  So much so, that the power to regulate Bitcoin and crypto may be handed over to the CFTC.  A part of the government that has criticized the SEC for not regulating crypto and also not approving a spot ETF.  In short, it would make a Bitcoin ETF more likely.

4) The Bitcoin Halving of 2024

As odd as it sounds, the Bitcoin of 2024 is quickly approaching.  We are now closer to the next halving than we are to when Tesla first bought bitcoin in 2021.  If you're not aware, the bitcoin halving occurs approximately every 4 years.  Then is when the issuance of new Bitcoin is cut in half.  Which eventually causes a supply shock and sends the price of Bitcoin upward.  While this event is still about 18 months away, it is important to always keep it in mind.  It is the catalyst that moves the entire market and it should be everyone's goal to accumulate as much bitcoin as possible before it happens. Especially while prices are so cheap.  While I'm no expert and my price advice definitely shouldn't be trusted.  If you look back at previous bitcoin halvings. They all perform very similarly.  The having will occur and the price will see a little bump up in the short-term.  That is typically followed by about 4-5 months of moving sideways.  Then, in the fall prices begin jumping up.  The market and world are completely different now, and who knows if history will repeat.  But if it does, we will see some very good days in the future.

Those are the four main things that I see being catalysts for the price of Bitcoin.  But, there are many other catalysts as well.  Things such as other companies putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets.  Countries making Bitcoin legal tender within their borders. Also, countries like El Salvador who are planning to issue Bitcoin bonds could have a large effect as well.  If inflation were to continue to skyrocket, that could cause people to rush to try and find finite assets such as bitcoin. Which as you guessed, would help Bitcoin's price. And finally, if there were to be some major adoption or protocol upgrade, that could help Bitcoin as well.  While things may seem grim in the world at the moment, I feel hopeful because I own Bitcoin.  We will all look back to this time and wished that we had bought more Bitcoin.

How about you? What do you see being major catalysts to increase Bitcoin's price?  What did I forget to add?

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As always, thank you for reading!