Altseason, When?!

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The image you see in this post is a promotional image from my Binance app. It's my EOS/USDT 10x-leveraged short which I opened on Oct 29. As you see, I've made kinda 143% profit in just 5 days!

Well, actually, it's not that rosy as it may look. This short is a hedge for my spot position in EOS. In other words, while I have a 143% profit in futures, I have the same loss at spot. In yet other words, I'm at breakeven with EOS. I have several more positions like this one, and in all of them my shorts show profits well above 100%.

Also I own 2 BAND tokens. A couple of weeks ago I bought 1 BAND at ~53K sats (or about US$5). At that time it looked like a good price. Then I bought yet another 1 BAND at ~43K sats. Now 1 BAND is at 29K sats (or about $4). A good example of the dollar-cost averaging strategy. Unfortunately, I didn't short BAND.

Before, during each BTC rally we had an altcoin season. So it was in 2017, so it was in July-August 2020. The alts followed BTC, and many of them rallied even faster than BTC.

It's not so anymore.

Honestly, I don't know why this time there is no rally in alts. The only reason I can imagine is that this time everyone (especially, so-called "institutional investors") is much more interested in BTC, than in alts, and people simply sell their alts for BTC (or rather, they prefer to buy BTC and not alts).

So far when BTC goes up -- the alts go down. When BTC goes down -- the alts go down even further, often outperforming BTC. And the situation will be like this until the end of BTC rally...

I believe that when BTC rally is over and the price will stay in the flat for several weeks, a month, or so -- the alts will gradually revive. Great news for DCA lovers! The only problem is that not all alts will revive. Only the strongest will survive, only the alts backed by really real something (an asset or an idea) to justify their price being above zero. Many will become just undead, showing occasional pumps and dumps, but no more. Great many will continue their route to zero. The current BTC rally will sanitize the alts market to a great extend.

In other words, this time there will be no altseason as we used to know it...

Well, I hope that my EOS or BAND holdings will revive at the end of the day. But before I would expect to have even more profits from my altcoins shorts, because I would expect a dump in BTC after the US elections (simply because the "institutional investors" might bring their old stock market tricks along to crypto markets).

Disclaimer: the article is cross-posted in my blogs, not financial advice, etc.

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Comments

I wonder why people buy BTC. Already now the transaction fees are over $10. If the price is to rise further, the transaction fees will exceed $100. This coin makes no sense.

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4 years ago