The crypto bull shows no signs of weakness. But occasionally it makes sudden spikes. The market hasn't been able to determine its direction yet. But I think these sudden ups and downs will soon stop and set their direction upward.
Now let's examine it according to the data and information we have.
The old saying, history never repeats, but often rhymes, something used when it comes to four-year cycles that take place around the crypto industry and bitcoin halves.
We've seen this in terms of price, and it showed a remarkably similar pattern with the last two halves in 2017 and 2013 before.
Bitcoin moves in a very predictive pattern in terms of cycles around halves. The only difference this time around may be the March 2020 drop due to covid, but that was a big chance for anyone who wanted to buy it. If everything goes according to plan, BTC may have some fuel left by the second half of the year. 100,000 and above.
What about the Alts? Where are we in the market cycle in terms of alternative season?
We will try to answer this question using the following indicators:
Bitcoin dominance BTC.D
Ethereum price performance
Other best token performance
Bitcoin Domination
Unlike BTC's price chart and halving events, the Bitcoin dominance indicator BTC.D seems to have a slightly shorter history. Most of the tokens were not before 2015 or even before 2017. Most of the historical data for them is from the 2017 halving and beyond. Before 2017, BTC dominated with more than 90% share of the market.
The above includes from coinmarketcap and other tokens such as Ethereum.
The clean BTC Domination chart looks like this.
We may notice that BTC dominance before 2017 was extremely high at 90% plus and this period is not an indicator.
In 2017, we saw a big drop in bitcoin domination three times, in the spring, then in the summer, and in December 2017 and early 2018.
At its lowest levels, Bitcoin dominance was at 36% of the total cryptocurrency market cap.
In the bear market, BTC.D peaked at 72% in September 2019. Since then, it has been slowly declining until September 2020, where it is indicated to increase. Since January 2021, BTC.D has been falling again and is now at 55%.
For a sub season, we usually want:
Bitcoin rises
Alts getting higher
Bitcoin dominance decreases
Where do we go from here?
If we look at 2017 as an indicator, there is still a lot more room for BTC.D to fall. However, this does not mean that it will be. If we go below 50% or go somewhere in the 40% to 45% range, I will consider BTC.D low.
Looking at 2017 BTC.D, it may increase at least one more time before actually entering a sub-season.
BTC can have another run when it breaks 100,000, and this will increase its dominance when it runs, then go sideways and then the alts will be pumped. This process has two chances to be repeated. Write once, another time in autumn.
As mentioned, the BTC.D chart is fairly young with no historical data, so things can go very different from the possible options presented above.
Ethereum Price Performance
Ethereum plays a special role in the crypto markets and acts as the flagship of the gold. When Bitcoin dominance falls, the biggest reason is Ethereum. In the past in the bull run, Ethereum was very close to BTC market cap on two occasions.
This BTC has a market cap of 1.1T at the time of writing and a market cap of ETH 247B or bitcoin. This is low ETH to BTC capitalization. When ETH is at least half of the BTC market cap, we can say that it is a bottom zone.
In terms of price, BTC is currently at its previous high of 60k x3, while ETH is slightly above the previous ATH, which was 1.8k. ETH needs to be somewhere around 5k to match BTC performance.
However, this time, we can add some other tokens such as BSC, ADA, DOT under the Ethereum category. BSC and ADA have shown a great performance, especially in the last few months, by increasing 10 times. If we include them in this category, we will reach somewhere around 400 billion in market value right now. BTC is close to of the market cap, but not yet.
Other Best Token Performance
What about other top coins? Here is a table.
Judging by this metric, most of the top cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days. Only four tokens haven't done this yet. Usually we can say that we are in alternate season when more than half of the coins outperform BTC. With this criterion, we are already in the lower season.
Overall, what can be said from the above is that with a 55% bitcoin dominance, we still have a little more room for alts.
As the flagship of Alts, Ethereum lags behind Bitcoin and while bitcoin was x3, it is just above its previous all-time high. Other tokens competing with Ethereum, such as BSC and ADA, have done a nice job and rose to x10 in previous months. Even if we add the market cap above Ethereum, the capitalization of ETH to BTC is still low.
Most of the other top 50 tokens have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days.
BTC Monthly Candles
BTC Annual Candles
This annual candle needs to increase a little more to keep up with the previous cycles in 2013 and 2017.
Note: When I look at the Bitcoin monthly chart I get scared but then I look at the annual one and I feel better 😊.
My personal opinion is that we have room to go in this market, at least until the end of the summer or the end of the year in a positive scenario. Bitcoin should reach 100k in the year and we will see the bottom rise. This of course can be completely wrong and the market can do its job. Everyone should act according to their own beliefs and comfort and do not invest more than you can afford to lose 😊. One thing is for sure, playing the long game is always a winning bet, so if you have at least five years of patience and keep your tokens, you will most likely be green 😊.
I am waiting for your likes and comments.
2 tokens that have given a solid push to my portfolio are Matic and cake.