The majority of options traders in America claim that Bitcoin could reach IDR 1.15 trillion around May 2021.
Data from analytics firm Skew shows that there is a 6% chance that their predictions will be correct.
With the anticipation of Coinbase tingling in the American stock market, options traders expect Bitcoin to rise.
On March 24, 2021, the founder of crypto analysis company Glassnode stated that the majority of options traders on Deribit stated that Bitcoin would be up to IDR 1.15 Trillion.
They predict that this price will be reached by Bitcoin on April 30, 2021, although there is no real evidence or confirmation yet.
But everything is seen from the market sentiment data where there are options contracts worth 4,000 Bitcoin that were bought with a target at that price.
If in April 2021 Bitcoin doesn't reach that price, most of those contracts will end in losses.
However, according to Skew, the probability that they are correct is around 6.19%, which seems very small, although it is still possible.
In addition, there is also some evidence to support that the predictions of the majority of traders can be achieved.
Predictions Support Multiple Data
One of the things that is supportive is the volume around derivative contracts which have a target of IDR 1.73 Trillion for Bitcoin.
This means that if it is true, there is a possibility that Bitcoin could rise to that price in April 2021.
However, according to Skew, the possibility of the prediction being correct is only 2.15% which indicates that the probability is still very small.
However, the volume of those who predict that Bitcoin will fall is also significant.
So there is still a possibility that a price prediction of around IDR 1 trillion will be difficult to achieve.
Skew pointed out that the Bitcoin options contract expiring on April 30, 2021 is the third largest contract in volume on the Bitcoin derivatives market.
Currently, the volume of contract opening has reached a value equivalent to 38,700 BTC, indicating the large volume of Bitcoin.
The contract with the expiration of 21 June 2021 for Bitcoin ranks second with an opening volume equivalent to 42,300 Bitcoins.
Despite competition from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CMEE) to the Bitcoin derivatives contract sector in 2020, Deribit still dominates volume.
Thus, the research data obtained by Skew shows unbiased data and can be used as a reference.
Skew predicts that 91% of options traded in the last 24 hours occurred on Deribit.
This figure is followed by Bit.com with 5%, OKEx with 2% and CME and LedgerX with 1% each.
Currently there is an option contract worth 117,900 BTC which will expire with a value of around Rp. 85.6 trillion.
So there is possible volatility in trading on the Bitcoin market at the moment.