Altcoins are still holding, some of them even at new all-time highs but Bitcoin is already declining signaling the end of the current bull run. Some are blaming Elon Musk for market manipulation. I believe he is just a catalyst for what was going to happen anyways.
When I joined Cryptoland at the end of the last bull run, losing money in the crash like most of us, one of the things keeping me going and involved with crypto, were those guys who were more experienced and who had already gone through one or two of these so-called Bitcoin cycles. At the time I found it hard to believe that a financial asset would behave that way, but by now I am strongly convinced of this model believing it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Investors are following these cycles making them happen over and over again.
This is the reason certain insiders are always here before the public. They know what is going to happen by looking at historical data. Note that I am not giving any financial advice here. Do your own research and don’t trust a single random guy on the internet. Still, I would like to share (for purposes of discussing with minds alike) why I’m not ‘buying the dip’ at the moment and why I intend to buy back in heavily in the future.
Let’s take a look at what is going on now and compare the chart to what happened last time. (Chart data provided by Coinmarketcap).
Looks similar? That’s no coincidence. If you compare 2014 charts with 2017 you will notice the same similarities. So, if 2021 was a copy of 2017, would it not be possible to predict the future outcome?
Firstly, we would need to position ourselves at the right spot in the chart. The easiest way to do this, is by pinning down certain landmarks. I will use the bear trap at the beginning of the parabolic curve and the bull trap at the end of it as landmarks.
We now find ourselves here. Note that there might be another bull trap making this small peak vanish on a zoomed out chart before things come crashing down.
What happened then was a 60% decline!
Fasten your seatbelts, guys. This would leave us at 22k by the end of June (sidenote: I sketched this myself with mediocre tools and noticed that darkmode screws up the transparent background of the image - if you can't read it, turn off darkmode):
Things will seem to recover afterwards but only short term with an overall 25% further decline over the following 10 months:
Another final dip should follow to the new bottom of presumably 13k with lasting support over approximately 4 months of trading sideways.
Fast forward to August 2022 we should see a change of trend. The bullish momentum will pick up again. Slowly at first. And it will need at least another year before we notice any traction pointing towards the parabolic bubble curve we all came to love. But by December 2024 it is very possible that we are presented with a new all-time high. If it’s a times 3 again, this time we will go up to 180k USD per BTC!
Disclaimer: No financial advice included in this article. Just sharing my personal experience. Do your own research!
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Images courtesy of Unsplash.com or screenshots taken myself.
This is a re-published post from my account on the HIVE blockchain.
