On Climate Change: Theories
In one of my previous article, I've discussed climate change, what causes it, it's effects and the evidences of its existence. Now I want to share to you two theories pointing to climate change. These are:
Milankovitch Theory
Sunspot Cycle
The first one, Milankovitch Theory states that as the Earth travels around the sun, cyclical variations of Earth-sun geometry combine to produce variations in the amount of solar energy that Earth receives. These cyclical variations include three elements which are: Earth's orbital eccentricity, Earth's axial inclination, and the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation. The Earth has a varying eccentricity, with a cycle of 100,000 years. Eccentricity measures the shape of the sun's orbit. High eccentricity at aphelion means less solar energy. Aphelion is the time when Earth is in its farthest point from the sun. Meanwhile, high eccentricity at perihelion means more solar energy. Perihelion as contrast to aphelion, is the time when the Earth is in its nearest point from the sun. There is a difference of about 6% amount of radiation during aphelion and perihelion. Earth reached its maximum eccentricity about 11,000 years ago or from the last ice age. At present time, Earth has an eccentricity of 0.017, with 0.07 as a maximum. It is a relative low eccentricity, which means that Earth is in an interglacial period, or simply a period of warming.
The second theory, is the Sunspot Cycle. Sunspots are regions where the temperature drops nearly 1500°C from the surface of the sun. They are first observed in 1610 by Galileo Galilei. It was determined by Astronomer Samuel Schwabe that sunspots have an 11-year cycle of waxing and waning, or in simpler terms, getting stronger and weaker respectively. Sunspots were recorded from 1645 to 1715 by which many regions of the planet experienced very low temperatures. Sunspots decrease the amount of solar radiation because they form areas where magnetic fields are strong that they are able to keep heat from reaching the surface of the Earth. Many weather events are associated with this solar activity such as the South Asian monsoons and local rainfalls around the world. It also affects climate as it influences solar emissions from the sun to Earth.
Sunspot regions are said to have spectral radiance which have a direct impact on climate and weather patterns as it affects certain layers of the atmosphere. Studies have shown that there is less amount of solar radiation when these sunspot regions are centered on what they called the solar disk. According to satellite data collected over several decades, there is a 0.1% change in solar radiation between the minimum and maximum periods of the sunspot cycle that has about 0.2 W/m² effect in the ocean surface, or in other words, a change in ocean temperature. Increased amount of radiation exposure in land can intensify weather events like monsoon and La Niña while increased solar radiation exposure in ocean regions could increase evaporation, higher temperature spike and higher moisture level that leads to more rainfall. The first sunspot cycle started at 1755 and at present time, it is now in cycle 24 and it reached its peak at year 2014.
As we can see, these are two relative theories of external forcings that suggest sensible changes in our climate system. While there is an increase in temperature, there is also noticable changes in solar activity of the sun that affects weather patterns. They may be two contradicting ideas because it suggests effects of warming and cooling, but their bottom line still, is our climate is indeed changing.
Link for my previous article about climate change below:
https://read.cash/@glossyberrycraze/lets-talk-about-earth-climate-change-ef82b2a3
Thank you for reading. ❤️
Am I the only one who can't access noise.cash?
Gender Identity: Nature or Nurture
Gender identity is defined as a personal conception of oneself as male or female, both, or neither. It is a person's own internal sense and personal experience of gender. Only the individual can determine their own gender identity. This concept is closely related to gender role, which is the outward manifestation of personality that reflects gender identity. In the much-debated topic of gender identity being whether in nature or nurtured, I believe it is in nature. In gender identity, nature refers to what we are born with– genes, hormones, nervous system, and brain. Nurture, on the other hand, refers to how we are brought up, our experiences within our environment, our family background, education, and culture.
Studies show evidences supporting the biological nature of gender identity. A seminal study by Meyer-Bahlburg was conducted involving outcomes of XY individuals raised as females due to severe non-hormonal, anatomic abnormalities of sex development like penile agenesis, cloacal exstrophy, and penile ablation. In the study, 78% of all female-assigned 46 XY patients were living as females. While the majority of these patients did not initiate a gender change to male, none of the 15 male-raised 46 XY patients initiated a gender change to female. Another seminal study was conducted by Reiner and Gearheart where they reviewed 16 XY genotype subjects with cloacal exstrophy who underwent female gender reassignment surgery. The result shows that four (4) out of 14 individuals raised as girls announced they were male, and other 4 chose to live as boys when they became aware of their genotype. Similar to the story of the boy who lived as a girl, the case of David Reimer, where he chose to live as a male when he learned about the truth. Another evidence, are the people born with congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), a condition which causes them to have significantly higher levels of androgen, a male hormone. Boys with CAH play and behave much like normal male peers. However, girls born with CAH tend to display male traits and behavior. They are also born with external genitalia that look like those of males'. But even though that is the case, they are still female because their gender is determined genetically rather than anatomically. Girls with CAH prefer to play with male peers and choose masculine toys and activities. In short, higher levels of male hormones strongly influence girls to behave like boys. These are some of the evidences that support the biological nature of gender identity.
As it was defined, gender identity is a personal conception and it is self-identified. The definition itself tells everything. The John/Joan case is a good example of how gender identity is innate itself. Even if he was raised as a girl, later in his life he still identified himself as male. One's gender identity is something that everyone must accept and respect. I believe it is a line we must not easily just cross. No one can decide our own gender identity, more than ourselves, not even our family members.
We were tasked to write a position paper (for a debate) in one of our minor subjects regarding this topic, after discussing the John/Joan case. I'm not fully satisfied with my paper since I crammed this, to be honest. 😆 But I still hope you get something out of this one.
Btw, the John/Joan case is about the boy who lived as a girl, Bruce a.k.a. David Reimer. He was a victim of a mechanical malfunction during circumcision when he and his twin brother were still babies. The doctor encouraged his parents to treat him as a girl, to let him live as a girl, so they did. But eventually, he learned the truth and he chose to be a male.
That's all I can tell. If you want to know more, you can search it up because it had such a sad ending.
Thank you for reading. ❤️
Let's talk about Earth: Climate Change
Do you believe in Climate Change?
Ever since I was in high school, climate change has been a relevant issue that concerns many different human aspects. I was an active member of our school's environmental organization and climate change was always mentioned during symposiums. If I were to be asked, of course I believe in climate change. We have been experiencing its effects over the past decades. According to the Australian Academy of Science, climate change is a change in the pattern of weather and related changes in oceans, land surfaces and ice sheets occurring over time scales of decades or longer. It is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system that persists for several decades. Causes of climate change are due to natural processes and human activities. Natural processes may include internal variability like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and external variabilities like volcanic activities and changes in the sun's energy output. But for me, human influences has the greater contribution for climate change. These human activities are estimated to have increased Earth's global average temperature by about 1° C per decade since the 1950s and is still increasing. Human activities include burning of fossil fuels, releasing chemicals into the atmosphere, deforestation, and industrial expansions. I guess it is safe to say that one of the most prominent effects of climate change is global warming.
Scientific evidences are present to show the rapid changing of our climate system. The world has been experiencing global temperature rise since the late 19th century and most of the warming occured in the past 40 years, with the last seven years being the warmest. The temperature rise has caused the oceans to warm as they have been absorbing much of the increased heat. Another evidence is the shrinking of ice sheets, particularly in Greenland and Antarctica where data show that Greenland have lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2019 while about 148 billion tons in Antarctica. Glacial retreat, decreased snow cover and declining Arctic sea ice are more of the evidence concerning the world's ice deposits. In the last century, global sea level rose for about 20 cm and this rate nearly doubled in the last two decades and is still accelerating every year. This resulted in an increase in the number of flooding and erosion. Climate change also caused damaging weather events such as hurricanes, floods and storms.
The impacts of climate change range from global impacts as a whole up to the things we basically depend on– water, transportation, energy sources, agriculture, and even human health. Some regions in the world are experiencing drought while others are experiencing floods and water quality problems due to freshwater shortage. Climate change also brought extreme challenges in the agricultural sector that results in disruption of food availability and affects food quality. The increase in food prices and loss of crops and livestock are due to reductions of agricultural productivity. Scientists have predicted that the effects of climate change will still persist in the coming years or decades.
This problem primarily started from us, humans so the solution for this also starts from us. What can we do? When it comes to our environment, even little things matter. The things you don't think will have an impact, will do, if we do it habitually and if we do it together. We can start by using less energy and water, turning off lights and television, and unplugging appliances when not in use are some of the small things we can do at home. We can save water by turning off the faucet while brushing your teeth, and reusing laundry-used water in your comfort rooms. We can also help by planting trees, and participating in different campaigns and support groups. And the simplest thing we can do is knowing about Earth, knowing the problem and not be part of it. Be part of the solution. Normalize doing little things habitually for a greater cause.
So you, do you believe in climate change?
Thank you for reading ❤️
Learning Korean
Hi!
I have been vocal about my love for the korean culture– mainly korean music and korean dramas. For the past months I've been into other genres of korean music like hip hop and RnB and I found it very meaningful too and enjoyable at the same time just like Kpop.
When it comes to korean dramas, it's always 10/10. I have no words actually for korean series because they are just generally so good. And because of my love for korean wave, my interest got me to learning the Korean alphabet– the *hangul.*
So I'm gonna share to you what I have learned, and I'm still learning as a matter of fact. These are just the basic ones, the vowels and consonants. This will also serve as my practice so I hope you enjoy and learn something!
Let's get started!
**VOWELS**
There are 21 vowels in the Korean Alphabet.
ㅏ (a)
ㅓ (eo)
ㅗ (o)
ㅜ (u)
ㅡ (eu)
ㅣ (i)
ㅐ (ae)
ㅔ (e)
ㅑ (ya)
ㅕ (yeo)
ㅛ (yo)
ㅠ (yu)
ㅖ (ye)
ㅒ (yae)
와 (wa)
왜 (wae)
웨 (we)
위 (wi)
의 (ui)
외 (oe)
워 (wo)
**CONSONANTS**
And there are 14 single consonants.
ㄱ (g/k)
ㄴ (n)
ㄷ (d/t)
ㄹ (r/l)
ㅁ (m)
ㅂ (b/p)
ㅅ (s)
ㅇ (ng)
ㅈ (j)
ㅊ (ch)
ㅋ (k)
ㅌ (t)
ㅍ (p)
ㅎ (h)
So these are how the Hangul, or the korean alphabet is written. As you can see in the romanization or the translation into the English alphabet of the consonants, some letters are repeated and based on my understanding, their usage will be based on the word itself and it's pronounciation. Unlike in English alphabet were words are written letter by letter, in Hangul they are written syllable by syllable.
Let me give an example:
Hangul will be written as : 한 글 and it's romanization will be : *han geul.*
That's it for my mini tutorial/practice. 😆
Hope you learn something or this may spark your interest in learning Hangul as well. Next time (if I still have time lol), I will share how they are being read or pronounced. There are also double consonants but I'm still learning how to use it so I might share that maybe next time too.
Thank you!
Give Up Tomorrow: A Documentary Review
Hello, it's me again.
A recent case regarding the death of a flight attendant was the "talk of the town" in our country. It was all over the news and social media sites. But I'm not going to talk about that particular issue. As I was reading articles and other people's opinions about the said flight attendant's case, I came across a documentary about Paco Larrañaga's case, which happened on year 1997. The documentary was entitled "Give Up Tomorrow", and it was released year 2018. Why was Paco's case brought up to Christine Dacera's issue? Because both cases have somehow a similarity in a sense that the accused went through "trial by publicity" without sufficient evidences.
The name Paco Larrañaga was not new to me actually. I have heard and read about him years ago, but I never knew of the documentary until days ago. Curious as I am, I watched it. It was an hour and a half long documentary that talks about the truth of Paco Larrañaga's case.
Disclaimer: The things I am going to mention about the case are all based on the documentary, however my opinions are all about the documentary itself, as a whole.
First, who is Paco Larrañaga?
Francisco Juan "Paco" Larrañaga is half Filipino and half Spanish citizen. He was attending a culinary school in Manila and if I am not mistaken, he was 19 years old that time which was year 1997 when this case happened. He was convicted, along six other suspects for the murder of Chiong sisters, Marijoy and Jacqueline who were from Cebu City. Hence, they were dubbed as "Cebu7". In 2004, the Supreme Court imposed the death penalty for the accused. And on 2006, through the help of the Spanish government, the death penalty was abolished. A treaty was signed between the government of Spain and Philippines in 2007 to allow Paco serve his sentence in Spain because he's still a Spanish citizen. Paco was then transferred to Spain.
No one knows what really happened to the Chiong sisters on the night of July 16 1997. In fact, only one body out of the two supposedly victims were found. Up to this day, the other one has not been found still. But where is Paco Larrañaga that day? According to his classmates and professors, and it was proven in the data of their school records, Paco attended his classes that day and was able to take his exams the day after. There were also photographs of him, on the night of July 16, 1997 having fun and in a party with his classmates. There were enough evidences to prove that Paco was innocent. He was in Manila and the incident happened on Cebu. How could he possibly fly to Cebu from Manila and return the next day? Something was definitely not right.
To add on to all of this, the body that was found didn't undergo DNA testing to prove that it was indeed, one of the Chiong sisters. That was supposed to be the key evidence to prove that the suspects were innocent but the judge did not approve for DNA testing. The judge convicted the Cebu7 and soon after, he committed suicide.
I cannot and will not going to narrate everything that was on the documentary because you have to see it yourself. It was well-done, you can say that the producers really researched about the issue. Everything was explained well. This documentary was worth your time. It was heartbreaking, and it will make you really angry. It will make you realize a lot of things about the justice system in the Philippines. It's embarrassing as a Filipino, but that is the truth.
And if ever you think your life is over, your life is a mess, remember Paco and the Cebu7. If you want to give up, tell yourself to give up tomorrow. And when tomorrow comes and you still want to give up, tell yourself again to give up tomorrow.
Title: Give Up Tomorrow
Rate: 10/10 [this is a personal rating]
Note: If you would like to watch the documentary, it's available on YouTube.
Thank you!
Merry Christmas, everyone! 💖 Stay safe. May the spirit of Christmas bring us hope and happiness. God bless. 😇
Weather Radar Network Benefit Model for Flash Flood Casualty Reduction: A Review
Weather Radar Network Benefit Model for Flash Flood Casualty Reduction
John Y. N. Chi and James M. Kurdzo
Summary
Statistical data shows that a better radar coverage improves flash flood warning performance, and thus reduce casualty rate. Given this relationship, a weather radar network benefit model was constructed in line with flash flood casualty reduction. The monetized geospatial model was applied to the contiguous United States (CONUS) weather radar and resulted a flash flood benefit of $316 million per year. The remaining benefit pool yielded $13 million per year and including better radar coverage and flash flood warning improvements, the maximum benefit pool is $69 million per year. These indicates the model's effectivity with regards to flash flood warning decision process.
Problem and Statement of Purpose
Weather radars are useful especially in meteorology because they provide observational data for better weather forecasts. They play an important role for depicting weather for real-time decision making. A benefit model for tornadoes was previously published so in this paper, they focused on heavy-rain induced flash floods. It was assumed that a better radar coverage will also improve warning performance and a better warning performance in turn, will reduce casualty rate. The purpose of this model is to monetize its benefit in relation to its effect on casualty reduction. In the given chain from weather radar coverage to casualty rate, how the flash flood warning decisions are made must be examined, and how the flash flood warning affects casualty rate with the monetization follows.
Review of Related Literature
A benefit model for tornadoes was previously published and it was the study that influenced this benefit model for flash floods. The tornado benefit model was also monetized and it was primarily developed for weather radar network configurations. Results show that two key radar coverage parameters such as the fraction of vertical space observed and cross-radial horizontal resolution led to better tornado warning performance, which are also used for the flash flood benefit model. Similarly, better tornado warning performance reduced casualty rate just like what is hypothesized in the flash flood study. The model was also ran in the contiguous United States (CONUS) weather radar network for which it provided a benefit of $535 million per year, with a remaining benefit pool of $676 million per year.
Hypothesis
The hypothesis for this study is that better weather radar coverage improves flash flood warning performance, which in turn reduces casualties. This can because tested through the benefit model and the results are monetized.
Data and Analysis
In the given chain from weather radar coverage to casualty rate, how the flash flood warning decisions are made were first explained. In the US, flash flood warning decisions mainly rely on the concept of flash flood guidance (FFG). The FFG outputs the rainfall accumulation needed in a certain span of time to cause flash flood in a given area. Weather forecast offices (WFO) use different types of FFG model, but regardless of type, what the forecasters basically look for is the accumulated quantitative precipitation (QPE) to exceed the FFG threshold in a given catchment basin when issuing a flash flood warning. Flash floods occur within 6 hours of the causative event, so when the cause of flash flood is heavy rain, in order for WFO to issue a timely warning, forecasters mostly utilize multi-sensor precipitation estimator (MPE) products for comparison with the FFG thresholds. MPE provides radar, rain gauge, and geostationary satellite data. The dominant MPE contributor is radar QPE while satellite QPE is used to fill the gaps in radar coverage. The warning process therefore primarily depends on the FFG and MPE data. The FFG threshold errors are dependent on FFG type which are specific in each catchment basin. For MPE errors, sources include choice of algorithm, radar calibration and rain gauge density. In this study, they assumed that flash flood warning performance will directly depend on radar coverage even without considering other error sources to simplify the analysis. To yield statistically meaningful results, they relied on large datasets and statistically insignificant variables were excluded. The geographic scope was limited to the contiguous United States (CONUS) where most of the needed data were available.
Data as many as possible were needed but they were still careful to avoid biased results. The primary data source was the US Flash Flood Observation Database by the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH). The analysis period started from 1 October 2007 up to 31 December 2018 and only reports with "heavy rain" causes were included. The storm warning data for the said period was obtained from IOWA Environmental Mesonet NWS Watch/Warning Archive. A warning was considered a hit if any part of the flood polygon was inside the warning polygon; otherwise, it was labeled false alarm.
Another paper that I reviewed/critiqued. Hope you learn something. Thank you. :)
Note: I noticed this was too long and I myself, gets tired before even reading it so I decided to cut it and put it in another narrative as part 2. Btw, yeah I sometimes re-read my entries here that's why. :)
Contingency Plan: Before, During, and After a Flood
**CONTINGENCY PLAN**
What is a Flood?
Floods are natural occurrences where an area or land that is normally dry abruptly becomes submerged in water. It is an overflow of large quantities of water onto a normally dry land due to overflow of streams, rivers, lakes or oceans and as the most common reason, a result of heavy rainfall. Flood is one of the most common natural disasters that happens in the Philippines. It causes millions worth of damages to property, agriculture, in the environment, economy, and it kills thousands of lives of people and animals.
To increase awareness on disaster risk reduction, here is a contingency plan about flood, with the following objectives:
To share information on what to do before, during, and after a flood.
To reduce number of casualties and damages.
To prevent and mitigate further hazards to people, the environment, and economy by planning immediate response and improve recovery strategies.
**BEFORE A FLOOD**
Be alert and be aware of the surroundings.
Ready your supplies (drinking water, ready-to-eat food, cash, clothing and toiletries, flashlight and extra batteries, power banks)
Secure important documents.
Identify places to go/evacuation areas.
Discuss your family disaster plan
Decide for a meeting place if family members get separated.
Assign a contact person to reach if gets separated and make sure everyone has the contact information.
If you have pets, check them and their safety.
Be prepared to evacuate, if ever.
Pray.
**DURING A FLOOD**
Turn off power and unplug all sockets.
Monitor the weather and flood updates in your areas.
Elevate your appliances or furniture into higher areas.
Evacuate to higher ground or go into evacuation areas.
If you have pets, bring them with you.
In case you are being trapped by the flood, call for emergency hotlines.
Do not attempt to cross any river during flood, where water flows fast.
Pray.
**AFTER A FLOOD**
Do not return to your home until further notice by the authorities.
Upon returning to your home, be aware and avoid areas that are still flooded, soils that eroded, fallen power lines and vegetation debris.
Help those who are in need.
Do not enter your house if it’s still flooded. Power outlets might still be submerged or presence of loose and exposed wires.
Kill main power switch before entering your house, check for structural damages such as cracks in the foundation that water seeped in. Consult help to professional authorities to check the structural integrity of your house.
Wear safety equipment such as rubber boots, battery powered flashlight, safety hats, etc. upon entering your house.
Look and repair for possible future hazard such as gas leaks, exposed electrical wires. Check the floors, wall and ceiling for the risk of collapsing.
After everything indicted above is followed and repaired, proceed to cleaning, disinfecting everything that got wet. Waters from flood may contain bacteria and chemicals and may lead to skin problems or illnesses.
Wait several days before turning the main power switch on for it to dry. Some electrical components and power outlets may still contain water that may cause short circuits.
Pray.
This is a contingency plan that I submitted before for a subject and I just want to share this here. Hope this somehow helps. :)
Thank you. ❤️
Part 2: Impact of Urbanization on the Simulation of Extreme Rainfall in Jeddah: A Review
Data and Analysis
A numerical weather prediction with a convection permitting regional atmospheric model was used for the simulation of ten (10) severe weather events. They were simulated based on two simulations. On the event that happened on November 25-26, 2009 the accumulated rainfall was 140mm between 0600 and 1200 UTC. Convection-permitting simulations were performed, particularly using the WRF or Weather Research and Forecast Model. This was used to produce a short-term numerical weather forecast-type simulations of 36-h duration from 1200 UTC of the previous day to 0000 UTC of the following day. The first 12h of the simulation was not included in calculating the total precipation because it was considered the spin-up period. Therefore, they produced ten 36-h of simulations for each event. The physical parameters used in the WRF model include the particle property scheme for microphysics (Morrison and Milbrandt 2015), the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic´ planetary boundary layer scheme (Janjic´ 1994), the RRTMG shortwave and longwave schemes (Iacono et. al. 2008), the Unified Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) (Tewari et. al 2004), and the eta similarity scheme for the surface layer (Janjic´ 2002, 1994; Monin and Obukhov 1954). They also used the urban canopy model within the LSM which was used in the URBAN experiment. The urban scheme was then replaced with the natural land cover for the desert simulation.
The MODIS land-use data of the WRF Model was used in identifying urban grid points, and the urban morphology parameters are specified. Based on the previous studies that used WRF model and the urban parameters, it suggests that the model performs well at simulating urban rainfalls. The simulations are then analyzed to evaluate land coverage effects on precipitation and the nine other cases are added for the assessment. Changes in meteorological conditions at the surface and in the atmosphere with regards to precipitation are explained. Based on the figures shown in the article, it was found out that the model agrees with the actual observations. Focusing on the effects of urbanization in precipitation, it shows that precipitation is greater in the URBAN scheme than in DESERT. The recorded amount of rainfall for DESERT experiment was about 50 to 140mm per day, while in the URBAN, the longest range was 70mm per day indicating a significant increase in rainfall in the urban area.
The area if interest now is the physical mechanisms behind the differences in rainfall pattern in the two experiments. Change in land use was investigated next to find any connections with the said differences in precipitation. It was observed that the sensible and latent heat flux of the two simulations were barely indistinguishable. Given that the planetary boundary layer was deeper even before the rainfall event happen, this deeper PBL intensified atmospheric instability in the urban, compared to the desert. This implies the impact of urbanization, and it was also shown that urban areas have higher surface temperature relative to the desert. The influence of urbanization in the intensification of rainfall due to land use and UCM was about 30% of the total average.
The dynamics behind the effects of urbanization to precipitation was investigated using the vorticity equation to evaluate the terms that contributes to the physical processes. The first term on the right hand side represents the horizontal advection, the second term represents vertical advection, followed by the third term which indicates the divergence acting on vorticity. The fourth term represents tilting of the vertical sheared flow and the last term represents gradients in friction force. The terms for both experiment were calculated hourly based in the simulations. The analysis of different terms in the vorticity equation suggests that the horizontal and vertical advection, and the divergence are the main factors that contribute to the dynamical mechanisms. A moisture analysis was also conducted which showed that additional moisture from the Red Sea provided development for the storm.
Instrumentation
The instruments used in the study were the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model which incorporated the urban canopy model and land surface model. An article was published regarding the implementation and verification of LSM in WRF Model. It was because of the strong interaction of the LSM with the atmosphere at all scales which shows its significance in this model (Tewari et al. 2004) Existing studies about the urban canopy model also shows its effectivity when incorporated in the WRF model (Chen et al. 2011). Results of extensive simulations conducted in previous studies using the same scheme and parameters suggest that the WRF Model performs well when it comes to simulating urban rainfall (Dasari et al. 2017, 2019; Viswanadhapalli et al. 2017; Yesubabu et al. 2016). The Climate Prediction Center (CMORPH) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission were also used in analyzing the spatial distribution of the rainfall events that happened in Jeddah over the past decades. Existing studies about CMORPH shows that this method yields spatially complete precipitation analyses which is a great help for this study (Joyce et al. 2004). Same goes for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. (Huffman et al. 2007). The analyses from the modeling and observational data are therefore in agreement with regards to the increase in intensity of precipitation over Jeddah due to urbanization.
Conclusion and Recommendation
It has been claimed that urbanized surfaces reduce albedo and absorb more incoming solar radiation . This caused increase in heat storage of urban areas. There is daytime cooling and during nighttime, this stored heat are released causing cities like Jeddah to have increased planetary boundary layer height.
The ten heavy rainfall events with the similar synoptic features are studied to analyze the effect of urbanization in Jeddah City's rainfall. The simulations from two experiments suggested to have a 26% increase on rainfall in the urban. Observations from different datasets also indicated increase in rainfall over the city for the past years. The conclusion from this experiments is that the urban area of Jeddah exhibits a nocturnal heat-island effects which leads to a deeper PBL, stronger baroclinicity, and more unstable atmosphere. These factors enhanced convective activities that eventually leads to thunderstorm formation and increase in rainfall.
Thank you :)
Impact of Urbanization on the Simulation of Extreme Rainfall in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia : A Review
Impact of Urbanization on the Simulation of Extreme Rainfall in the City of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Thang M. Luong, Hari P. Dasari, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Summary:
The city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia has experienced massive urbanization over the years and is considered to be a "heat island", characterized by hot climate. However, extreme rainfall events still occur in the city which is primarily caused by mesoscale convective systems and its association with the Red Sea Trough (RST). The orographic features of the region also enhances these convective activities which triggers strong rainfall that often leads to flood damages. In this paper, they studied about the effects of urbanization on the extreme rainfall patterns in Jeddah over the years. They incorporated Urban Canopy Model (UCM) and the natural land cover for two experiments, one in urban scheme, and one with its presettlement and natural state. Ten rainfall events were subjected in the experiment but this paper focused on the event that happened on November 26, 2009 which is one of the most severe weather events that occurred in the city. All ten experiment where chosen as they were all associated with RST. It was concluded that the urban area of Jeddah exhibits a nocturnal heat-island effects which leads to a deeper PBL, stronger baroclinicity, and more unstable atmosphere.
Problem and Statement of Purpose
This research is about the effects of urbanization on the simulation of extreme rainfall events in Jeddah, as the city has been subjected to urbanization for the past decades. It was recognized that urbanized cities absorb more solar energy from the sun and thus, have more sensible heat. Many documented studies have proved that urbanization enhances precipitation in cities around the world. The focus of the study is to evaluate how changes in land cover impact severe thunderstorm events and to explain the physical mechanisms behind them. Before the event happened on November 2009, the intensification of Arabian anti-cyclone provided warm moist air to the region, creating a favorable environment for an extreme weather event. The intrusion of a mid-latitude upper-level trough generated cyclone flow and cold air advection and the intensification of the subtropical jet due to mid-latitude forcing further enhanced upper-level divergence that triggered the event. This resulted in an estimated damage if about $1 Billion and caused 161 fatalities. The objective of the study is to observe how changes in land use affect thunderstorm formation and its physical characteristics.
Review of Related Literature
The impact of urbanization to precipitation has been proved in numerous studies. A study about the precipitation in Tokyo examined how urbanization affects precipitation climatology in the said area. It showed that a robust increase in precipitation in metropolitan area and reduction in inland areas are caused by urbanization. They are characterized by increase in surface sensible heat flux which destabilizes the atmosphere (Kusaka et. al 2019, 2014) A similar study investigated the effect of urban areas on precipitation over the cities of western countries like Indonesia and Malaysia using a convection-permitting model which is also used in this study. It was found out that the presence of these cities enhances precipitation by over 30% which is mainly due to the intensification of diurnal cycle (Argüeso et al. 2016). Another study was conducted about the impact of land cover change in storm events in Sydney, Australia and the results show that the area has influence on the triggering mechanisms of the storm. These are some of the studies which greatly influenced the basic idea of this study, which is the impact of urbanization to precipitation (Gero and Pitman, 2006).
Hypothesis or Research Question
Does the heat island in Jeddah City locally affect the thunderstorms? This was the question of interest in the study, which are testable through these experiments which are simulations of the selected rainfall events occured in the city.
This is just part 1 and I just want to share this here. Hope you learn something. ❤️
Hello :>
Hi. Because of the sudden changes in this platform, I may not be posting articles here anymore. Well, I am really not so active here but I don't know if I will still continue my little journey here. You know, I was contented with my earnings here no matter how small because I used it to load my sim card for my online classes but because of the changes, I'm afraid I might not be able to do, and have that anymore. But I will still try to update here everytime I can. :( Thank you to everyone who have read my articles and supported me through out my 2-month stay in this platform. God bless and stay safe. 💚
Repeat after me
What's your favorite thing about Earth?
If it's my old self answering this question, I might say it's a handkerchief or a particular shirt that has a sentimental value to me, or any tangible thing one could imagine. Maybe I'll answer it that it's memories, a person, my family or friends, or maybe words a certain person has said to me. But I'm not my old self anymore. My favorite thing about Earth is no longer the material things I have, the memories I hold, or the persons in my life whom I cherished the most. There is a difference between things or people that you love the most, and those things that you always choose to choose that's why it's your favorite. I'm not saying I'm no longer affectionate of the things that I mentioned, but I decided to separate those that I love, with those that I now chose to choose. And yes, I'm now choosing myself. My favorite about thing about Earth is now myself, my existence. I have come to realize that just the fact that I am living in this world is worth a bunch of happiness. I am now learning to be happy with my existence and not be dependent on other people for it. I have decided to choose and prioritize myself over other people who wouldn't even do the same for me. I am finally learning to say no to things and people that can cause me my peace. I used to care for other people's comfort over mine, only to get hurt in the end. But it's me this time. I am now choosing not to allow myself be eaten by my own demons. I am choosing to be alive. I will no longer let myself be taken for granted because I now have reasons to love myself again and I'm finally starting to know my worth. It's me this time. I am choosing to be me. I am choosing me. I am my most favorite. And I don't want to, am not, and won't, be sorry for it.
How about you, what's your favorite thing about Earth? Why not yourself?
Hi! This is my entry for @Charlotte's first contest, which is to answer the question: "What's your favorite thing about Earth?"
Check it out! Here is the link:
https://read.cash/@Charlotte/charlottes-first-contest-4e5cd66e
Thanks for reading my entry, see you there! ❤️
I finally have points now. But it's only 2.6 :< It's not that I am complaining, but after all the articles I published, I think I deserve more. charot na half hindi huhu
I finally have points now. But it's only 2.6 :< It's not that I am complaining, but after all the articles I published, I think I deserve more. charot na half hindi huhu
I've been publishing articles for days but still I got no points, as in zero. Anyone with the same situation as mine? Or it's just me? ☹️
0 pa din points ko kahit nagpo-post naman ako ng articles for the past days. at nakikipag-interact rin naman ako sa ibang users. why😭
Juvenile Delinquency Prevention: My Two Cents
In preventing juvenile delinquency, the whole community is responsible. The responsibility must not only be shared by the family or the school, but also the media and local sectors as well. But I believe, the family has the greatest role in juvenile delinquency prevention. It is the smallest unit of the community but it has major roles when it comes to the welfare of the children. The family members especially the parents, must shape and influence their children's character, values, and discipline for them to prevent having delinquent behaviors. They must develop a sense of security in their children so they can be transparent with everything they do. Trust must be build upon the members so the children can be more comfortable and confident with themselves. Home must be a child's safe haven. It is also important to teach them what is morally right or wrong, and the sense of respect, fairness, and responsibility. We must always remember that parents are a child's first teachers. Modeling right behaviors and values have a long lasting effect on them. Children must also be taught how it is to have empathy and compassion for others so they may always have it in them as they grow up. Schools also play significant role in child delinquency prevention. They must always have a child-friendly environment and should cater children's needs outside home such as security. Teachers also have their share in teaching the children the right values and discipline in a kind manner. The role of media is vital in promoting child rights by conveying messages in a right approach. Any inappropriate portrayal and publicity of a juvenile delinquency case is considered to be a violation of the child's rights, according to Section 14, RA 9344 or the Juvenile Justice and Welfare Act of 2006. Also, the local government must be the first to employ programs for the protection of children and in implementing rules and regulations to prevent juvenile delinquency. Every community members play a role when it comes to this kinds of issues in our society. We are the children's role models, so we should always be a good example to them. These community sectors shall unite and be hand in hand when it comes to prevention of juvenile delinquency. It is not a responsibility of just one sector, but the community as a whole.
A friend of mine asked for my help to write this essay so I thought of sharing it here because it's a relevant topic to talk about.
How about you? What's your thoughts about juvenile delinquency?
Thanks for reading! Have a good day ahead ❤️
Pen
I want to write about
how beautiful you are
how your eyes smile
when your lips curve
I want to write about
how I see the universe
whenever you smile
How my heart melts
whenever you glance at me
for even dot of a second
I want to write about
how gorgeous you are
I want to write about YOU
You are a masterpiece to write about
But my own pens are running out of ink
I can only write
How much I want to write about you,
how much I want to do it–
But I can't write about you
That one pen is just not for me
Someone already has it
It has so many 'you', 'I', 'write', and 'about' 🤧
I think I wrote this one when I liked a varsity player from another university when I was first year college student. Hahahaha. These poems are unedited, I just really did copy and paste it from my phone so please do understand. But I'm open for suggestions and kind criticisms. Thank you! 🤗
You may like, comment, and subscribe!(youtuber ka ghorl??? hahahaha) Thank you ❤️
X
I've been hurt a lot of times
but I never lost faith in love
I've been taken for granted
but I still believe in its magic
My heart's been broken into pieces
but I still kept on believing
But—
I just witnessed
A relationship I look up to
Crumble into pieces
I had lost the reason why
I held on to the idea
that love is still magical
There's no greater pain
than watching someone
so dear to you fall apart.
Hello! I just found some poems– again, that I didn't know I've been keeping on my phone for the past years. HAHAHA. I remember I wrote this one when my eldest sister and her boyfriend– now ex, broke up last 2018. I literally witnessed their love story so I was also heartbroken that time but it's all in the past now. Everyone has moved on.
I will be posting some more poems that I found after this. Thanks for reading!
You may like, comment, and subscribe! Thank you ❤️
the value of your i love you
I'm a shy type of a person. When I was still a little girl, I always hide in our room when we have visitors in our house, even when it's my uncles and aunts visiting. On my elementary days every Valentine's Day, there was never a year that I don't make a Valentine's card for my parents, as it was part of the school's celebration. But the funny thing is, I've never gave or read it to them, not even once. Why? Because I'm that shy. I am not good at expressing my affection, even to my parents and siblings. It's so ironic how clingy I was as a daughter but I don't say what i feel directly. I just show it. But that changed when I reached high school. Something happened so my father can't be with us for a long time. And that's when I realized that I should've said "I love you" to my parents so many times in person when I still had the chance. Because when there are times that I want him to hear me say I love you, I can't. So now, I always say I love you to my mother. I hug her tight when I have the chance to, and I always make her feel how thankful I am to be her daughter. And every time she says I love you back, I am so happy. But you know what? Everytime they receive your "I love you", they are the happiest. No I love you is better than those your parents receive from you. That's the value of your I love you.
I focused on love between children and parents in my article, but love is universal. Be kind 😊❤️
Also, I'm not in a situation where I can freely say i love you to my Papa, pls understand :) But I love him to death and he knows that ❤️
Thanks for reading! Spread love ❤️❤️❤️
Why I love EXO
Hi! As I've stated in one of my previous articles, the very first kpop group that I've fallen in love with is EXO. ❤️ I've been their fan since 2014 and I also was influenced by my friends and classmates that time. I just want to share my journey as an EXO-L (their fandom name) and why I love them. I hope you enjoy this one. 🤗
My love for kpop really started when I was on Grade 9 because almost half of my class were fans. I enjoyed watching different music videos with them and that's where it all started. I've watched different groups but only a specific group caught my attention that time, and that is EXO. It was their song Growl that made me into them. I would be honest since I am a teenager that time, I liked them for their looks aside from their songs and powerful vocals. But as time passed by, it was greater than that. I've found comfort in being a fan girl and it was something fulfilling. They became my inspiration in my studies because as Kai (one of EXO members) once said, "Don't ever think of liking me if you're not good in studying." And that's one of the things I like the most about them. They love their fans so much, they care for them and they want their fans to prioritize studying over being their fan.
But as people say, it's not always rainbows and butterflies. You can also be heart broken because of being a fan. That's what happened to me when news broke that one of the members were leaving. I don't want to believe as it was so sudden. And I thought the pain ends there but no, in just a year another two members left leaving the group with 9. I cried so much. I loved all of them and it's just so heartbreaking seeing them incomplete. The fear for the thought that they might fully disband was there, and it's really painful. And on my 11th grade, my friends and co-fandoms took a different track and I felt I have no one to share my "fangirling" joys and sorrows. I took a break. They were always in my heart, always, but I felt I really need a break. That lasted for two long years. I don't know that time if I can still be back because I still hasn't moved on from the fact that the group I loved so much isn't complete anymore. During that long break, many painful things happened. I can say that along those two years were so far the darkest parts of my life. But on 2018, I'm already college, moving on with my life in a new city, my self finally found it's way back to being a fan. I'm back to being an EXO-L, and I became a baby Army as well. It was more fulfilling than ever. They were one of my life support and life saver, aside from my friends. They give me happiness I know I can never find in other things. Being a fan was one of the best things that ever happened to me. And from all the things I admire about EXO, what I love the most is the fact that despite everything that happened to me, they show me that my heart is still there and I can still love, so unconditionally. ❤️
Hello, I just want to share it here because I'm missing them so much. 😭 Some of the members were in mandatory military service and the other one was in China ☹️
I'm waiting for their comeback as a group, soon.
Thank you for reading! 💓
F U R B A B Y 🐕🐾
Hello everyone! I want you to meet the youngest member of our family, Basty! 🐾 I gave him that name and he's been with us for almost 3 years now. 🤗 He's half golden retriever and half chow chow. He's so clingy and playful. He destroys everything that he can– our shoes, slippers, our TV remote control, even my earphones. My current pair of earphones is the fourth one already and all the previous ones was destroyed by him. 😭 But despite all that, we love him very much and we treat him as a member of our family. He gives us so much joy and that alone is irreplaceable. ❤️
Thank you! I hope you enjoyed as much I did sharing them 💓
Have a nice day! 😊
Hello. :) I was busy with school works and I got sick for a few days. Hope I can post more articles so soon. 😌
Good night. xoxo
Struggle
Yes, that's how it feels
But my dream is the real deal
The struggle is real
A haiku because I just finished a quiz!! 🙌
Struggle is real talaga mga bhie, pero laban lang.
To fellow students like me who are taking their online class, fighting!! 💕
Thanks for reading. God bless you! 💓
For Her
I always love her
My greatest blessing, she is
Yes, my super mom.
A haiku dedicated for my mother because I miss her so much ❤️ She can't come home for some reasons, and because of the pandemic too.
If your mother's beside you everyday, taking care of you, cooks food for you, wakes you up in the morning, and scolds you for your shortcomings– you are lucky, I guess. :)
Thanks for reading :)
Childhood Memories pt. 2
It is common for parents to read a book such as fairy tales, or tell a story to their children before they go to sleep. But my childhood memory was different. Different in a sense that, it's not some fancy stories or fairy tales my father has told me back then. When I was on Grade 2, my father tells me two stories every night to make me sleep: about his experience during a strong typhoon when he was young, and his hilarious yet scary experience with his grandmother.
I can't remember how old he was when it happened and what typhoon it was, but my father told me that it was one of the strongest to hit our region that time. Their house was damaged and him and his siblings swam in the middle of the flood to survive, until they can't hold each other's hands anymore. They got separated. He even told me he had to hug a coconut tree just not to be swept away by the flood. Luckily, they all survived that disaster but I can say that it was one of the most traumatic experiences my father had gone through.
Another story, and this one is my favorite, is his experience with my great grandmother. She was a traditional midwife in their place. One night, she was called to give birth to a mother. My father accompanied his grandma because it was in the middle of the night, she can't come alone. There was no electricity and no transportation available that time because their house is in the hills so they had to walk. All they had was a small lamp that serves as their light in the vast darkness of the forest. It was a success, the mother finally gave birth to her beloved baby. On their way home though, they suddenly realized that they had been going through the same path repeatedly. They will walk through large trees, and cross a river again and again. They were getting nowhere and they're exhausted. They even took off their clothes and wore it inside out (it's a myth that you have to wear your clothes inside out if you are lost) because they think they are being lost. Until my father saw a ball of fire floating in the air from afar. Thinking that it was someone, and it will take them to the right path, they followed the fire. But yet again, they still walked the same path over and over again, with the trees and the same river. His grandmother then told him that they shall rest beside a tree because it's already past midnight. When morning came and they woke up, they were horrified at the sight in front of them. Because from the tree where they were lying, is their house just a few distance away.
I don't exactly remember why of all stories, he told me those. But I remember requesting it from him every night after the first time I heard it. Maybe I just really liked his stories, or him reading one to me. And I still do :)
There really is a time where we look back to our childhood memories and miss it, and the people we are with during that time. Good old days. ❤️
Thanks for reading! :)
Childhood Memories
I think I was four or five years old then. I was with my mother and we went to a public market in our town to buy groceries, vegetables and other necessities in our home. As a little girl, my mother holds my hand as we walk. I remembered passing by a small store of toys and as a kid, I checked it out and I kept on looking for toys when I suddenly realized my mother is not by my side anymore. I panicked and kept looking around. I was already crying and I can feel my fear eating me up. I walked around looking for her while crying loudly when suddenly, someone grabs me by my hand and when I looked who it was, I felt so so relieved because it was my mother. Panic and relief was also evident in her eyes. When I asked her where she went, she said she thought I was walking behind her and when she realized I was missing and went back to the store, I was no longer there. I can never forget that experience because I think that's when my fear of being away from my mother at public places started. 😂
I also had this experience in jeepneys when waiting for it to be fully-loaded with passengers, my mother forgot to buy something so she had to left me inside the jeepney. I didn't expect the jeepney to be full so quickly, so the driver started the jeepney right away. I am so nervous that time that I can't even open my mouth to tell him that my mother is still outside! I was about to cry when the vehicle started to drift away from where it's parked then my mother suddenly showed up saying that she's a passenger and her daughter is inside. 😂 I was scolded by her when we got home because she said I'm big enough to tell the driver that my mother is still out buying something.
Hahahahaha. Memories. ❤️ Share ko lang po! 😂
Random Photos ❤️
Hello, everyone! I just want to share some photographs I took months ago because they are so pleasing to the eyes 😍 I saw them on the rooftop of our apartment. 😆
Here they are! 🤗
That's all! Hahaha. I think they are White Periwinkles 🌼🌼 (pls correct me if I'm wrong).
Pretty, right?
Thank you! I hope you enjoyed viewing this as much as I did capturing them 🤗
@glossyberrycraze
