I was thinking that if I really make the effort to study cryptocurrency about a decade ago then I should have done better today. But of course, I can never foresee what is about happen a decade later. Just imagine the regret of the one who bought pizza using 10,000 BTC. So, even an early believer like that person dumped a huge amount of BTC for $30 worth of food.
It only shows that the faith for BTC to be accepted as payment is very very low in comparison to what is happening today. As more and more believers take crypto as payment or store of value similar to a Fiat currency or gold then its worth will increase as well.
About 4 years ago I was talking to my ex-office mate about BTC and the first argument that he told me is that it's a scam, it's not a commodity and it's not backed by anything. I did not argue anything in return because based on what he said, he has no faith in the technology and he doesn't believe that it has substantial value. It's not easy to convince people who seemed to have inherent disbelief about something that I wanted to talk about. Also, the bad publicity about BTC is still fresh in his memory. And so I moved on.
Currently, there are more than 7800 cryptocurrencies in existence that's listed in Coinmarketcap and we can only assume that it's growing as we speak. That is a ton of cryptos out there aiming for adoption among crypto enthusiasts.
How many of that will sustain and potentially get close to what BTC & ETH have achieved so far? Maybe 10 of them or it could be 100? It's hard to tell.
For me, I try to gauge a project's proposition to my own expectations. And if it's compelling enough to invest my time & resources in a crypto project then I will definitely do so until I lose the motivation or I reached my expected profit from it.
In my opinion, the best way to gauge a crypto project is to learn more about it. Who is the team behind the development? Do they have the credibility to deliver the proposition that was mentioned in the whitepaper and or the road map?
Take the time to research for a reference about the leader of the team and its members.
Study the proposition that they are presenting and check if it is backed by substantial data. And most importantly, analyze if the proposition is geared for adoption, or does the team behind it even think about it? Make sure that they are taking actions based on the roadmap that they present.
That is the beauty of open-source development, the data is out there and it is for everyone to see. You just have to find a way to understand and analyze the things that are happening & developing.
Another good thing about the current crypto projects is that they are reachable. There are public chats hosted in Discord, Telegram, or whatnot where you can on and participate in the discussion to learn more about the project and its progress.
You will be surprised how accommodating they are.
Lastly, it is not wise to presume on things without making an effort to research and investigate the proposition & issues about the project. And based on what you get from your research, analyze if the crypto project has an intrinsic value on top of it. And if you feel compelled to invest your time & resources in it then make a leap of faith to take the long view.
Developing something that will disrupt a huge industry or an economy takes time, resources, and dedication to pull-off. But when it does, it is usually fruitful and rewarding.