Today I was surprised by the news that in my country three people die for one child born.
The low birth rate, as well as the high migration rate from my country, has two causes:
* financially and
* political insecurity, corruption.
Every year, the world's population increases by 83 million people. There are currently about 7.6 billion people in the world. By 2050, the world's population will be just under 10 billion.
However, the trends in terms of these figures are extremely uneven - the population in some countries is increasing rapidly and in some it is decreasing.
No matter in which direction these trends go, they present a special challenge for the authorities in each country. Countries with declining populations need to think about how to ensure a livelihood for the elderly population when the number of young employed workers who pay contributions to state funds is declining. Countries with a growing young population need to address issues such as ensuring their education and health care.
There are three main factors that affect the population. The basic and main is the birth rate, followed by mortality and then migration.
Below are some of the key facts about the world population, taken from the latest UN documents that deal with forecasting future world population movements.
By 2024, India will be the most populous country in the world and will overtake China
China currently has a population of 1.4 billion, followed by India with 1.3 billion. The population of these two countries makes up 37% of the world's population.
Nigeria is currently ranked 7th on the list of most populous countries, but before 2050 it will come in third and thus overtake the US.
Total population:
1. China - 1,397,029,000
2. India - 1,309,054,000
3. United States - 319,929,000
4. Indonesia - 258,162,000
5. Brazil - 205,962,000
6. Pakistan - 189,381,000
7. Nigeria - 181,182,000
8. Bangladesh - 161,201,000
9. Russian Federation - 143,888,000
10. Japan - 127,975,000
Since the 1960s, the global birth rate has been declining and currently on average each woman gives birth to 2.5 children. However, behind this average are very different figures: in Africa the average is 4.7, and in Europe it is 1.6.
From 2017 to 2050, the largest population growth will be recorded in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Uganda and Indonesia. This means that the population of Africa will approximately double by 2050.
When the birth rate falls below 2.1 children, it is considered to be a level that “cannot provide replacement”. This means that not enough children are being born who will be able to replace the parent population. This is the situation we already have in Europe.
Between 2010 and 2015, 46% of the world’s population lived in 83 countries where the birth rate was below the 2.1 child threshold.
An increasing number of people are reaching old age. In the 1950s, the percentage of the world’s younger population was higher than the percentage of the older population. In 2017, it was recorded that the percentage of the younger population is declining and that the percentage of the older population is increasing. By 2050, these percentages will equalize.
In general, life expectancy has increased. Globally, life expectancy has increased by almost four years, from 67 to 71 years. These data refer to the period between 2000 and 2015.
Life expectancy is projected to be 77 years from 2045 to 2050, and life expectancy is expected to be 83 years from 2095 to 2100.
Between 2010 and 2015, life expectancy in Africa was 60 years, compared to 79 years in North America. But life expectancy in Africa is growing faster than in Europe, so by 2050 this gap is expected to narrow significantly.
According to data from 2017, 60% of the African population is younger than 25, and only 5% are 60 or older. In Europe, only a quarter of the population is under 25 years old. The second quarter are residents aged 60 or older.
Between 1950 and 2015, the number of immigrants in the countries of Europe, North America and Oceania was higher than the number of emigrants.
In the same period, the number of emigrants in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean was higher than the number of immigrants.
Between 2005 and 2010, the migration rate peaked at 4.5 million people a year, moving between major regions of the world. The migration rate in the period from 2010 to 2015 was 3.2 million.
For countries with low birth rates, migration is the only way to prevent population decline.
Understanding each country’s demographics is key to achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, says John Wilmoth, director of the Population
Division at the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
These goals include reducing the poverty rate, reducing hunger and inequality in the world.
By tracking demographic trends, governments can implement appropriate policies and various initiatives to overcome the challenges they face.