Macro technical analysis.

I think that the whole market has been in a long-term bull trend that has not been confirmed yet, and will only confirm once all-time-highs are reached again, but by that time you would had mess up many of the good opportunities that the bear market offers the risk is always that price may always go lower than what you bought, but that is the risk traders must take to get a chance in making money in the markets.

The Dow Jones.

The Dow Jones has been on a long-term bullish term mark at the bottom of the chart with a green line, the long-term bearish trend has been marked in red, at first that line serves as resistance but in the last months you will notice it has been used as support. The blue line is the next bear trend resistance but is not as important as the red and green lines.

The green and red big lines should serve as support if the price must collapse thanks to either more Federal Reserve hikes, and the blue line should be broken once the Fed stops increasing rates and instead goes flat. I think the previous high won't be reached again at least until the risk cut comes online from the Fed. Once price actions reach ATH levels again at that point it will be worth doing another market analysis to see if the price action will continue the bull trend or if it will be a double top.

The market is pricing in another hike by June 15 of another 0.25%, if it comes to that level and not higher, the green tich line should work as support if the price must go down, the red line could also play a role, but in two meetings probably rates will be flat, and that could finally put the price action above the blue line.

Now assuming inflation stays under control the market looks bullish, but not enough to make higher highs just enough to use current support areas. If that changes you can bet the green line won't support the price action and may drive us to a deeper decline indicating a possible recession.

Bitcoin.
As long as inflation continues to go down Bitcoin can try to go higher but it will also mean that the Fed needs to continue increasing rates, for more than one time after June. A price collapse is possible if inflation is not under control and the Fed must continue hiking.

Bitcoin could work as a hedge against inflation the problem is that if the Fed continues to increase rates it will create a recession to try to cut inflation down, and that will mean people will lose jobs and as such won't have money to buy any assets and as such Bitcoin could go down in price if inflation is not placed under control.

In the long term, Bitcoin has found a bottom marked in green at the bottom of the chart, and those could only be broken if market conditions change because of inflation and the Federal Reserve's decisions to increase or decrease rates. If inflation stops going down and the Fed must increase rates to the level to bring a recession you can bet the lowest green line could be reached even if the Bitcoin narrative is a hedge against inflation. Note that if the Fed must increase rates by another 1% that will mean we are in a recession and not just inflation so the market will be different than today something that many could fail to see.

In the short term, the market is expecting just another 0.25% hike rate and after that just a flat chart. And the markets are expecting that inflation continues to go down and even lower than 4.9%. If that continues you could assume that the blue line will be broken together with the yellow one and be used as support once inflation continues to go down even if the fed goes flat. If that is not the reality within the next two months you could assume previous lows will be hit again, and probably go to the first long-term bullish line in green and retest it again.

Conclusion.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are correlated with the stock market at the moment because traders from normal markets are now trading cryptocurrencies too and they are bringing their practices to the cryptocurrency market. That could change in the future but at the moment that is a reality.

The Fed's interest decision will continue to affect all markets and the Fed will try to put inflation back in the bottle and that means all market participants must continue to observe what the Fed does at least until they decide to go and print again.