Here is a possible clue for when Bitcoin Cash could take over Bitcoin Core.

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Avatar for francis105d1
1 year ago

You can be right about Bitcoin Cash being the real Bitcoin, but you can be wrong in its timing and, as such, lose a lot of money in the process. When I say that Bitcoin Cash will take over Bitcoin Core BTC, I mean that BCH will have more acquiring power against any other asset, either fiat currency or Bitcoin Core itself, but it won't happen without pain.

Many Bitcoin Cash users know and understand that Bitocin Cash has meager transaction fees and that it will be possible to reduce that fee by going sub satoshi to minimize the total transaction cost. Yet, Bitcoin Cash has lost over 95% over Bitcoin Core. You may think price doesn't matter, but it does because if you want to be right in this world, you must dominate. So far, Bitcoin Cash has not been doing that. Anyone who went long on Bitcoin Cash has lost money, and anyone who bought BCH has lost money. You would have been better off just holding Bitcoin Core and exchanging your BCH for BTC. That has been true since the first day Bitcoin Core forked from the real Bitcoin BCH.

You can be correct that Bitocin Cash BCH is a better version of Bitcoin than Bitcoin Core BTC, but the market has not agreed with you. In order words, you have been right. Just your timing has been off by all when it comes to buying and holding BCH against BTC.

The whole cryptocurrency market is a new market that is only about 12 years old, and few people know about it. There are almost 8 billion human beings, and not every human has the opportunity to buy and hold cryptocurrencies, not even the first crypto, let alone all the other cryptos. The crypto industry is young, newcomers will be attracted to well-known scams, but eventually, people will learn and move on to the actual projects.

Many people recognize Bitcoin Core as the real Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash as a fork of Bitcoin when things are the other way around. So those that hold Bitcoin benefit from that narrative, but eventually, more and more users will flock to cryptocurrency. They, the worldwide citizen, will try to use them to escape whatever crisis they are fleeing, and that is when citizens of a collapsing country could discover that what they think is Bitcoin doesn't work. They will seek answers. That is precisely when the Bitcoin Core BTC narrative will flip on its head and will be the starting of the end for that coin and the beginning for Bitcoin Cash.

People won't move into cryptocurrencies because they want to gamble their money away. Many will do it to preserve their wealth because their local fiat currency is losing value against tangible assets. Suppose users, people, and citizens can't afford to pay for the goods and services, nor will they be able to pay for transaction fees in an inflation or hyperinflation situation. Many users will discover that Bitcoin can't be used as a currency in times of crisis. All of the users coming in mean higher and ever transaction fees, and by utilizing lightning network bank accounts, they put their money at risk not just from government confiscation but those same bank services.

Unfortunately, many will lose their funds to bank accounts like the Wallet of Satoshi and Chivo bank accounts to the creators of those services. The people who run those services will give your coins to the government. The government will demand data and seizure capabilities from those same application administrators data and seizure capabilities. The government can force a court order or whatever other tool the government has or creates to confiscate users' funds with those third parties.

Only at that moment will people realize that they need a Bitcoin that works and doesn't rely on third-party bank account services, but you don't get any happier because that also means that in the meantime, Bitcoin Cash can go as low as 0.00001 BTC in price.

Conclusion.

Bitcoin cash will not be recognized as the real bitcoin as long as people don't realize the issue of high transaction fees. People will only realize lightning network is just banking system 2.0 when their money is unavailable or is seized. Until then, BCH holders must continue the mission to spread the news about BCH and keep the price up for as long as possible. I believe the signal will be once $50 or more transaction fees come to Bitcoin Core. I think that will be when people will realize the lies behind BTC once it hurts to move BTC around.

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1 year ago

Comments

Yeah, I totally agree with you on this. Thanks for the information on this article it's really helpful and relevant.

$ 0.01
1 year ago

We already had $50 fees on BTC. Not steady, so it might still help when that happens.

I agree BTC will probably remain a good gamble (aka "investment") until BCH or a fork of BCH becomes very popular. I think this can be accomplished by developing the ability to scale the main-chain coin for massive world-wide adoption and then going viral. We can't and will not achieve "viral" and organic adoption growth until we have that ability to scale. We will not achieve the dream of Bitcoin until we can do that.

My premise is that if we build it they can come. Until we do, they will not come (because they know it is impossible). Promising to solve the scaling issue later is what BTC did. Many fell for that back in the day. Now important adoption players will not trust so easily.

I do not believe slow steady adoption growth will lead to fulfillment of the dream of Bitcoin. IMO, our P2P-cash use-case will be filled by something else before that works. If I am right, we must grow fast pretty soon.

$ 0.03
1 year ago

I can't wait to see this possible clues coming to reality, I really hope it should happen soon.

$ 0.01
1 year ago