The Future of Publishing:Experts Share Their Predictions

Ahalf-millennium. That’s how long books have been going strong.

When the Kindle was introduced in 2007, the publishing industry “began a multi-year panic over predictions that the digital book would replace ink on paper,” according to David Crumm, Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief at Front Edge Publishing.

Those predictions ended up being quite wrong.

Crumm goes on to underscore the point, “Twelve years later, digital sales have receded even as book sales are stronger than ever.” E-book sales have settled at a respectable 20% of the market.

Kevin Atticks, Director at Apprentice House Press, agrees that books have staying power but also suggests that technological changes will reshape production processes. “Books will still be around in 40 years, but how they are produced, the materials used to print, and the modes of delivery will all change,” says Atticks.

Many of those anticipated changes will be driven by publishers looking to better serve the changing desires and demands of customers, as well as respond to evolving distribution and delivery models. Atticks believes that technology will enable this effort among publishers.

As a leader in the publishing industry, Crumm suggests that “the future belongs to authors with compelling stories as well as useful and inspiring nonfiction that will keep readers coming back for more.” Crumm’s prediction and the data behind it seem to suggest that while the publishing industry has certainly evolved, it also remains the same in some important ways.

Below we share and discuss predictions from industry experts about where the publishing is headed over the next 30 years.

Key predictions from publishing industry experts.

Publishing goes Moneyball

The tech industry is setting the pace for the publishing industry.

According to Jessie Glenn, Director at Mindbuck Media Book Publicity, publishers will get much more sophisticated with how they make their acquisitions. In the future, according to Glenn, since they’ll rely on “complex data points rather than guessing, publishers will attempt to bring Moneyball into publishing.”

Digging into the analytics of what makes a book popular is the next level of work for publishers. Glenn predicts that “agents will respond by trying to anticipate data point sets and Amazon will likely lead on this trend, followed by the big five publishing imprints.”

Next stop: data-driven publishing.

More selective publishing routes

Rick Lite, CMO of Stress Free Book Marketing, is already seeing one major change.

“With printing costs on the rise and reseller commissions decreasing, authors are looking for other marketing avenues,” says Lite. He sees authors moving away from book writing and publishing as a way to promote their message and build credibility. According to Lite, authors are “looking for other platforms to promote and reach their followers.”

As the cost to publish and market a book rises, authors and publisers will grow more selective about what gets published and how revenue is pursued for book projects. A big player in this is Amazon, which continually drives down the retail prices of books and has forced authors and publishers to reduce eBook prices if they find a competitor selling at a lower price.