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Diamond Plans

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Avatar for dansontela
Written by   26
8 months ago

The obvious expectation is that we are heading for quite a severe bear market in all economies except banking, but for some reason, this makes me a bit cautious - because every time the global consensus says "this is what will happen" it ends up being quite different in reality.

Of course, the tech stock fall is to be expected, as they have been massively inflated over the last two years due to Covid and now, those early investors are looking to dump, buy back low and benefit from the next bull market.

Aren't we all?

But, when will the next bull arrive?

The thing is, that regardless of what people say, no one really knows because there are so many factors in play. However, when there are millions of people taking guessing, it is also pretty obvious that a large number of them are going to be correct or close enough. Once they are, they spout themselves as knowledgeable and people listen, until they are wrong - and then they select the next guru out of the thousands who guessed the next signal correctly and the cycle repeats.

So, who to listen to?

TIP: Not me.

It isn't easy and if you are listening to anyone out there, have you acted upon what you have heard, because most do not. For example, You if you look at the majority of large holders on Hive, what you will find is that almost uniformly, they are holders in general, meaning that while they do likely trade, they are looking for more stability where they don't have to trade for gain, for example in DeFi yield pools, or in HIVE POWER etc.

The fact is, trading takes a hell of a lot of time and consistency, and there is a fair amount of risk considering the reward. So, those who have a fair amount already, aren't going to spend that much of their time trading, when they can instead earn with more stability and certainty, even if the percentages are very low. However, "low percentage" doesn't mean it is actually that low with respect to other investment returns, so it is all relative.

While there are always opportunities, personally I don't have the mental, physical or emotional bandwidth to constantly trade, so instead I find ways to earn without trading, for example through curation or creating content. This way, my mind and body isn't constantly under the pressure to perform or lose. For example, even if the prices fall 20% right now, I haven't lost anything, because I am not selling anything and until I do, all the value is theoretical.

But, while these little trickles here and there might be relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of my daily life, in the and scheme of crypto future, they are likely going to add up and amount to something significant. And when things change, that change in volume is going to matter.

But when?

It doesn't matter. Well, at least not right now, but be warned that when things move, they can move upward very, very quickly and when they do, many people are going to be caught unawares, even though they have been hoping for that upward movement. All the people who say "I will stack at the bottom" tend not to, because the bottom is never bottom enough, because what if it goes just that little bit further down. There is a greed in there somewhere, isn't there?

It is the same with selling the top of course.

I am nowhere near where I want to be with my crypto holdings yet, but if there is a bull market today, I would be pretty comfortable for as long as it lasted at least. But, I can't just be okay in the bulls, I need to be okay in the bears too and this is something that I feel I am still not prepared enough for, especially considering that the entire economy is likely imploding and inflation is going to well outstrip my wage growth.

Still, I count myself relatively lucky that I have been able to position myself in a way that I have been able to keep increasing my token amount, even if the value of that amount keeps falling. I think that come the bull, I will be glad that I didn't panic sell, but at the same time - I should have sold more when the opportunity arose.

Selling is still an issue for me.

Selling anything really.

I like to own, I like to stake, I like to see holdings going up. And, since my plan is to eventually live 100% in crypto, this is the pathway I need to take, but sometimes I think I am a little to early to have this mindset.

While all indications are that we are headed for a recessive bear market globally, I think that there is still some opportunity for surprise in the markets, especially since there is so much loss and volatility being blamed on the circumstances of war in Ukraine surrounding supply chain and availability. These conditions tend to change quickly and, they nearly always benefit the investors and average people wear the costs - which I don't think is a coincidence.

So, for me at least, I wouldn't be surprised if this "deep, long and drawn-out" bear market is surprisingly shallow and short, before the upward momentum swings back into the big coins and then trickles across the many alts to fire the markets up again.

What is shallow?

Well, rather than think about what the bottom might be, why not think about the top? If for example you think Bitcoin is going to be worth 100K in two years, what are you willing to pay for it now? Is 30K a bargain? Too expensive? If you are waiting for 20K, will it ever come and is 3.5x in two years not good enough for you?

If you already have holdings and BTC is going to be 100K in two years - what are you willing to sell at today?

It is worth thinking about. Bull or Bear.

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Avatar for dansontela
Written by   26
8 months ago
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