Bitcoin has moved in a very characteristic way since my last study, making a zigzag movement and forming a figure that by default points to the continuity of the trend, with that we have that the consolidation of bitcoin is close to resolving, along with mine I bring a brief update on market sentiment.
Starting my analysis on the weekly, note that in the last three (or four, depends on how you analyze) weeks the price has been hitting between the 0.5 and 0.618 region of the first impulsive wave of bitcoin started in 2018, all attempts to break both for up and down resulted in a rejection. For this reason alone, it is already possible to know that both the zone below 8500 has a very high number of stops from traders who project the continuity of the rise and the zone above 9770 likewise has an enormous amount of stop orders from traders who bet on a correction before the main trend returns, causing the first break with conviction to dictate the next stop in the market. It is also possible to note that the zone between 0.618 and 0.65 has been very strong price resistance zones, having been rejected twice after the month of September 2019, these rejections have also caused huge price dumps.
Dropping to the daily chart and analyzing other indicators we have to look from the date of March 8, we have the zigzag price testing the two support and resistance zones mentioned in the weekly chart that formed a symmetrical triangle, this technical triangle is confirmed when we look at the volume and see a constant drop in its formation, since it is a figure of continuation of trend, the possibility of breaking positively and continuing to rise is greater than the reverse; the relative strength index has been dropping with the formation of the triangle while the stochastics had the necessary breath to dive in the zone below 30, usually when this happens it is natural to expect the price to react positively, along with all this we have the MACD showing clear exhaustion of the selling force passing the turn to the bulls to act, if that happens we will see the price breaking the $ 9770 resistance and if it is not a bulltrap and the price also breaking the $ 10,114 region there is a very strong possibility of a positive variation of 12% in the price to the next resistance zone.
Here we have the fear and greed index, it shows whether people are optimistic or not about the future of bitcoin, generally the market sentiment affects the price in the opposite direction to the herd trend, in the case when people are very optimistic about the the price tends to fall and when they are pessimistic the price tends to rise. Taking the period of the last three months we can see this clearly, before March 11 (drop to $ 4000) the feeling was neutral and after that event the feeling fell drastically causing a panic in the market, it is obvious that after such a fall there would be a retraction even if temporary recovering part of the fall, note that the sentiment remained in a panic for a long time, time needed for bitcoin to rise more than 100% and now the feeling of optimism is gradually rising again, even if still undecided is another possible sign that the whales are preparing a next move.
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