The Ballad of Bitcoin's Fall
When the bear run started last year, I thought for sure bitcoin would fall to $20,000. It didn’t. It fell to $35,000 and stopped, hovered in that neighborhood for a while. At one point, it bounced up to $47,000 before falling again. Since then, it’s been steadily declining, with two precipitous drops.
The first drop was in early May. You can see it in the above chart. On the right where it turns from green to red. Here’s a closer view.
You can see how, on May 5, it fell from $39,000 to $36,000 in a few short hours. One week later, it was at $26,000. A pretty sharp fall in such a short time.
The second drop happened this past week. See below how steady it was holding at or around $30,000. It held there for weeks. Then, suddenly, it bounced. The price fell to $29,000 and went back up again the next day. That should have been a little warning. On June 10, it started slipping. It’s been falling ever since, with the steep grade increasing on the 12th. It hit $21,000 on the 13th and bounced up slightly before continuing its fall. Are there more declines coming?
I hope so.
I’d love to buy in at $10,000, shore up my holdings and get ready for the next bull run. When that will be is anyone’s guess. I think, probably, some time toward the end of 2023 or early 2024, bitcoin will begin its steady climb upward. First, it will be slow. But as the market gains more confidence heading into 2024, we will start to see big gains.
Of course, I’m not a prophet, but I fully expect a recovery. Yes, the market is crashing, but it will hit a bottom and bounce back. This is normal economic activity. What’s different about this bear run and past bear runs is its correlation to the stock market. How long that will last is anyone’s guess, but it could be a sign that bitcoin is headed toward mass adoption by financial institutions, which could make it a bona fide currency within a few years. Whether that happens or not, I’ll keep HODLing.
Now For Some Really Cool Crypto Stuff
What happens if bitcoin falls below $20,000? Think of it as a yo-yo.
After Coinbase announced it was instituting a hiring freeze, Binance announced it was going to hire 2,000 new employees. CEO Changpeng Zhao says this isn’t the first crypto winter and it won’t be the last. Therefore, he’s planning to leverage it for the next phase of growth. Binance is following Coinbase in another way, too. Some users are suing the company in a class-action lawsuit, claiming Binance.us knowingly sold unregistered securities. The customers are people who invested in Terra Luna. Binance also halted bitcoin transactions Monday as BTC hit the floor. Now, the exchange is putting the kibosh on Litecoin. Leigh Travers, CEO of Binance Australia, says regulation will lead to higher standards in crypto. Travers is right. Class-action litigants, in both the Coinbase and Binance lawsuits, are wrong. I hope they lose. Investing is inherently risky. Investing in cryptocurrency is riskier than investing in stocks and bonds. Investing in an algorithmic stablecoin is even more risky. People who lost their life savings in LUNA were just stupid. I can feel their pain, but they brought it upon themselves. They shouldn’t be rewarded for making a bad decision.
Ethereum fell below $1,100, and we still haven’t hit bottom yet. That’s true of the entire market. We may not be at the bottom yet.
JPMorgan downgrades Coinbase. See what CEO Brian Armstrong said to his employees.
Tron’s stablecoin USDD has lost its peg to the U.S. dollar. I can smell the pungent odor of regulation. CEO Justin Sun plans to spend $2 billion to save it. Could Tether collapse?
How Ripple survives a bear market.
Who’s paying for crypto’s collapse? Read with a grain of salt. Does crypto deserve to crash? An EXCELLENT READ.
Bill Gates slams NFTs, makes a joke about digital monkeys. Even still, the NFT market is surging as OpenSea announces new security features.
How to implement crypto payments into your e-commerce website.
Consulting firm McKinsey says metaverse spending will top $5 trillion in 2030. On their own blog, the firm goes on a myth-busting rampage in a deep probe of people’s views on the metaverse. I’m glad they’re probing something, and I’m equally glad it’s not me. A MUST-READ.
Arizona State University plans to offer classes in the metaverse.
Coin Center sues the U.S. Treasury and IRS over digital currency tax rule.
Has crypto failed us?
Who are the biggest NFT influencers on social media? The results here are a little skewed. It seems they are based on top follower counts on Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok. If you have a lot of followers and talk about NFTs, then you’re a top NFT influencer. Gary Vaynerchuk, a wine guy, wins the prize.
Words With Friends Co-Founder is setting up a game shop on Web3.
What is move-to-earn? Are we headed toward live-to-earn, where various apps will reward users for simply living their lives, for doing the things they’d already be doing? Will we see shop-to-earn, eat-to-earn, love-to-earn apps? Full disclosure: I use Actifit. Since I’ve started using it, I’ve walked every day. It encourages me to do what I should already have been doing.
The number of DAOs have increased by 8 times over the past 12 months.
Snark and commentary in italics, but none of this is investment advice.
Cryptocracy is a decentralized newsletter published several times a week. I curate the latest news and crypto analysis from some of the brightest minds in crypto, and sometimes offer a little insightful and snarky commentary. Always fresh, always interesting, and always crypto.
First published at Cryptocracy. Not to be construed as financial advice.