Why it makes sense for BSV people to hedge with BCH, but not the other way around

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4 years ago

Why it makes sense for BSV people to hedge with BCH, but it doesn't make sense for BCH people to hedge with BSV

The risk propositions of the two coins are not the same. Fundamentally, they are very different.

Bitcoin Cash is solidifying strong niches into it's ecosystem. It's SLP tokens are state of the art, it's adoption has the greatest momentum and driving-force, and it's got privacy like Monero and smart contracts like Ethereum. It also posseses all the fundamental qualities that BTC has that make it a hard money, except BCH is actually usable as money.

What does BSV have? No adoption, there's a lack of infrastructure for tokens, smart contracts, and privacy... There will also never be core protocol innovation according to Nchain. But hey at least it's closer to the original Bitcoin, right? Doesn't that have to mean something?

Not really. Being a cheap replica of BCH without any protocol innovation or any of the infrastructure, BSV is vastly inferior as a project.

People don't buy Coca Cola because "it's the real coca cola", they buy it because they're thirsty for something that tastes good. Likewise people won't buy or build on bitcoin because semantically "it's the real bitcoin", semantical arguments don't drive real life economics.

But this isn't all. There's a really scary risk proposition with BSV that not many ideological BSV supporters think about.

The Risk Proposition of BSV

If Craig is Satoshi, that's great. We can rip off other crypto projects and Nchain can make money with patent fees. By suppressing all superior competition, BSV can win. If Craig ends up being Satoshi, there will be a little bit of a price pump, but I doubt it will be a guaranteed moonshot to the top. That's the best case scenario.

If Craig isn't Satoshi, then that's a damn problem. Craig owns Nchain, which owns the fully patented and closed-source SV node, which has no competition to-date on the BSV blockchain. That means Craig controls 100% of the node implementation software on BSV. If he's some nefarious actor lying about being Satoshi, then the damage he could do to the BSV network is extensive. If Craig ends up not being Satoshi, you can definitely expect a price dump from all his ideological supporters who will leave because of this. This is the worst case scenario.

If we never find out with absolute certainty whether or not Craig is Satoshi, then BSV supporters stay in Bitcoin Bookclub Limbo forever as their fringe beliefs get forgotten by the economy as superior projects prevail at their expense. You'll forever be stuck wishing you were something greater than what you are, and the depression of that state will likely hinder you from changing it. This is the likely scenario.

Ultimately, buying Bitcoin SV is WAYYY riskier than buying Bitcoin Cash, due to the extremeness of what has to happen for it to obtain or lose full realized legitimacy. Bitcoin Cash is a less risky investment because it is actually competing for economic niche establishment and has real momentum in its adoption.

Also, here's another thing to think about. In the best possible case scenario for BSV, that being that Craig is Satoshi and he sues and subdues all his enemies, then BCH is still likely to perform well. Why? Because the correlation between BCH and BSV is something like 85%, and most places you can buy BSV have a trading pair connected with BCH, giving it an established price relationship. Even if BSV becomes "the real bitcoin" BCH would likely become the experimental testnet for an innovative version of bitcoin, because it's actually competing in the crypto economy with it's innovation and momentum.

Conclusion

If you hold some BSV, given the risk proposition, it doesn't really make sense to not hold BCH as a hedge. You'd have to be 100% sure that Craig is actually Satoshi to do that. And let me ask you, aside from emotion, what irrefutable proof do you have that makes you 100% sure of Craig? Have you thoroughly analyzed that thing, whatever it is?

The only path for BSV's success is to tax the competition to death with patents, because the competition (like Bitcoin Cash) is actively innovating the protocol and actively investing hundreds of millions into merchant adoption efforts. Even if BSV succeeds, do you think you're investing into something with good moral grounds?

And even if BSV succeeds at becoming "the real bitcoin", that isn't grounds for people to want to buy, use, or build on BSV. That will only be winning a semantical argument... And you'll still have to compete with Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum as innovative money systems.

Be warned though, if Craig isn't Satoshi, you could lose everything. So why go all in on BSV if it's risk proposition is all or nothing? If you haven't proven that Craig is Satoshi, why would you risk your personal finances like this? At least, why do you think it would be smart to go all-in on a year-old fork project with so much risk?

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BSV IS A STEAMING PILE OF DOG SHIT

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