As I mentioned in my title, I estimate that Bitcoin will reach $ 80,000 in April. Of course, I say this according to some of my researches. Now let me explain how I said this information.
Bitcoin investors with the largest option trade of $ 80,000 seem quite optimistic for April, according to data from derivatives exchange Deribit, compiled by analytics startup Glassnode.
Glassnode's co-founders said, "Bitcoin price expectations for April are high, many investors place their new bets at $ 80,000.
Some are even higher, the betting bitcoin will reach $ 120,000 this April, while it seems to have lower targets of another $ 40,000 return by bears.
But most of these contracts are not speculative bets, but just a margin or the maintenance of a futures position.
Additionally, most bettors might not expect $ 80,000. They may only think that the price will increase and therefore the option contract price will increase.
Options, as you know, are a right to buy something for a certain price, but not a necessity.This right is awarded for a premium such as a deposit for a home. This premium is lost regardless of what the price is, but most importantly, if you are the buyer of the call (long) option, you cannot lose more than the premium you paid.
Above, we can see that 446 options were purchased for $ 80,000, with a substantial interest at a maximum of $ 76,000.
For that $ 80,000, they're currently paying $ 1,000 from the $ 700 just a few days ago because the price is rising. It means that someone who bought the option at $ 700 has already earned 50% or $ 300.
All this is cheap because one option is a bitcoin and in derivative these are placed in bitcoin. However, when you buy an option, you cannot exactly buy one bitcoin unless you are the owner of the current price of $ 57,000.
Instead, you buy the advantage of the current price difference, regardless of the price. So you 'buy' $ 23,000 at $ 80,000, but there is a lot of complexity.
There are a lot of woodo called Delta, IV and the Greeks. In simple terms, the sooner the price reaches $ 80,000, you get more than $ 23,000 and vice versa.
So, if the price has reached $ 80,000 right now, the price of the option will be much higher than the current $ 1,000.
For example, you can see that the $ 60,000 option, which is only $ 3,000 at the current price, has a premium cost of $ 4,500.
However, if we were on April 29 and said the price was $ 80,000, then you would still have made some money, but you would not earn thousands of them, and you could even be at a loss because this right is about to expire and so as long as there is no profit over $ 80,000, in that case the premium will be the difference between the then surplus price and $ 80,000. If under, you lost the premium.
However, the option probably contains speculative elements in it and has its own supply and demand pressures.
So if he wants that $ 80,000 option very badly but doesn't want enough to write, if a little less wants the $ 76,000 option, and a little more wants to write it down, the $ 76,000 option might be more profitable. Low price.
But in practice you have bots and clever kids who do nothing all day but compress numbers to eliminate any possible arbitrage, so the "rational market" theory should apply here.
This is because, in some respects, it is "free" money for the option author who buys only one bitcoin when you buy a search option, and therefore if the price reaches $ 80,000, he only sells the money. If there is no price, it costs a premium and becomes a risk-free bet.
Or it is craving on futures on a 1x margin, where "o" is most likely an algoed bot following orders.
On the other hand, if you think the price of Bitcoin is rising and you want to buy 100x yolo while worrying that it may fall, you can buy the $ 40k put option to avoid being without a shirt. premium while pocketing margin earnings.
Or, instead of 100x yoloing, you can buy call option contracts and risk losing the premium, but potentially earn much more with less risk as these scary wicks won't liquidate you.
On the other hand, there are no such thing as permanent options, so you can't sit on your lucky 100x forever at $ 80.
That's why this crowded $ 80k options bet doesn't tell us anything and a lot. Nothing because it might just be math geeks tweaking their harb monkeys.
A lot of things are possible because this is our speculative prediction, most of these kids actually think Bitcoin will reach $ 80,000, or at least head in that direction.
This is because April tends to be a very good month for Bitcoin. I see ten that the earnings will be abundant this month. Of course, if you buy and sell correctly and have patience.
Although the information here is not investment advice, it is an estimate based entirely on your opinions. You can evaluate it yourself and decide whether to invest or not.
