It was tough being bearish when everybody else was into euphoria and not listening to the signs. Now, the crypto market is in decline and the same big traders with their hundred different accounts on Reddit and Twitter have changed their tune and calling everybody to short.
I finished my previous article with this sentence:
I'm not going to tell you to sell now though. When I had this opportunity I explained it perfectly. It is up to those losing money to find a way out of this and either keep their investment or sell to cut losses.
And I stand by what I say.
I was bearish because there is a lot happening that is not written and not discussed at all inside the crypto market. The manipulation is exteme and the information given to us inadequate to help us reach to a clear conclussion.
The Future markets are Decisive
We know for one fact that there is huge volumes in all Bitcoin future markets. It used to be just Bitmex and Bitfinex for some time, then some more players joined with derivative exchanges,like Bybit, FTX, OKEx, Binance and the CME futures market that had grown a lot in volumes as Bitcoin was rising.
Website: "The Block" has a futures page that I recommend to bookmark and use as reference for BTC investing. The CME volumes image is also from this source, which contains aggregated data from all BTC Future markets.
The volumes are in USD. An aggregate chart of total futures volumes in all exchanges is this:
According to this chart the monthly volumes of Bitcoin futures is above 2 trillion dollars. Although we know for fact that most of these exchanges are unregulated and fake their trading volumes.
We can however, take as a fact that there was a lot of money lost from the market due to liquidations of long positions in April and May.
This data is from CME liquidation only so it can be considered accurate and realistic. Futures is money not helping the industry. It is a bet on the industry.
When the Bitcoin contract expires at CME, the BTC is not given to the investor. The contract expires and the trade immediatly settles in cash. Unlike other futures markets like commodities, where the contract settles in the delivery of the commodity.
The Bitcoin futures market of CME is pure speculation and it is money that is not entering the industry.
Yet billions of dollars of trading have somehow an impact in the market sentiment. The only Futures market that we can feel safe with the numbers given is not touching the actual market but only bets on top of it.
What's the matter with $30K - Shorting Here?
Shorting this market at this level is a mistake. But this is my opinion. I would never advice to short for too many reasons.
The risk of selling now is too much to bear. The first indicator I received was from all the clustered accounts in social media, that suddenly appeared out of nowhere right at bottom prices.
These belong to the same big players that pushed everyone to buy above 60k while they were selling. And now they are buying back again. With DCA of course, not even the top players are certain of their results.
The big whales team up and plan ahead, but whenever there is an agreement, there is also someone that breaks the agreement in secret. In a free and fragmented market is not easy at all to control price.
As I explained in my final statement in the previous article here on Read Cash, for these current conditions and with all the variables I watch changing every day, I can't see the price going lower as many suggest.
What can happen is price to begin rising again. July is a decisive month for many reasons, mostly because of the charts that were giving 100k BTC.
This is the market where everyone is right about everything. We sometimes follow the trend but there are times the trend reverses. As with my previous prediction of ending the bull market I was correct, I see this time the market reversing again, at least I am not advising to sell now.
Images and screenshots are taken from Unsplash and The Block.
