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MtGox Act 3: The Bearish Ghost Returns

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1 month ago

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It is very long time with Bitcoin Cash and we are waiting but we can agree on one point. It is up 100% from the beginning of the year.

The problem we have is that almost anything else is up a lot more. Bitcoin Cash keeps losing position in the market. It is today in the 20 place and we are in hope of a change in this but nothing moves it. It is stuck to a price that is low.

We have so many news that are amazing but on each drop in Bitcoin price it is BTC gaining more advantage to Bitcoin Cash.

This write-up is about Bitcoin (BTC) though, but it has implications for the price of all cryptocurrencies. Nothing is spared, and when Bitcoin turns bearish so does the whole market.

Mt Gox - The Beast from the East

I wrote last month about Mt Gox rehabilitation plan.

Since many don't know what this event was let me explain:

Mt Gox was operating in Japan, created in 2011 by Jeb McCaleb that later founded Ripple, and was sold to Karpeles in 2012. Between 2011 and 2014 it was operational and at a point it was producing 80% of trading volumes for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin back then had 90-95% dominance in market cap, so the rest cryptocurrencies existed but had zero influence and considered to be scams and altcoins.

In 2014 Mt Gox was shut down after the administrators (Karpeles) announced the exchange had suffered a series of hacks all the years it was running and in total it was 850,000 BTC lost.

It had stopped withdrawals and delayed for weeks but was also accepting deposits. It filed for bankruptcy and during the investigation Karpeles announced the discovery of an older cold wallet that contained 200,000 BTC.

This is what Mt Gox is about today. A rehabilitation process that begun and the victims that want to distribute these funds according to their claim.

In 2017 the trustee of the rehabilitation process, Nobuaki Kobayashi, under agreement with some victims started selling part of these Bitcoins, with BTC at 20,000 USD. The problem was that Kobayashi probably started the bear market of 2018 with this action.

Whales and investors got scared with the amount of 200,000 BTC, and the sales begun. In the end Kobayashi sold close to 50,000 BTC and there was a remaining 150,000 Bitcoins left for an agreement to be reached with the rest of the victims.

Now, this agreement has been reached: https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20211020_announcement_en.pdf

What this means is that 150,000 BTC from the remaining in the Mt Gox wallet will be given back as rehabilitation process suggests. This 150,000BTC was valued 67 million back in 2014 with the price Bitcoin had then.

Today their total value is 9 Billion USD. The price of Bitcoin was $450 when Mt Gox was shut down and today is 130 times higher.

The Rehabilitation Trustee will then make repayments to rehabilitation creditors holding allowed rehabilitation claims in accordance with the Rehabilitation Plan. An announcement will be made to rehabilitation creditors on the details of the specific timing, procedures, and amount of such repayments.

The announcement will be next month. Some undefined time in November the creditors will receive their Bitcoin back.

If you ask me, this is bearish.

The collapse and bankruptcy of Mt Gox started the two year bear market in 2014-2016. It took exactly two years for Bitcoin to recover and the main event that helped it was the halving in 2016 (think it was in summer).

Mt Gox was again, one of the main reasons for the end of the previous bull run in 2017, when the trustee started selling. He sold 50,000 BTC within perhaps 8 months and stopped after that, but the market kept losing ground, and was looking bleak.

For Bitcoin it took one year and a few more months to begin recovery, but the reality was that the bear market lasted again for 2 years. It only managed to reach to a new ATH two and a half years later, again a few months after the halving.

Finally

If you read all of this, probably you know more now. The bears are again waking up after a short recovery and new ATH for BTC, Ethereum, and some more coins that probably will have no future when the bear market begins.

The Bitcoin ETF pushed price high, but it will be easy to push it as low as ... way lower than the previous 30k bottom.

My estimate is for 10K. This bull market is not convincing and has many differences from the previous too.

The recent new ATH of 68k (not even $70k) proved the fatigue from this bull run. What is sad is that some coins that should have risen a lot more like Bitcoin Cash, Dash, Monero, were kept back and losing ground to BTC.

And instead we watch meme coins rise, and all this speculation but again on all the wrong crypto.

Next month, or December the Mt Gox final 150,000 Bitcoins will be handed over to their rightful owners. With 13,000% profit, what are the odds almost all of them will be instantly sold?

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Hope everybody will be benefited by this %. Continue to hope. More changes to come.

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