Spoiler alert: this article may depress you, read at your own risk.
2020 has been bad for all of us, real bad. With 2021 just round the corner we all hope that it would be better than this and things get normal to a large extent. 2020 was a year of anxiousness, depression and loneliness; the virus had attacked at the root of our normal lifestyle and had successfully dislodged us from our routine life. So for most of us 2021 should be a ray of hope so that we can leave behind the scourge of 2020 and move on. But things are not so rosy looking as we might expect it to be. Was 2020 just a trailer of what is about to come in 2021?
Actually things can get worse in 2021. Everyone is pinning their hope on the vaccine to be available in large scale. But will it be in enough numbers to vaccinate the whole population of the world. Even if it is so then what would be the cost factor and how many will be able to afford it and how much will the governments will step in to provide it free of cost or at a subsidized rate for the poor people. Then how much trained manpower will be required to administer the vaccine, we know that it has to be given intra muscular so there is no question of self administration and only trained medical staff will have to do it. Then the question of maintaining the cold chain for the vaccine, though this may not be issue for developed countries but for many poor countries this might be an issue. Also all governments will have to prioritize its use due to supply bottleneck and in this the most vulnerable section will actually be at the bottom of the list. This vulnerable section is the one which is poorest of the poor and malnourished and jobless and more prone to get infected, and this lot will actually be at the bottom of the list.
Now everyone is talking of a second wave and may be a third wave. Historically all pandemic have raged till many years and we have not even completed a year with Covid. Though we are technologically way ahead from the days of Black Death or Spanish flu but we are not that ahead to actually take on the second wave. The first wave wrecked havoc with the lockdown, job loss, stress, depression and suicide. The crime rates and addiction rates have gone up. The loosening of the lock down has again increased the rate of spread and death. Though now we have a better understanding and experience of the lockdown, but a second wave will just have the same effect as the first wave. The first wave saw our health care system cracking under pressure and we are only marginally better now, but will it be sufficient to tackle the second wave smoothly, quite doubtful.
A major challenge will be the mutation of the virus into a deadlier version. We know that viruses are expert in it and routinely do it. So if we face such a situation then it will lead to more panic and deaths which will be difficult for the governments to handle.
Then there is the problem of food shortage. We have seen that the pandemic had affected the food supply chain and in many cities there was actually a food shortage and prices spiraling high. The New York Times wrote at the height of the pandemic that food banks across America could not meet the demands of the hungry. If the second wave is deadlier than the first one then starvation and death due to it could be a real life scenario. We know people protest but when it is related to food it can lead to serious law and order problems and civil unrest. Rogue leaders wait for such perfect time to further their agenda and people flock in, in expectation of a better future.
Voices have also been raised about the governments may increase the surveillance levels which might intrude the privacy of the individual. We know governments have facial recognition and other AI based technology to use, China being the best example of its misuse and intrusive nature. But democratically elected governments may start doing the same in the in the name of the pandemic. Governments may use to pandemic to curtail the freedom. As it is Google and Facebook is already doing it- tracking you.
The first wave seriously affected the economy of all countries and they are just now coming out of it, but a second wave would again lead to closure of industries and job loss and this time the damage would be worse than the last time. As per World Bank estimates there can be 150 million more people going down the poverty ladder and there can be a hunger pandemic.
This might seem to be a grim picture of the coming year but this is just a worst case scenario and I hope and may just not happen. But the future will surely look bleak for most of the people if it happens.
Thank you Telesfor sir