There are some rules in investing. Of course, rules are made to be broken, but I am sure about their meaning and the whole purpose of it: to offer the best chances for not losing all your money!
I am (still) reading the book of Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan, of course, nothing new, but probably he put things in an easy to digest form for every simple man. That's why I think his thoughts will be assimilated by more people, but in the same time I'm wondering if his opinion will not increase the appetite of risk for many of us who believe now in their capacity of anticipation and invincibility.
TL;DR: A Black Swan is an unexpected (for the affected actors) fact that could change dramatically a situation in a negative way. Why I stated the text with some mention between brackets - because what is negative for you, could be very positive for others: for example - the dump of BTC in March, 2020 was a very negative event for many of us, but for the people who already sold for a stable coin, it meant a doubling in BTC value.
Be careful, we are in a moment of a big reversal potential, and we could remain stuck in our investments on long term until the next climb of the investments value, especially in crypto.
Often, when somebody is telling you not to do something because several dangers are behind the scenes, you are more entrusted you analysed all the factors and you can go further.
We are confident, we are wise and well informed and the market sentiment is very positive! These are the factors that can blind us and we will see negative ones only when the Black Swan is happening. All the red flags are clear then, but is too late!
Anyway, of course, like Black Swan's author is explaining to us- even for an objective person, those red flags are not so well shaped. So, don't blame on your analysis capacity, but the intuition and the lack of listening "the big brothers" (risk management book writers) who told you to be careful.
So, the general rule is NOT invest ALL your money on one horse!
Excepting if we are talking about the money allocated for a certain category of investment (like crypto, stocks, FOREX, commodities, real estate, etc). That means you are not investing ALL your money in something, but all your crypto budget in one project, for example.
So, even you lose it all, you should have the rest of investments active: real estates or stocks, even bonds or bank deposits.
But, couldn't be possible to have a (small) Black Swan, just into our world - I mean - an unexpected, bad event that could turn us upside down? And could be this the decision itself to not invest in something we strongly believe?
In one of this moment I am now, when I am confident that one of my projects is going to make a big turn and change the status from incipient phase to a more mature one.
This should bring a huge jump in value and for a short time I will redirect almost all my crypto investments to this project. After the announcement, probably I will come back to my previous level of risk management portfolio split.
I did my choice (of course I am aware of risk) because I know the project in very deep details, I have contact with the team and verified if the info published are based on something solid.
I will not mention here the name of it, because I don't want to be considered a "shiller" and it is not important, by the way. Only the idea: never invest ALL IN in something excepting you are not ALL IN, but maybe just a category of your assets and you KNOW very well where you put your money. This means online presence is not enough to be close near your project, but personal meetings and self research at the project's place of development.
Even knowing all these details, I am aware something wrong could happen, but I am confident (and you should have also this opinion for the project you analyse) on the long term way of development for this project and my risk could be only on short term for not getting the big profit I expect now).
Also, ALL my investments were successful sooner or later, excepting one (I must admit sometimes I was out of them before taking the big profit, but that's life - we learn and go on).
This statistic should enforce my confidence I am choosing good, but anyway, be prepared for anything!
Lead Photo by Dziana Hasanbekava from Pexels