Oh, I just checked the prices because I wanted to make an experiment, to see what it should be done with AMPL to increase the value of the portfolio.
So, first, I need to study the facts:
my inputs - how many AMPL I have now: 100
the actual kucoin exchange price: 0.81 $ - 11 january 2021, 09:31 A.M. UTC
the oracle (24h average) price: 0.974 $ - at 11.jan.2021, 09:31 A.M. UTC
total AMPL circulating supply: 375.78 mil AMPL
price history vs last 24 h: -17% (was 1.0088 $)
Now, what is the next move?
How could be the average price until next morning at 02:00 A.M. UTC:
A. bigger than actual average and target price
B. bigger than actual average, but still lower than target price
C. the same with actual average
D. lower than actual average
These are the possible options now.
Which will be the most probable?
I think it will be D. - lower than yesterday, so - the next action should decrease the number of AMPL tokens to reduce the offer for selling.
The question is - how low it will be?
And now we have unlimited responses, but the most viable are:
only maximum 3 %
between 3-15 %
more than 15%
How the rebase process will act:
In the first case, I don't think something will happen
In the second, a max of 5% of circulating supply will be erased from our portfolio, so I will have 95 AMPL instead of 100
In the third case, we could expect at maybe 10-15% decrease of tokens, but divided in few days and the process will be canceled if the price is recovering.
Why is this important for trading?
Because we need to evaluate how is better for us: we should sell before rebase or not?
And we need to make some evaluations to predict the most possible scenario:
we sell now at 0.80 $
we try get a better price until the rebase
we wait the rebase and a decrease of our AMPL tokens with max 5%
Update:
I waited for the next day to see what is happening:
as I expected - it was a rebase and the supply was going from 375.78 mil to 367.82 mil ( a decrease of 2.11%) - seen also in my portfolio
the price grew until 0.88 and now is 0.82
So, the best solution was to sell until 01:00 at best price possible (maybe a 0.86 $ is safe), wait for rebase and maybe a drop in price and then come back in AMPL
