At what point does an industry leader recognize its demise?
The creative mind at play?
Back a long time ago, I was teaching English lessons at Nokia, where I had taught many groups over the space of years on both the Mobile and Networks side of the business. One of the groups I had was with a group of about 8 guys who all kind of looked the same and I kid you not, their names all started with M. Mika, Markko, Markku, Miika, Miikka, Markus.... it was a nightmare to tell them apart.
One of the sessions I had was an exercise where I had them draw a simple picture that they would then describe to a partner who would have to draw it from only the explanation. I was asked what they should draw and I said, whatever you want, you can choose. I was pressed again as to what to draw and I said that they can make it simple, a cat, a dog, a house. I gave them a minute or two and as I walked around the room, all I saw people drawing was... cats, dogs and houses.
They were all from the R&D team.
We got this.
This wasn't long after Apple had released their iPhone, which had a brilliant market strategy of creating a cutting edge and much-loved MP3 player - and then putting a phone in it. Nokia had lost a couple percentage points of market share quickly and I asked what they were doing about it. They scoffed - We still have 60% of the market...
A few months later.
We still have 55% of the market...
Even as they were going into what I considered a freefall, they believed they were too big to fail and it got to the point that they were already dead, but just didn't know it yet.
Oh, you're serious
Almost at this time last year, a friend asked me what he should do with the money he was getting form the sale of an apartment and I said, take 10-20% and get into Bitcoin. He went to the bank and asked his financial advisor "what if I put some into Bitcoin?" and she laughed and laughed and replied with tears of joy in her eyes, "Sure, if you want to lose everything you have". I heard today that the same Finnish bank is now advising people to get into Bitcoin.
But, I don't think they have realized that they are already dead.
Don't get me wrong here, the banks aren't going to disappear fast, it is going to take time - but banking as it has been known since its inception is going to change and looking back, it is going to look like a revolution took place - and it would have.
You here and you over there
In the past, we needed banks, as they were the only ones who could organize the transfer and tracking of wealth at a global level, and they were the only ones that could be "trusted" as gatekeepers of our wealth and as they used it to loan out, charge interest upon and grow, they were the ones we turned to when we needed more money than we had in our pockets. But, due to technology, man of the tasks they performed for a fee, are able to be done by us for free or, a fee that gets spread across many participants, not one centralized entity.
We have each become banks and due to the ability to transfer and track even micro amounts with precision, we each do not need to have all the funds available to take part in larger monetary needs, we can contribute at a micro level and still see a relative percentage return. This changes everything in regards to the way money flows and because it no longer has to flow through the banking gateways to have a percentage extracted for services that are no longer needed, the entire economy changes, as power streams shift course.
Disturbed from slumber
This is going to affect all kinds of financial activity and is going to revolutionize the way we interact with each other and collaborate on projects together. Once the banking guardians of the gates are out of the way, borders between people come down and wealth starts to flow freely and more directly. This is going to change everything in regards to everything, as everyone starts to invest for a return, without needing the centralized middlemen and instead using each other as pooled banks.
Yes, there will still be inequalities, but there will also be a change in how even the large investors interact with the economy, as they will not have to tie themselves to an institution, as they will be able to perform all the activities themselves, or as a group - but there will be a great deal more competition and a far greater degree of spread of income earned.
The economy is dead, but most participants just don't know it yet -including the people who have been trained as economists. The reason is that most don't recognize the nail in the coffin is because this level of organization between so many people globally *without a central authority dictating terms, has never been seen before. One of the reasons they don't see it is that most of the people who are financial advisors have been trained in the economy that is known, not the technology that is going to replace what they know.
Move along, nothing to see here
Death is part of the life of all things and nothing remains the same. It is incredible to think that financial advisors who should be experts in risk analysis, have failed to recognize that there is even a threat to their existence. For them, it is going to be like a shot from a snipers rifle in the distance - by the time they hear the sound of fire, it is already too late - they were already dead, they just didn't know it yet. For them, the distance to the technology of what is coming, has masked the true capabilities of it and as such, they ignore it and keep going about their business - until there is no business left to go about.
These are exciting times and they won't be without their challenges, but when we come out the other side, everything will be different. Everything fails eventually, no matter how big or small, everything has its time.
We will eventually be replaced, but now is our time.
