Why BTC will never reach $100000

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Avatar for Telesfor
2 years ago

Today I wrote on noise.cash why I think BTC will never reach $100000. Let me explain why, from my point of view, it will never happen.

We are in a bear market.

The first realisation is that we are in a bear market. Colin Talks Crypto runs an interesting website colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi that provides several metrics. If you look closely, you can see that the BTC bull run in 2021 was different from the two previous bull runs.

Source: colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi

The bullrun index of 100% was not reached in April, nor in November. The BTC price was slightly higher in November than in April, but the Bullrun Index was significantly lower. I suspect that both times the BTC whales tried to drive up the BTC price and both times they failed. Will there be further attempts by the whales? Perhaps, even probably. Will it work? Very unlikely.

Why? Why is the price trend of BTC and Bullrun Index different this time?

The influence of DeFi

The answer is relatively simple. There was no DeFi in 2013 and 2017. Look at the price history of BTC over the last year.

Source: coinmarketcap.com

And compare it to last year's market capitalisation.

Source: coinmarketcap.com

You see that the market capitalisation has doubled and BTC price is fals at the same level as a year ago. You can see this even better if you look at the market capitalisation without BTC.

Source: coinmaketcap.com

Capitalisation without BTC has increased fivefold in last year. There are a lot of new coins compared to the past and these coins runs on DeFi blockchains. The biggest is, of course, ETH.

But look at the increase in capitalisation of the funds invested in DeFi.

Source: defillama.com

It has increased tenfold and is only about 145 b, so it still has a lot of room to grow. But why is the amount of funds invested in DeFi increasing so much and no longer in BTC? This answer is also simple. DeFi enables higher profits with less risk. Anyone who has tried SmartBCH can confirm it.

Therefore, in the future, much more new funds will flow into DeFi projects than into BTC. Much more, capital will be withdrawn from BTC and put into DeFi. The more people recognise the benefits of DeFi, the more funds will flow into it. The more funds that flow into DeFi projects, the higher the price of the coins in those projects will rise.

Is the fact that the bull run went deeper than the previous ones a cause for concern? Not at all from my point of view. Rather, it is a reason to rejoice. I suspect that the bull runs and especially the long bear markets caused by BTC halving will soon no longer be so strong. We will see a relatively continuous rise in the market.

What does this mean for Bitcoin Cash? Bitcoin Cash with SmartBCH is still relatively new and little known. It has taken a while for many comparable projects to become established. Many centralised projects were pushed by expensive marketing measures. SmartBCH will spread by word of mouth. This takes a little longer, but is more sustainable. SmartBCH has a very strong competitive advantage in my opinion. It is the only DeFi project that uses a coin that can be used immediately for payment in very many places. It only needs to be moved to the mainnet via hop.cash. It takes seconds and costs only 0.1%. Other coins have to be exchanged first to be used, which usually takes a long time and costs fees, or are very expensive to use, like ETH. And anything that has a competitive advantage will catch on sooner or later.

And what about BTC? There will be less and less money flowing into BTC. More and more money will be withdrawn from BTC. But there will always be BTC hodlers who will hope that the price will rise. At some point the last ones will lose hope and drop the coin. Then BTC will be forgotten, just as nobody talks about AltaVista or mySpace today.

But it will probably still take a while.

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Avatar for Telesfor
2 years ago

Comments

Beautiful

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Dear actually now a days Cryptocurrency market low now a days. But according to me there is chance of 40% that BTC can touch its maximum bull of $100,000. But i am agree with you. There are a lot of reasons that BTC down.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

No doubt BTC will never reach 100k when I entered in crypto world many of my friends ask me to invest in BTC but when I do some research and came to know about thier transaction fee and future I never think to invest in it

$ 0.06
2 years ago

As a short-term speculation, BTC price can go up, but if you really think long-term, I advise you against BTC. All those who buy BTC will regret it in the long run.

If you like, you can still read this article.

https://read.cash/@Telesfor/is-bitcoin-btc-a-digital-gold-f427d899

$ 0.00
2 years ago

If the argument is that DeFi is where the money will go, and it is going, that will mean that the next step will be for DeFi on Bitcoin and not any other, and that will mean that eventually, everything that other networks do like ETH will be done with Bitcoin. In other words, the DeFi that will matter is the one that will run on Bitcoin regardless of fees.

I guess your article will require an article response to put into perspective my point of view and the ideas that I have, either way, no one knows the future and I am not here to make controversy but to explorer other ideas that have not been explored just yet.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

If the argument is that DeFi is where the money will go, and it is going, that will mean that the next step will be for DeFi on Bitcoin

You know it yourself that there is a DeFi based on BTC. It is called RSK. I don't think anyone can call it a success.

https://defillama.com/chain/RSK

DeFi based on BTC cannot be a success, therefore there is no real DeFi on BTC. If it had a chance of success, it would already exist. The problem is the broken main chain of BTC. A chain that can only process 300,000 tx per day is not suitable for this (even if it is only a matter of transactions from the main chain to the side chain). Everyone knows that and that is why there will be no DeFi on BTC. BTC can still profit for a while through PR measures and awareness, but the future cannot be built on tweets alone. You have to have good technical conditions for everything to work. BTC doesn't have that, which is why it has to fail in the long run. Other chains are more advanced.

BTC is like the first mass-market car Ford T. Everyone was used to using Ford T and that's why everyone bought Ford T. Other chains are like better, newer cars. Gradually, people will give up the old Ford T and buy better cars. And new buyers don't buy Ford T any more anyway. They use better cars (chains) right away.

Thank you for reading my article and the comment.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

When I first discover Cryptocurrency I only knew about bitcoin and was happy with the little profit I get before but since the time I knew about bitcoincash I came to realize the big difference between the two crypto coin. the transaction fees. I was amazed how low it is.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Most people start with BTC because it is the best known. But best known does not mean best.

Have you tried SmartBCH?

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Yeah. It's not the best either. Yes I have some tokens in my smartbch.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Your observations about Bitcoin may be come to past , take a look at the famous Myspace token it has been long forgetten๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿ˜…

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Appreciate the article, although I'd disagree on the conclusion.

There has been no blow-off top for bitcoin price, as shown by almost all of the supporting metrics of the CBBI. To me this indicates we are in for another move up once this correction is over.

Of course, if the CBBI is wrong and this truly is a bear market, then it basically invalidates CBBI and all of the metrics being used, as they can no longer be relied upon for calling bitcoin cycle tops.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Thank you for reading my article. I appreciate it. Very much. Your CBBI website is very helpful and maybe my conclusions are wrong, but as I wrote this bull run was different from the previous ones due to the emergence of DeFi. Whether we are really in bear market or still in bull market, we will know soon. Greetings.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Nice article and so informative, Iโ€™m new here kindly so some support

$ 0.00
2 years ago

I'm glad and I know that Smart BCH will still go high and maybe be on pair with BTC because BCH has lot of advantages than the rest as stated in this article

$ 0.00
2 years ago

hello my friend your article is too good

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Oh thank you for sharing your thoughts, it adds my learning about the info of BCH ๐Ÿค—

$ 0.00
2 years ago

I don't really what to say cause currently I invested in bitcoin but the amount turned zero I still have stakes on it I pray it reaches 10,000.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Oh I prayed that BTC is not forgotten I have invested all of my earnings at BTC is will be a great lose for me , investing on BTC can be a great lose 10 years later

$ 0.00
2 years ago

I don't think praying will help much. What helps is to observe the market, analyse it and draw the right conclusions. My article is only meant to help.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

New projects on DeFi capitalising the fund more and this causing the share value of BTC down . With in a year BTC lost more then 23% market share . From total 62% to 38% now . The investors taking out their funds from BTC and investing in new emerging projects to gain more . The analysis you made are pure , accurate and reality base . I think no one can deny it if he knows the ground reality. But yes propaganda is there by paid cocks. More power to you!!

$ 0.06
2 years ago

Thank you for the appreciation.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Sounds like a prophecy. The points you raised are awesome, and Iโ€™m glad that thereโ€™s chances for Bitcoin Cash and SmartBCH

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Thank you Max for your visit, comment ant tip. It's just an analysis.

$ 0.00
2 years ago

๐Ÿ˜ƒ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘

$ 0.00
2 years ago

Hi, my friend

Yes, I read your post on noise.cash and I think you are right. Although, you never know what cards stakeholders have up their sleeves.

I hope the fulfillment of your prediction, because, in this scenario, opportunities improve for everyone, especially for the poorest, who will be able to participate based on their possibilities, and not as in Ethereum, where access to star products is prohibitive (DEFI). That is, one has to be generously wealthy to pay for the high gas.

SmartBCH is doomed to succeed in this regard. I hope to read a new post sooner or later in which you celebrate the definitive success with us.

Greetings.

$ 0.27
2 years ago

Altavista!! Now this is the perfect example of what BTC will be in another 10 years.

$ 0.27
2 years ago

Thank you for the tip.

$ 0.00
2 years ago