@Talon 26 February 2022 more from that month

The Chess Of International Politics I'm always baffled with the state of international politics. When some incidents begin to play out, you have to wonder why and what all the political science and conflict resolution courses in our universities are for. It begins to look like all that money invested in these courses are nothing but waste. Once again the situation playing out in Ukraine just proves that all over again. As always, it started with something of a little concern. Russia is and has always been against the expansion of US influence towards it region, and that's a legitimate concern seeing that both parties never really quite reconciled since the end of the last world war. To understand Russia's concern, imagine a scenario where Russia is having military cooperation agreement with countries such as Mexico and Canada; countries that directly borders the US. These are the kinds of agreement that would allow the stronger of them host weapons and personnel within the territory of the weaker one to ensure their security. What do you think will be the US response? Trust me when I say it won't be regular diplomacy. **Putin's Concern** Since after the cold war, there seemed to be an unwritten rule between both parties that none will aggressively push to enter into the others circle of influence, something the US and it allies have now done in even nurturing the thought of admitting Ukraine into NATO. Of course, Ukraine is a sovereign state and has the right under international laws to enter into any treaty and agreement that it considers beneficial to it, Russia and the US for the fear of each other have never allowed their neighbors to fully enjoy that right. So, following their very flawed arrangement, the US was about to cross a red line. Russia would have wait to see how it plays out, but this was a line that if crossed will leave them extremely vulnerable without enough time to adjust. The current arrangement that makes both nation feel secure in their strength took years to build, allowing this play out first would have disrupted that arrangement and leave Russia heavily vulnerable, and it will take years to find their feet again, years in which they will have to play servant to the whims of the US. So yes, Putin's concerns were legitimate, but his probable response was what the US didn't guess right, just the same way they didn't guess right in Afghanistan. I've got to say the current team of the defense analysts that the US has in it employee are quite terrible, but again since time immemorial they have always been shortsighted, hence always wrong on the long run. The events that resulted in the annexation of Crimea taught Putin a big lesson; once a powerful nation makes a move, nobody can really tell it to undo it, unless they want to go to war, which is something that's not easily ventured into today. So, he thought he had to be proactive, for if he allowed this whole thing play out and US/NATO deploy it weapons and personnel in Ukraine, there will be no going back and Russians will forever live in fear of being attacked at the slightest provocation. **Putin's Response** Mr Putin decided to make the first serious move; occupy Ukraine before the US gets a chance to do so. He set out to occupy Ukraine, which is what is playing out today. Technically caught off guard by the Russian response, the US has only two options to deal with the issue; economic sanctions or military sanction. While one will squeeze the air out of the Russia economy and it war chest, the other will lead to all-out war. The US has taken the economic sanctions route, which many should know will not determine Russia. To me, it seems to be another classical US play; use an ally and leave them to dry when you're finish or it goes sideways. In all this , notice how I didn't make mention of Ukraine as a party. That's because Ukraine is just a pawn in a game between the US and Russia, the grass that suffers when two elephants fights. **Conclusion** I hope to God, that there is a political resolution to all this, but I don't see one, because this incident has taught Russia another lesson, that they can't do things for the sake of their second motive for invading Ukraine, which I'll talk about in my subsequent article.