Another bull trap before Lower?

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What the heck US officially announced recession and market is pumping what's going on?

  1. It hasn’t announced. It’s technical recession

  2. Everyone was expecting the negative. Negative was quite low not even 1%

Were in a recession but it won't be announced until after the midterm elections.

Literally the definition of a recession.

a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

We have been in the verge of a recession for over a year. There have been clear indications of that. We are now in the beginning stages of what probably will be a moderate recession within the next 6-8 months. All will depend on inflation and prices cooling and how quickly consumer confidence will come back. Then you will see GDP start to increase.

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Well technically they didn't. Whereas some consider it one due to negatives in a row. Fundamentally it doesn't necessarily mean it's a recession. (By definition, it does. A recession occurs when you have two or more successive declines in GDP. That has occurred and you can’t tell me that people will be spending what they normally do during Christmas holidays which means that the last quarter of the year will have the largest decline in GDP.)

Most the people I know currently have more money than they have in previous years. 2020 was worse. I think they may have money but they are not spending it, hence, two negative quarters on GDP and the last quarter will be the biggest negative. More than two successive negatives on GDP constitutes a recession.

It's just an indicator for for the beginning. But gpd analysis data is revised later on as more data is collected . Sometimes it take over 12 months to confirm recession.

Couple of things to keep in mind before we lose our heads and dollars.

Feel free to look all of this up as I don’t care what shitty President is in office as they simply don’t care about me (or you) in my opinion.

Contracting GDP for two consecutive quarters is the “rule of thumb” recession indicating data point but it isn’t declaration of a recession.

Here’s why:

The only entity that declares if we are in a recession or not is the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research). And they don’t declare it until a later date as they continue to analyze the data. As an example, they didn’t confirm the last recessionary period until 15 months after the fact. The full range has been as near term as 4 months to as far out as 21 months after the second quarterly contraction.

Again, don’t take my word for it, look it up.

Secondly, GDP data is revised later on. And it’s been revised both up and down historically so it’s possible the revised data contradicts this announcement.

Are we in a recession? Who knows? We won’t know for months but it sure feels like it (for whatever that means to you). Right now our hopes are pinned to the Fed not continuing to muck up their policy and to curb inflation and earnings reports (more so future guidance than actually meeting/beating/falling short of expectations).

Not financial advice.

I understand how the recession and economy works.

I’m actually working on a Ph.D in all sectors of business. Having said that, my argument is, by definition, we are in a recession. By any definition that you look up.

What will be determined at a later date is now significant of a recession we will have based on data points. We have known since the first time that rates started increasing that, long term, the only way to have a correction is by a recession.

Look at other countries, they have declared a recession months ago. I do believe that politics has slowed economists from giving clear indications of where we were headed.

We have know this for almost a year. Now it’s happening. I suggest that the fourth quarter will look very bad.

What do you think about eth outperforming btc right now? Eth is at pre crash levels today. Btc is not.

It is interesting. I haven’t put anything in over the past month since it hit $17k. I have said for a few months that the US would be in a full economic recession by the fourth quarter 2022 or early first quarter 2023. With that, I said a few months back that BTC would hoover around $20k and then drop significantly if the US does go into a full economic recession. Now this is just an opinion. Will it happen as I described? Maybe, maybe not, but hopefully for the start investors. I’m my opinion, the ones with the mega cash believe that BTC is here to stay and willing to take the risk unlike other coins that they are more fearful of. ETH is far from BTC. Also, the fact that just a month ago, the LUNA coin went to nothing. Many believed it was a mostly stable coin. I never did but many did. Even some “whales” did. It does cause hesitation.

I bet if Trump were the President it would be a recession.

It’s hilarious every time a democrat is corrected they always bring up trump as a defense mechanism. A complete hypothetical one for that matter 😂.

My point was that if Trump was the President the media would be screaming recession 24-7. Oh yea well thats most likely true. It would be displayed in the worst way possible for sure.

For those saying we (US) is not in a recession.

For those saying we (US) is not in a recession, then you don’t understand the definition of a recession. We are definitely in a mild recession and it will get much worse before it gets better. Do not listen to what the democrats are saying to down play this. They know that their jobs are on the line come November’s midterm election.

People laugh and say, "lol what recession doesn't need to be announced it just happens and no the US is NOT IN A RECESSION..people still buying cars. Houses, traveling low unemployment, people like you spewing garbage as facts."

I would suggest them to get educated. This is the definition of a recession.

  1. A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

There HAVE BEEN two successive quarters of decline in GDP. Your logic of people still buying things and going on vacation is not an indication in any form or fashion that we are not in a recession. We could be in a deep depression and some people would still be going on vacations and buying things. The key to a recession is when we have two or more successive quarters of decline in GDP which means that the overwhelming majority of the general public has slowed on their buying.

Look at the fuckin chart, if you can understand them without someone spoon feeding you information.

Additionally, you can still have low unemployment and increased wages while still having a recession. Depending on the depth and longevity of a recession, those numbers can reverse. Currently, we are faced with record high inflation which has quadrupled in many cases the price of goods sold.

This affects consumer confidence and the overwhelming majority of people are only buying what the need to buy to survive. Hence the reason for decline in GDP over the past two quarters and by definition has created a recession.

Some economists will call it a technical recession for political reasons and to keep consumer confidence from falling much faster. They do it in hopes of a “soft landing”.

If this approach works, then we may not see a full blown economic recession. However, looking back at history, most technical recessions turn into moderate economic recessions. We saw this during the Obama years.

When inflation is at a record high, we are most certain to see at least a moderate economic recession by the end of the year or the first quarter of 2023. At the end of the day, we have had two successive quarters of decline in GDP which defines a recession.

The severity is yet to be seen.

All of the factors that you mentioned do not have to be in play for a recession to occur. The fact is, by definition, the US is definitely in a recession. The severity of it will likely be seen in the last quarter of 2022 or the first quarter of 2023. I can’t imagine with the price of everything skyrocketed due to inflation that GDP can do anything but have a huge decline in the last quarter. People will not be buying for Christmas like they normally would because most people are living paycheck to paycheck currently.

Blah blah fear mongering people have always lived pay check to paycheck that ain't nothing new GDP is the most overatted and outdated crap to look at when the US whole economy is based on service industry... The US doesn't manufacture a fucking thing that other countries want or need on a consistent basis ...the US even import food GDP is complete stupid to look at alone. People still at bars and clubs I don't see no mass wave of eviction or foreclosures unemployment is low people still driving and the stores are packed.

The reason that the drop in GDP isn’t wrecking the markets

The reason that the drop in GDP isn’t wrecking the markets is because the rate increases have been gradual, preventing a full panic, and the alternative is hyperinflation, which would be much worse.

So overall, people are okay with the state of things at the moment. There are still record numbers of jobs available, people are not struggling to pay their bills (as evidenced by ppl’s willingness to quit their jobs), and the supply chain is in better shape than it was a year ago.

Stop scaring people we are not in a recession 🤦🏽‍♂️ 😂

I saw a news on coin marketcap but didn't read the full article

Don't worry if US in recession. Others countries more affected compare to US. Market and trader just react based on Powell speech, by definition, we are in a recession. We have had two consecutive negative reports on GDP. That is a recession.

Michael H. Graves II it's just the beginning indicator but more data needs to be collected over a longer period of time before full recession announcement

My argument is, by definition, we are in a recession. Whether it will become a full fledged economic recession will be determined after the fourth quarter. There is no way that consumers spend near as much during this Christmas holiday as the last. The fourth quarter will most likely be the worst GDP numbers yet. But a recession has not be official declared yet it's too soon to determine.

I think it is pretty obvious that i want everyone to believe that the recession is here and that the 4th quarter is going to be terrible because i want Biden to fail😉.

And Biden has already failed. I’m clearly giving the facts. You cannot change the definition of a recession. Biden has tried doing that in hopes of saving his party. You cannot deny the fact that economists have been saying this for the better part of a year. You cannot deny the fact that the overwhelming majority of people have slowed on buying. Hence the reason for two negative quarters of slowed GDP. You also cannot deny the fact that people are going to spend much less this Christmas Holliday which is the largest quarter for retail. It will be ugly when fourth quarter GDP numbers come out. You have to look at the facts. This isn’t something that just happened. We have been warned of it everyday for almost a year. It’s been online, in the media.


  • Lol beginners go short on news and the whales liquidate them . That's why I buy cheap and hold you can't play them just don't leverage and relax and wait for a bull market. Nice and simple .

  • Because it was a 75bp hike whatever one knew was coming anyway. Everyone also knew the recession was coming as well so it’s priced in

  • Crypto market is completely based on decentralized demands and supply of coins.. if people don't want to consider banks as deposits despite higher interest rate, and still willing to make money in market it won't crash!!

  • Intangible Asset Bull Market: "Buy the rumor, sell the news"...Intangible Asset Bear Market: "Buy the news, sell the rumor"

  • Whales just preparing to harvest more fomo retailers, yeah things looking fishy, when the whales make a splash, everyone gets wet.

  • Simple logic maybe they think crypto is anti inflation maybe there psychological mind consider crypto as a great Investment because of this crazy inflation.

Thanks for reading 📖

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I didn't put anything after $17k as well. lol There are so many debates and predictions about BTC and ETH. My motto is to follow my own research.

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