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Working to a strict plan and strategy is always best when trading markets. Markets are irrational at best and if you are not disciplined it can become a rather “messy” combination. My best-case bottom target came very near to being realized overnight. Bitcoin moved into the 20K zone very briefly, only to bounce back into a somewhat more favorable zone. Even though this is extremely close to my target I am choosing to hold out for my target. Further downside will not matter too much for BTC but it will be a final bleed-out for altcoins. Buying alts at these levels is where my interest lies. As mentioned, I have set orders for alts at levels I am very comfortable buying at.
Something To Remember
The bottom may be brief but there will be a long period of “very reasonable” accumulation in the months ahead. For newer investors with a long-term horizon, buying now is a fairly decent entry. It definitely beats buying alts when BTC was trading at $32K, which was only days ago. In any event, it is always important to maintain a cash or stablecoin balance for “swan events” and unforeseen tragedies. Imagine if the market were to experience another LUNA scenario at this point. That would be an absolute bloodbath!
Orders Are Waiting
The building of new long (investment) positions will commence the moment my buys are triggered. I shorted this market down to this point with 3X leverage. I will not only be purchasing new holdings at my estimated target but also opening new leveraged longs. These are “positions”, which means they are built over time. Sideways movements and even further downside do not pose much risk due to my strategy. A fresh season of accumulation is about to begin for me.
A Possible Revisitation
There is a very strong likelihood that the price action visits my target earlier than expected. If this is the case, I believe that it will most likely revisit again at a later point, approximately around the timeframe I mentioned weeks ago. This is somewhere towards September. What I am suggesting is that even if a bottom is reached soon, I expect that bottom to be revisited in September. This is based on technical analysis and has a strong likelihood of taking place. You can only work with what the charts are saying and to go beyond what I have already stated would be to overplay my hand. We need to wait for further price action. At this point, there is still enough confluence to suggest that my bottom prediction is still valid.
I have noticed that many of the “popular voices” predicted a bottom of $25K, $23K, and $22K. I have noticed that some have publicly readjusted their target to my target level of $18K to $19K. As I have said, I don’t adjust my analysis because it is unlike the majority. I do my research and then stick to my thesis. Whether it turns out to be correct or not, only hindsight can reveal. We have to weather the storm and do our best to navigate our way through as safely as possible.
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