THE BITCOIN HABIT

More Than A Cycle

The current bear market is something extremely uncomfortable for many a new Crypto investor. Many have heard about previous crashes but hearing about something and living through it are two very different experiences. Even those who have been through this before struggle at times, so you can imagine how shaken up the newcomers are. However, there is comfort in the consistency of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior. This is not the first crash and it won’t be the last. The largest companies in the world are also affected by the current economic climate. What many fail to realize though is that this would have happened regardless. There wasn’t much in terms of a macro issue that encouraged a crash in 2018. It was merely Bitcoin indulging in its cyclical indulgence. Bitcoin has an inherent need to outperform the skeptics, as well as disappoint the “moon boys”.

Be Neither

The only way to avoid being on the wrong side of the market is to be neither. The most logical and successful approach to date is to monitor and assess Bitcoin’s habitual price performance. What does the price of Bitcoin do consistently and without change over time? One thing that you will soon identify is the four-year cycle, which is triggered and sustained by the halving dynamic. Avoid being skeptical, as well as a moon boy and instead, look to the charts. Something is relevant until it’s not. Many were calling the four-year cycle irrelevant prior to it being proven irrelevant. This is once again the human condition, exaltation over fact.

Charts & Data

Data is one of the purest forms of information. Bad actors can find ways to be deceptive though. For instance, a group of whales could agree to deposit loads of Bitcoin onto exchanges with no intention of selling. Those monitoring this would naturally expect a sell-off. A false indicator is triggered and whales simply buy more and remove their BTC. I identified an instance similar to this in 2021 and it played out as expected. There were a few other indicators that were providing confluence for the alternative outcome, which helped me to identify it as a false signal. This is why confluence is vital. Trading without confluence is not trading, it’s gambling. You need a thesis for any investment or trade strategy.

Breaking A Habit

One of the most difficult things in life is to abandon a bad habit. Developing a new habit is a lot easier than breaking an old one. Bitcoin ignored all the adoption, institutional investment, and legalization as currency just to indulge in a 13-year-old habit. Until this habit is broken, don’t presume that it is. It’s that simple. I believe that it will always be around but will most likely become a lot less prevalent. It will become a lot more difficult to highlight but it will still be contributing to the price action.

Why Do I Say This?

Quite simply, you cannot cut the supply of such a predominant asset by 50% and experience no change. It is the reverse of stating that the FED can increase the supply of dollars without triggering inflation. It’s ludicrous, right? The same applies to Bitcoin. Many on-chain analysts get ahead of themselves in my opinion. They exclude basic principles because they view what they are “picking up” in isolated time frames as new data that is superior to the current information. There is wisdom in not being too smart!

Final Thoughts

Finally, we have a global macro situation that is going to be a massive challenge for Bitcoin to overcome. Even within this turmoil Bitcoin is behaving as it always has, despite what the media says. It’s going to be interesting to see what plays out in the following two years.

BITCOIN - PREPARE FOR HEAVY DOWNSIDE MOVEMENT

Lets’s Recap

Recently, Bitcoin retested the $18K level, which is what I said I was expecting and hoping to see. As mentioned some time ago, I pointed to this as a key deciding factor. Either the double bottom formation would be validated or rejected, simultaneously providing an indication of where the market was likely to go next. The double bottom has since been invalidated, which leads me back to my mapped-out targets. The first target was in the $18K zone, while the second target is all the way down at $13K. You can read my article from May in which I outlined these targets. I know a lot of people don’t believe that Bitcoin can go there. It’s really not that difficult at all. A lot of support in the order books under $20K is spoofing. As soon as the price action gets aggressive and begins to accelerate, these orders disappear. Many are looking to the $15K level as the next stop. The only problem with this is that there is no real support at this level.

Image Source – Ftx.com

The graph above reveals how the double bottom formation has been completely invalidated. New traders take note: when a pattern fails, it is often a case of the reverse dynamic. In other words, once there is significant clarity and confluence that a formation has failed, counter-trading the formation is the best approach. Short sellers will be looking to short this key rejection.

The Third Touch Of The $18K Level

This will most likely lead to the third visit of the $18K level. Constant revisitation of a support level causes the floor to wear down and subsequently give way. This might not be what people are wanting to hear but this is what the data is revealing, emotions aside. We may bob about in the 20K zone for a bit longer before a sudden and deep drop. However, I think it’s highly unlikely that BTC will not revisit previous lows. This is a brief update of what I am currently seeing in the charts and should not be considered investment advice. Please, conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor if need be.

Final Thoughts

My personal thoughts regarding this next move are that this is quite likely to be the worst of it. That means that if BTC finds support at $15K I will begin moving in, to some extent. I will still hold back on a portion but I believe that the $15K level will provide a reasonable entry, especially for alts. If stability is weak and $13K appears imminent, I will hold off and monitor accordingly. Thanks for the visit. Exciting times ahead!

HIVE - A DECENTRALIZED HOME FOR BLOGGERS & CONTENT CREATORS

A Place To Build

Hive is currently one of the best, if not the best places to publish content and engage with like-minded individuals. Content creators often find it difficult to gain traction outside of community-based platforms, which is why platforms such as Publish0x and Hive see such significant numbers in terms of traffic and engagement. What separates Hive from the majority though is the fact that your work is actually being recorded on the Hive blockchain. Only you can access your account via your personal keys, which ensures that you alone have custody of your content. This is very important in my book, as it grants your content longevity and security. This creates further confidence and encourages creators to begin and continue building on Hive.

The 2021 Milestone

Reaching a billion-dollar market cap in 2021 was a very significant milestone, perhaps more important than many realize. At this point, HIVE was trading above $3, which surprised even some of the Hive OGs. Wait until Web 3 is more established and we are in the heart of the next bull run. I think that Hive will be one of those projects displaying growth, price appreciation, and increased adoption. A project that reaches important milestones matched with organic growth usually goes on to display tremendous price appreciation.

The inherent Web 3 structure and tokenomics create a good case as to why Hive is destined to be king of the curb in this particular niche. Many platforms will limit earnings via the use of algorithms and “caps”, whereas in the world of Hive you are only limited by your own ability to impress. Entrepreneurs embark on a journey of independence for one very good reason, they are frustrated. They know that they are being held back by the ceiling of their current job.

The Side Hustle Is The Same

This is true even in the case of someone who chooses to blog as a side hustle. They don’t want to be restricted on a journey they are embarking on outside of their employment. This is meant to be an extension of growth. Not something that will once again be limited like their paycheck. Remove the ceiling from a dedicated and motivated individual and see what happens. This is exactly why there are so many “machine writers” on Hive. They have tasted the crisp air of freedom, the freedom to create as they will and without limit. Compound that with the ability to earn and you have an extremely powerful dynamic. It’s there, even if only realized by a few at this stage.

Final Thoughts

The entire structure of Hive is extremely compelling. I don’t know how anyone could pass up on the opportunity of becoming part of this community. There are those who battle with the initial concept of Hive but I would encourage them to push on. Spend time learning about Hive, it’s well worth your effort. Nothing in life that has meaningful value comes easy.

Disclaimer

First of all, I am not a financial advisor. All information provided on this website is strictly my own opinion and not financial advice. I do make use of affiliate links. Purchasing or interacting with any third-party company could result in me receiving a commission. In some instances, utilizing an affiliate link can also result in a bonus or discount.

This article was first published on Sapphire Crypto.

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